bayesRatings

Giants at Nationals

MLB · Saturday, Apr 18 · 3:05 PM CT · Nationals Park · Final SF 7 – WSH 6
← MLB / Apr 18

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789101112THE
SF0120021000017161
WSH1400000010006102
Team box
SF·WSH
16
hits
10
1
home runs
1
1
walks
5
11
strikeouts
8
158
pitches thrown
213
1
errors
2
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Heliot RamosSF3-5212
James WoodWSH1-3312
Matt ChapmanSF2-6101
Casey SchmittSF2-6001
Drew GilbertSF2-5001
Luis Garcia Jr.WSH1-3002
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Adrian HouserSF5.27421
Caleb Kilian (W)SF2.00012
Cade CavalliWSH4.07105
Cionel Perez (L)WSH2.02000

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
WSH +4
SF +4
123456789101112
largest lead: WSH 4 · SF 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SF 52%, WSH 48% · Updated Apr 18

Expected margin
SF by 1.1
Expected score
SF 5.6 – 4.5 WSH
Expected total
10.2
GiantsThe matchupNationals
−110Our fair odds+110
5.6Expected runs4.5
−0.03Power rating−0.22
3.4Runs / game5.6
4.3Allowed / game6.3
8.3Hits / game9.2
0.60Home runs / game1.10
2.0Walks drawn / game3.4
8−12Season record9−11
5−5Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SF chance · WSH chance
Our model fair52.4%47.6%
Kalshi52.7%51.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 3:05 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SFSan Francisco Giants−11052%−11252.7%———
WSHWashington Nationals+11048%−10751.8%———
SpreadSF by 1.1
SFSan Francisco Giants−1.1our margin————
WSHWashington Nationals+1.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 10.2
Over10.2our total————
Under10.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

San Francisco Giants by 1.1 expected
San Francisco Giants by 16 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 15 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 14 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 13 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 12 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 11 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 10 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 9 runs: 2%San Francisco Giants by 8 runs: 3%San Francisco Giants by 7 runs: 3%San Francisco Giants by 6 runs: 4%San Francisco Giants by 5 runs: 5%San Francisco Giants by 4 runs: 6%San Francisco Giants by 3 runs: 8%San Francisco Giants by 2 runs: 10%San Francisco Giants by 1 run: 10%Washington Nationals by 1 run: 15%Washington Nationals by 2 runs: 8%Washington Nationals by 3 runs: 6%Washington Nationals by 4 runs: 4%Washington Nationals by 5 runs: 3%Washington Nationals by 6 runs: 2%Washington Nationals by 7 runs: 2%Washington Nationals by 8 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 9 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 10 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 11 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 12 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 13 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 14 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 15 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 16 runs: <1%
← SF wins byWSH wins by →
San Francisco Giants wins by 2 or more46%
San Francisco Giants wins by 3 or more37%
Washington Nationals wins by 2 or more29%
Decided by one run25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

10.2 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 4%4 runs: 3%5 runs: 8%6 runs: 6%7 runs: 10%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 9%12 runs: 6%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 3%17 runs: 3%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 2%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: 1%23 runs: 1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%26 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 8.560%
Total over 10.543%
Total over 12.529%
Total from 9 to 1231%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
SFAdrian Houser SP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 5.06 ERA, 10 Kstarted
WSHCade Cavalli SP · last 3 starts: 12.0 IP, 4.50 ERA, 8 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SF·WSH
Apr 17 at WSH
last game
Apr 17 vs SF
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
8th straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 20+ games
SF·WSH
−0.03
rating (0 = average)
−0.22
3.4
runs / game
5.6
4.3
runs allowed / game
6.3
8−12
season record
9−11
3−7
home record
1−6
5−5
away record
8−5
W2
streak
L1
5−5
last 10
5−5
8.3
hits / game
9.2
0.60
home runs / game
1.10
2.0
walks drawn / game
3.4
7.5
batter strikeouts / game
8.1
8.9
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.6
0.60
errors / game
0.80

Rating Trend

SF · WSH · 24 days
San Francisco GiantsWashington Nationals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · WSH 4−6
Apr 17at WSHSF 10 − 5
Aug 10, 2025at SFWSH 8 − 0
Aug 9, 2025at SFWSH 4 − 2
Aug 8, 2025at SFSF 5 − 0
May 25, 2025at WSHSF 3 − 2
May 24, 2025at WSHWSH 3 − 0
May 23, 2025at WSHSF 4 − 0
Aug 8, 2024at WSHSF 9 − 5
Aug 7, 2024at WSHSF 7 − 4
Aug 6, 2024at WSHWSH 11 − 5

SF · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Apr 17at WSH10 − 5W
Apr 16at CIN3 − 0W
Apr 15at CIN3 − 8L
Apr 14at CIN1 − 2L
Apr 12at BAL2 − 6L
Apr 11at BAL2 − 6L
Apr 10at BAL6 − 3W
Apr 8vs PHI5 − 0W
Apr 7vs PHI6 − 0W
Apr 6vs PHI4 − 6L

WSH · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Apr 17vs SF5 − 10L
Apr 16at PIT8 − 7W
Apr 15at PIT0 − 2L
Apr 14at PIT5 − 4W
Apr 13at PIT5 − 16L
Apr 12at MIL8 − 6W
Apr 11at MIL3 − 1W
Apr 10at MIL7 − 3W
Apr 8vs STL1 − 6L
Apr 7vs STL6 − 7L