bayesRatings

Braves at Phillies

MLB · Sunday, Apr 19 · 6:20 PM CT · Citizens Bank Park · Final ATL 4 – PHI 2
← MLB / Apr 19

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
ATL001030000480
PHI200000000260
Team box
ATL·PHI
8
hits
6
1
home runs
1
4
walks
4
9
strikeouts
7
155
pitches thrown
165
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Michael Harris IIATL3-3211
Kyle SchwarberPHI2-4112
Ozzie AlbiesATL1-3001
Austin RileyATL1-4001
Matt OlsonATL0-5101
Dominic SmithATL1-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Grant HolmesATL4.24214
Tyler Kinley (W)ATL1.00011
Raisel Iglesias (S)ATL1.01011
Andrew Painter (L)PHI4.05314

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
PHI +3
ATL +3
123456789
largest lead: PHI 2 · ATL 2lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ATL 49%, PHI 51% · Updated Apr 19

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
ATL 4.6 – 4.2 PHI
Expected total
8.8
BravesThe matchupPhillies
+105Our fair odds−105
4.6Expected runs4.2
+0.11Power rating+0.06
5.6Runs / game3.6
3.0Allowed / game5.5
9.6Hits / game7.5
1.33Home runs / game1.05
3.3Walks drawn / game3.1
14−7Season record8−12
8−2Last 102−8

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ATL chance · PHI chance
Our model fair48.8%51.2%
Kalshi53.7%50.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:20 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ATLAtlanta Braves+10549%−11653.7%———
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies−10551%−10350.7%———
Spreadabout even
ATLAtlanta Braves−0.4our margin————
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies+0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.8
Over8.8our total————
Under8.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Atlanta Braves by 13 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 12 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 11 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 10 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 9 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 8 runs: 2%Atlanta Braves by 7 runs: 2%Atlanta Braves by 6 runs: 3%Atlanta Braves by 5 runs: 5%Atlanta Braves by 4 runs: 6%Atlanta Braves by 3 runs: 8%Atlanta Braves by 2 runs: 10%Atlanta Braves by 1 run: 11%Philadelphia Phillies by 1 run: 17%Philadelphia Phillies by 2 runs: 9%Philadelphia Phillies by 3 runs: 7%Philadelphia Phillies by 4 runs: 5%Philadelphia Phillies by 5 runs: 4%Philadelphia Phillies by 6 runs: 3%Philadelphia Phillies by 7 runs: 2%Philadelphia Phillies by 8 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 9 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 10 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 11 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 12 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 13 runs: <1%
← ATL wins byPHI wins by →
Atlanta Braves wins by 2 or more40%
Atlanta Braves wins by 3 or more30%
Philadelphia Phillies wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.8 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.568%
Total over 8.548%
Total over 10.531%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
ATLGrant Holmes SP · last 3 starts: 16.2 IP, 2.70 ERA, 13 Kstarted
PHIAndrew Painter SP · last 2 starts: 9.1 IP, 4.82 ERA, 9 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ATL·PHI
Apr 18 at PHI
last game
Apr 18 vs ATL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
3rd straight road game
home / road
9th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 20+ games
ATL·PHI
+0.11
rating (0 = average)
+0.06
5.6
runs / game
3.6
3.0
runs allowed / game
5.5
14−7
season record
8−12
8−4
home record
5−9
6−3
away record
3−3
W4
streak
L4
8−2
last 10
2−8
9.6
hits / game
7.5
1.33
home runs / game
1.05
3.3
walks drawn / game
3.1
7.6
batter strikeouts / game
8.6
8.1
pitcher strikeouts / game
10.0
0.43
errors / game
0.75

Rating Trend

ATL · PHI · 25 days
Atlanta BravesPhiladelphia Phillies
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · PHI 5−5
Apr 18at PHIATL 3 − 1
Apr 17at PHIATL 9 − 0
Aug 31, 2025at PHIATL 3 − 1
Aug 30, 2025at PHIPHI 3 − 2
Aug 29, 2025at PHIPHI 2 − 1
Aug 28, 2025at PHIPHI 19 − 4
Jun 29, 2025at ATLPHI 2 − 1
Jun 28, 2025at ATLATL 6 − 1
Jun 27, 2025at ATLPHI 13 − 0
May 29, 2025at PHIATL 9 − 3

ATL · Last 10

8−2 · streak W4
Apr 18at PHI3 − 1W
Apr 17at PHI9 − 0W
Apr 15vs MIA6 − 3W
Apr 14vs MIA6 − 5W
Apr 13vs MIA4 − 10L
Apr 12vs CLE13 − 1W
Apr 11vs CLE0 − 6L
Apr 10vs CLE11 − 5W
Apr 8at LAA8 − 2W
Apr 7at LAA7 − 2W

PHI · Last 10

2−8 · streak L4
Apr 18vs ATL1 − 3L
Apr 17vs ATL0 − 9L
Apr 15vs CHC2 − 11L
Apr 14vs CHC4 − 10L
Apr 13vs CHC13 − 7W
Apr 12vs ARI3 − 4L
Apr 11vs ARI4 − 3W
Apr 10vs ARI4 − 5L
Apr 8at SF0 − 5L
Apr 7at SF0 − 6L