bayesRatings

Giants at Nationals

MLB · Friday, Apr 17 · 5:45 PM CT · Nationals Park · Final SF 10 – WSH 5
← MLB / Apr 17

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
SF06020010110152
WSH001201100580
Team box
SF·WSH
15
hits
8
3
home runs
2
3
walks
3
7
strikeouts
9
142
pitches thrown
166
2
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Heliot RamosSF1-4114
Matt ChapmanSF3-5103
Casey SchmittSF2-5211
Daylen LileWSH1-3212
Jose TenaWSH3-4101
Drew GilbertSF1-3211
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Logan Webb (W)SF6.07326
Zack Littell (L)WSH4.011814

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
WSH +7
SF +7
123456789
largest lead: WSH 0 · SF 7lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SF 51%, WSH 49% · Updated Apr 17

Expected margin
SF by 0.9
Expected score
SF 5.5 – 4.6 WSH
Expected total
10.1
GiantsThe matchupNationals
−106Our fair odds+106
5.5Expected runs4.6
−0.04Power rating−0.20
3.1Runs / game5.6
4.3Allowed / game6.2
7.9Hits / game9.2
0.47Home runs / game1.05
2.0Walks drawn / game3.4
7−12Season record9−10
4−6Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SF chance · WSH chance
Our model fair51.4%48.6%
Kalshi59.7%44.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:45 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SFSan Francisco Giants−10651%−14859.7%———
WSHWashington Nationals+10649%+12444.7%———
SpreadSF by 0.9
SFSan Francisco Giants−0.9our margin————
WSHWashington Nationals+0.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 10.1
Over10.1our total————
Under10.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

San Francisco Giants by 0.9 expected
San Francisco Giants by 15 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 14 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 13 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 12 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 11 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 10 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 9 runs: 2%San Francisco Giants by 8 runs: 2%San Francisco Giants by 7 runs: 3%San Francisco Giants by 6 runs: 4%San Francisco Giants by 5 runs: 5%San Francisco Giants by 4 runs: 6%San Francisco Giants by 3 runs: 8%San Francisco Giants by 2 runs: 10%San Francisco Giants by 1 run: 10%Washington Nationals by 1 run: 15%Washington Nationals by 2 runs: 8%Washington Nationals by 3 runs: 6%Washington Nationals by 4 runs: 5%Washington Nationals by 5 runs: 3%Washington Nationals by 6 runs: 2%Washington Nationals by 7 runs: 2%Washington Nationals by 8 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 9 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 10 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 11 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 12 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 13 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 14 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 15 runs: <1%
← SF wins byWSH wins by →
San Francisco Giants wins by 2 or more45%
San Francisco Giants wins by 3 or more35%
Washington Nationals wins by 2 or more30%
Decided by one run25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

10.1 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 4%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 8%6 runs: 6%7 runs: 10%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 9%12 runs: 6%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 3%17 runs: 3%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 2%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: 1%23 runs: 1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%26 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 8.559%
Total over 10.542%
Total over 12.528%
Total from 9 to 1231%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
SFLogan Webb SP · last 3 starts: 19.0 IP, 3.79 ERA, 14 Kstarted
WSHZack Littell SP · last 3 starts: 13.1 IP, 4.72 ERA, 11 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SF·WSH
Apr 16 at CIN
last game
Apr 16 at PIT
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
7th straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 19+ games
SF·WSH
−0.04
rating (0 = average)
−0.20
3.1
runs / game
5.6
4.3
runs allowed / game
6.2
7−12
season record
9−10
3−7
home record
1−5
4−5
away record
8−5
W1
streak
W1
4−6
last 10
6−4
7.9
hits / game
9.2
0.47
home runs / game
1.05
2.0
walks drawn / game
3.4
7.5
batter strikeouts / game
8.0
8.9
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.6
0.53
errors / game
0.84

Rating Trend

SF · WSH · 23 days
San Francisco GiantsWashington Nationals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · WSH 4−6
Aug 10, 2025at SFWSH 8 − 0
Aug 9, 2025at SFWSH 4 − 2
Aug 8, 2025at SFSF 5 − 0
May 25, 2025at WSHSF 3 − 2
May 24, 2025at WSHWSH 3 − 0
May 23, 2025at WSHSF 4 − 0
Aug 8, 2024at WSHSF 9 − 5
Aug 7, 2024at WSHSF 7 − 4
Aug 6, 2024at WSHWSH 11 − 5
Aug 5, 2024at WSHSF 4 − 1

SF · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Apr 16at CIN3 − 0W
Apr 15at CIN3 − 8L
Apr 14at CIN1 − 2L
Apr 12at BAL2 − 6L
Apr 11at BAL2 − 6L
Apr 10at BAL6 − 3W
Apr 8vs PHI5 − 0W
Apr 7vs PHI6 − 0W
Apr 6vs PHI4 − 6L
Apr 5vs NYM2 − 5L

WSH · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Apr 16at PIT8 − 7W
Apr 15at PIT0 − 2L
Apr 14at PIT5 − 4W
Apr 13at PIT5 − 16L
Apr 12at MIL8 − 6W
Apr 11at MIL3 − 1W
Apr 10at MIL7 − 3W
Apr 8vs STL1 − 6L
Apr 7vs STL6 − 7L
Apr 6vs STL9 − 6W