bayesRatings

Cubs at Phillies

MLB · Wednesday, Apr 15 · 5:40 PM CT · Citizens Bank Park · Final CHC 11 – PHI 2
← MLB / Apr 15

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CHC00302410111150
PHI100000001251
Team box
CHC·PHI
15
hits
5
2
home runs
2
2
walks
1
8
strikeouts
12
133
pitches thrown
163
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Nico HoernerCHC3-5215
Dansby SwansonCHC3-5212
Matt ShawCHC3-4302
Bryce HarperPHI1-4111
Trea TurnerPHI1-2111
Seiya SuzukiCHC2-4100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Shota Imanaga (W)CHC6.031111
Jesus Luzardo (L)PHI5.112814

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
PHI +10
CHC +10
123456789
largest lead: PHI 1 · CHC 10lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CHC 48%, PHI 52% · Updated Apr 15

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
CHC 4.4 – 4.3 PHI
Expected total
8.7
CubsThe matchupPhillies
+109Our fair odds−109
4.4Expected runs4.3
+0.12Power rating+0.10
4.9Runs / game4.1
4.3Allowed / game5.1
8.1Hits / game7.9
1.00Home runs / game1.06
4.9Walks drawn / game3.4
8−9Season record8−9
5−5Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CHC chance · PHI chance
Our model fair47.8%52.2%
Kalshi45.7%58.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CHCChicago Cubs+10948%+11945.7%———
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies−10952%−14258.7%———
Spreadabout even
CHCChicago Cubs−0.1our margin————
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies+0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.7
Over8.7our total————
Under8.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Chicago Cubs by 13 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 12 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 11 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 10 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 9 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 8 runs: 2%Chicago Cubs by 7 runs: 2%Chicago Cubs by 6 runs: 3%Chicago Cubs by 5 runs: 4%Chicago Cubs by 4 runs: 6%Chicago Cubs by 3 runs: 7%Chicago Cubs by 2 runs: 10%Chicago Cubs by 1 run: 11%Philadelphia Phillies by 1 run: 18%Philadelphia Phillies by 2 runs: 10%Philadelphia Phillies by 3 runs: 7%Philadelphia Phillies by 4 runs: 5%Philadelphia Phillies by 5 runs: 4%Philadelphia Phillies by 6 runs: 3%Philadelphia Phillies by 7 runs: 2%Philadelphia Phillies by 8 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 9 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 10 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 11 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 12 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 13 runs: <1%
← CHC wins byPHI wins by →
Chicago Cubs wins by 2 or more37%
Chicago Cubs wins by 3 or more27%
Philadelphia Phillies wins by 2 or more34%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.7 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.567%
Total over 8.547%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CHCShota Imanaga SP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 2.81 ERA, 20 Kstarted
PHIJesus Luzardo SP · last 3 starts: 17.1 IP, 6.23 ERA, 26 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CHC·PHI
Apr 14 at PHI
last game
Apr 14 vs CHC
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
3rd straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 17+ games
CHC·PHI
+0.12
rating (0 = average)
+0.10
4.9
runs / game
4.1
4.3
runs allowed / game
5.1
8−9
season record
8−9
4−5
home record
5−6
4−4
away record
3−3
W1
streak
L1
5−5
last 10
4−6
8.1
hits / game
7.9
1.00
home runs / game
1.06
4.9
walks drawn / game
3.4
8.9
batter strikeouts / game
8.5
8.4
pitcher strikeouts / game
10.3
0.47
errors / game
0.76

Rating Trend

CHC · PHI · 21 days
Chicago CubsPhiladelphia Phillies
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · PHI 6−4
Apr 14at PHICHC 10 − 4
Apr 13at PHIPHI 13 − 7
Jun 11, 2025at PHIPHI 7 − 2
Jun 10, 2025at PHICHC 8 − 4
Jun 9, 2025at PHIPHI 4 − 3
Apr 27, 2025at CHCPHI 3 − 1
Apr 26, 2025at CHCPHI 10 − 4
Apr 25, 2025at CHCCHC 4 − 0
Sep 25, 2024at PHIPHI 9 − 6
Sep 24, 2024at PHICHC 10 − 4

CHC · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Apr 14at PHI10 − 4W
Apr 13at PHI7 − 13L
Apr 12vs PIT7 − 6W
Apr 11vs PIT3 − 4L
Apr 10vs PIT0 − 2L
Apr 8at TB6 − 2W
Apr 7at TB9 − 2W
Apr 6at TB4 − 6L
Apr 5at CLE5 − 6L
Apr 5at CLE1 − 0W

PHI · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Apr 14vs CHC4 − 10L
Apr 13vs CHC13 − 7W
Apr 12vs ARI3 − 4L
Apr 11vs ARI4 − 3W
Apr 10vs ARI4 − 5L
Apr 8at SF0 − 5L
Apr 7at SF0 − 6L
Apr 6at SF6 − 4W
Apr 5at COL1 − 4L
Apr 4at COL2 − 1W