bayesRatings

Cubs at Phillies

MLB · Monday, Apr 13 · 5:40 PM CT · Citizens Bank Park · Final CHC 7 – PHI 13
← MLB / Apr 13

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CHC0002000507111
PHI1120531013153
Team box
CHC·PHI
11
hits
15
1
home runs
2
5
walks
5
12
strikeouts
5
152
pitches thrown
164
1
errors
3
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Kyle SchwarberPHI2-3423
J.T. RealmutoPHI3-5003
Brandon MarshPHI3-4202
Dansby SwansonCHC1-3212
Moises BallesterosCHC2-2101
Adolis GarciaPHI2-4201
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Javier Assad (L)CHC4.111923
Cristopher Sanchez (W)PHI6.06238

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
PHI +11
CHC +11
123456789
largest lead: PHI 11 · CHC 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CHC 48%, PHI 52% · Updated Apr 13

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
CHC 4.2 – 4.2 PHI
Expected total
8.4
CubsThe matchupPhillies
+108Our fair odds−108
4.2Expected runs4.2
+0.12Power rating+0.10
4.4Runs / game3.5
3.7Allowed / game4.6
7.5Hits / game7.4
1.00Home runs / game1.00
4.8Walks drawn / game3.5
7−8Season record7−8
5−5Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CHC chance · PHI chance
Our model fair48.0%52.0%
Kalshi40.7%63.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CHCChicago Cubs+10848%+14640.7%———
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies−10852%−17563.6%———
Spreadabout even
CHCChicago Cubs−0.1our margin————
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies+0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.4
Over8.4our total————
Under8.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Chicago Cubs by 12 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 11 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 10 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 9 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 8 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 7 runs: 2%Chicago Cubs by 6 runs: 3%Chicago Cubs by 5 runs: 4%Chicago Cubs by 4 runs: 6%Chicago Cubs by 3 runs: 7%Chicago Cubs by 2 runs: 10%Chicago Cubs by 1 run: 11%Philadelphia Phillies by 1 run: 18%Philadelphia Phillies by 2 runs: 10%Philadelphia Phillies by 3 runs: 7%Philadelphia Phillies by 4 runs: 5%Philadelphia Phillies by 5 runs: 4%Philadelphia Phillies by 6 runs: 3%Philadelphia Phillies by 7 runs: 2%Philadelphia Phillies by 8 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 9 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 10 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 11 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 12 runs: <1%
← CHC wins byPHI wins by →
Chicago Cubs wins by 2 or more37%
Chicago Cubs wins by 3 or more27%
Philadelphia Phillies wins by 2 or more34%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.4 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.565%
Total over 8.545%
Total over 10.528%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CHCJavier Assad RP · last 3 starts: 15.0 IP, 1.20 ERA, 11 Kstarted
PHICristopher Sanchez SP · last 3 starts: 16.1 IP, 1.65 ERA, 23 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CHC·PHI
Apr 12 vs PIT
last game
Apr 12 vs ARI
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
road after a home game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 15+ games
CHC·PHI
+0.12
rating (0 = average)
+0.10
4.4
runs / game
3.5
3.7
runs allowed / game
4.6
7−8
season record
7−8
4−5
home record
4−5
3−3
away record
3−3
W1
streak
L1
5−5
last 10
5−5
7.5
hits / game
7.4
1.00
home runs / game
1.00
4.8
walks drawn / game
3.5
8.6
batter strikeouts / game
8.8
8.7
pitcher strikeouts / game
10.1
0.47
errors / game
0.60

Rating Trend

CHC · PHI · 19 days
Chicago CubsPhiladelphia Phillies
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · PHI 6−4
Jun 11, 2025at PHIPHI 7 − 2
Jun 10, 2025at PHICHC 8 − 4
Jun 9, 2025at PHIPHI 4 − 3
Apr 27, 2025at CHCPHI 3 − 1
Apr 26, 2025at CHCPHI 10 − 4
Apr 25, 2025at CHCCHC 4 − 0
Sep 25, 2024at PHIPHI 9 − 6
Sep 24, 2024at PHICHC 10 − 4
Sep 23, 2024at PHIPHI 6 − 2
Jul 4, 2024at CHCCHC 10 − 2

CHC · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Apr 12vs PIT7 − 6W
Apr 11vs PIT3 − 4L
Apr 10vs PIT0 − 2L
Apr 8at TB6 − 2W
Apr 7at TB9 − 2W
Apr 6at TB4 − 6L
Apr 5at CLE5 − 6L
Apr 5at CLE1 − 0W
Apr 3at CLE1 − 4L
Apr 1vs LAA6 − 2W

PHI · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Apr 12vs ARI3 − 4L
Apr 11vs ARI4 − 3W
Apr 10vs ARI4 − 5L
Apr 8at SF0 − 5L
Apr 7at SF0 − 6L
Apr 6at SF6 − 4W
Apr 5at COL1 − 4L
Apr 4at COL2 − 1W
Apr 3at COL10 − 1W
Apr 1vs WSH6 − 5W