bayesRatings

Cubs at Phillies

MLB · Tuesday, Apr 14 · 5:40 PM CT · Citizens Bank Park · Final CHC 10 – PHI 4
← MLB / Apr 14

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CHC00201400310150
PHI030000010481
Team box
CHC·PHI
15
hits
8
1
home runs
1
6
walks
1
11
strikeouts
8
137
pitches thrown
185
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Carson KellyCHC2-4213
Edmundo SosaPHI2-4213
Alex BregmanCHC3-5003
Nico HoernerCHC2-6103
Ian HappCHC2-5001
Michael BuschCHC2-4100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Riley MartinCHC1.00001
Colin Rea (W)CHC6.04305
Aaron NolaPHI5.08325
Tim Mayza (L)PHI0.11320

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
PHI +6
CHC +6
123456789
largest lead: PHI 3 · CHC 6lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CHC 47%, PHI 53% · Updated Apr 14

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
PHI 4.2 – 4.2 CHC
Expected total
8.5
CubsThe matchupPhillies
+112Our fair odds−112
4.2Expected runs4.2
+0.10Power rating+0.12
4.6Runs / game4.1
4.3Allowed / game4.8
7.7Hits / game7.9
1.00Home runs / game1.06
4.8Walks drawn / game3.6
7−9Season record8−8
4−6Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CHC chance · PHI chance
Our model fair47.2%52.8%
Kalshi45.7%58.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CHCChicago Cubs+11247%+11945.7%———
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies−11253%−14258.7%———
Spreadabout even
CHCChicago CubsPKour margin————
PHIPhiladelphia PhilliesPKour margin————
Totalwe expect 8.5
Over8.5our total————
Under8.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Chicago Cubs by 12 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 11 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 10 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 9 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 8 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 7 runs: 2%Chicago Cubs by 6 runs: 3%Chicago Cubs by 5 runs: 4%Chicago Cubs by 4 runs: 6%Chicago Cubs by 3 runs: 7%Chicago Cubs by 2 runs: 10%Chicago Cubs by 1 run: 11%Philadelphia Phillies by 1 run: 18%Philadelphia Phillies by 2 runs: 10%Philadelphia Phillies by 3 runs: 7%Philadelphia Phillies by 4 runs: 5%Philadelphia Phillies by 5 runs: 4%Philadelphia Phillies by 6 runs: 3%Philadelphia Phillies by 7 runs: 2%Philadelphia Phillies by 8 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 9 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 10 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 11 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 12 runs: <1%
← CHC wins byPHI wins by →
Philadelphia Phillies wins by 2 or more35%
Philadelphia Phillies wins by 3 or more25%
Chicago Cubs wins by 2 or more36%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.5 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.565%
Total over 8.546%
Total over 10.529%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CHCRiley Martin RP · no recent starts on recordstarted
PHIAaron Nola SP · last 3 starts: 17.1 IP, 3.63 ERA, 19 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CHC·PHI
Apr 13 at PHI
last game
Apr 13 vs CHC
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
2nd straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 16+ games
CHC·PHI
+0.10
rating (0 = average)
+0.12
4.6
runs / game
4.1
4.3
runs allowed / game
4.8
7−9
season record
8−8
4−5
home record
5−5
3−4
away record
3−3
L1
streak
W1
4−6
last 10
5−5
7.7
hits / game
7.9
1.00
home runs / game
1.06
4.8
walks drawn / game
3.6
8.8
batter strikeouts / game
8.6
8.4
pitcher strikeouts / game
10.2
0.50
errors / game
0.75

Rating Trend

CHC · PHI · 20 days
Chicago CubsPhiladelphia Phillies
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · PHI 7−3
Apr 13at PHIPHI 13 − 7
Jun 11, 2025at PHIPHI 7 − 2
Jun 10, 2025at PHICHC 8 − 4
Jun 9, 2025at PHIPHI 4 − 3
Apr 27, 2025at CHCPHI 3 − 1
Apr 26, 2025at CHCPHI 10 − 4
Apr 25, 2025at CHCCHC 4 − 0
Sep 25, 2024at PHIPHI 9 − 6
Sep 24, 2024at PHICHC 10 − 4
Sep 23, 2024at PHIPHI 6 − 2

CHC · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Apr 13at PHI7 − 13L
Apr 12vs PIT7 − 6W
Apr 11vs PIT3 − 4L
Apr 10vs PIT0 − 2L
Apr 8at TB6 − 2W
Apr 7at TB9 − 2W
Apr 6at TB4 − 6L
Apr 5at CLE5 − 6L
Apr 5at CLE1 − 0W
Apr 3at CLE1 − 4L

PHI · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Apr 13vs CHC13 − 7W
Apr 12vs ARI3 − 4L
Apr 11vs ARI4 − 3W
Apr 10vs ARI4 − 5L
Apr 8at SF0 − 5L
Apr 7at SF0 − 6L
Apr 6at SF6 − 4W
Apr 5at COL1 − 4L
Apr 4at COL2 − 1W
Apr 3at COL10 − 1W