bayesRatings

Braves at Phillies

MLB · Friday, Apr 17 · 5:40 PM CT · Citizens Bank Park · Final ATL 9 – PHI 0
← MLB / Apr 17

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
ATL2410000119120
PHI000000000060
Team box
ATL·PHI
12
hits
6
4
home runs
0
4
walks
3
5
strikeouts
5
146
pitches thrown
164
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Austin RileyATL2-5224
Michael Harris IIATL3-4211
Dominic SmithATL1-5111
Bryce HarperPHI3-4000
Matt OlsonATL1-2101
Mike YastrzemskiATL1-3001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Martin Perez (W)ATL6.04024
Jose Suarez (S)ATL3.02011
Taijuan Walker (L)PHI4.07734

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
PHI +9
ATL +9
123456789
largest lead: PHI 0 · ATL 9lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ATL 47%, PHI 53% · Updated Apr 17

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
ATL 4.5 – 4.4 PHI
Expected total
8.9
BravesThe matchupPhillies
+111Our fair odds−111
4.5Expected runs4.4
+0.08Power rating+0.09
5.6Runs / game4.0
3.3Allowed / game5.4
9.5Hits / game7.7
1.26Home runs / game1.11
3.3Walks drawn / game3.3
12−7Season record8−10
6−4Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ATL chance · PHI chance
Our model fair47.4%52.6%
Kalshi53.7%50.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ATLAtlanta Braves+11147%−11653.7%———
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies−11153%−10350.7%———
Spreadabout even
ATLAtlanta Braves−0.2our margin————
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies+0.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.9
Over8.9our total————
Under8.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Atlanta Braves by 13 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 12 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 11 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 10 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 9 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 8 runs: 2%Atlanta Braves by 7 runs: 2%Atlanta Braves by 6 runs: 3%Atlanta Braves by 5 runs: 4%Atlanta Braves by 4 runs: 6%Atlanta Braves by 3 runs: 7%Atlanta Braves by 2 runs: 10%Atlanta Braves by 1 run: 11%Philadelphia Phillies by 1 run: 17%Philadelphia Phillies by 2 runs: 9%Philadelphia Phillies by 3 runs: 7%Philadelphia Phillies by 4 runs: 5%Philadelphia Phillies by 5 runs: 4%Philadelphia Phillies by 6 runs: 3%Philadelphia Phillies by 7 runs: 2%Philadelphia Phillies by 8 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 9 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 10 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 11 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 12 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 13 runs: <1%
← ATL wins byPHI wins by →
Atlanta Braves wins by 2 or more38%
Atlanta Braves wins by 3 or more28%
Philadelphia Phillies wins by 2 or more34%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.9 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.569%
Total over 8.549%
Total over 10.532%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
ATLMartin Perez SP · last 3 starts: 13.2 IP, 5.27 ERA, 5 Kstarted
PHITaijuan Walker SP · last 3 starts: 14.2 IP, 7.36 ERA, 12 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ATL·PHI
Apr 15 vs MIA
last game
Apr 15 vs CHC
1 day
days of rest
1 day
6
games in last 7 days
6
road after a home game
home / road
7th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 18+ games
ATL·PHI
+0.08
rating (0 = average)
+0.09
5.6
runs / game
4.0
3.3
runs allowed / game
5.4
12−7
season record
8−10
8−4
home record
5−7
4−3
away record
3−3
W2
streak
L2
6−4
last 10
3−7
9.5
hits / game
7.7
1.26
home runs / game
1.11
3.3
walks drawn / game
3.3
7.5
batter strikeouts / game
8.7
8.2
pitcher strikeouts / game
10.2
0.47
errors / game
0.78

Rating Trend

ATL · PHI · 23 days
Atlanta BravesPhiladelphia Phillies
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · PHI 7−3
Aug 31, 2025at PHIATL 3 − 1
Aug 30, 2025at PHIPHI 3 − 2
Aug 29, 2025at PHIPHI 2 − 1
Aug 28, 2025at PHIPHI 19 − 4
Jun 29, 2025at ATLPHI 2 − 1
Jun 28, 2025at ATLATL 6 − 1
Jun 27, 2025at ATLPHI 13 − 0
May 29, 2025at PHIATL 9 − 3
May 29, 2025at PHIPHI 5 − 4
May 27, 2025at PHIPHI 2 − 0

ATL · Last 10

6−4 · streak W2
Apr 15vs MIA6 − 3W
Apr 14vs MIA6 − 5W
Apr 13vs MIA4 − 10L
Apr 12vs CLE13 − 1W
Apr 11vs CLE0 − 6L
Apr 10vs CLE11 − 5W
Apr 8at LAA8 − 2W
Apr 7at LAA7 − 2W
Apr 6at LAA2 − 6L
Apr 5at ARI5 − 6L

PHI · Last 10

3−7 · streak L2
Apr 15vs CHC2 − 11L
Apr 14vs CHC4 − 10L
Apr 13vs CHC13 − 7W
Apr 12vs ARI3 − 4L
Apr 11vs ARI4 − 3W
Apr 10vs ARI4 − 5L
Apr 8at SF0 − 5L
Apr 7at SF0 − 6L
Apr 6at SF6 − 4W
Apr 5at COL1 − 4L