bayesRatings

Braves at Nationals

MLB · Tuesday, Apr 21 · 5:45 PM CT · Nationals Park · Final ATL 4 – WSH 11
← MLB / Apr 21

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
ATL011010010480
WSH3100103311100
Team box
ATL·WSH
8
hits
10
2
home runs
2
3
walks
12
6
strikeouts
10
201
pitches thrown
153
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Luis Garcia Jr.WSH4-5103
Curtis MeadWSH1-2213
Eli WhiteATL1-2111
Drake BaldwinATL1-4211
James WoodWSH1-2311
Jacob YoungWSH1-4102
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Reynaldo Lopez (L)ATL1.05431
Foster Griffin (W)WSH6.05313

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
WSH +7
ATL +7
123456789
largest lead: WSH 7 · ATL 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ATL 57%, WSH 43% · Updated Apr 21

Expected margin
ATL by 2.0
Expected score
ATL 6.4 – 4.4 WSH
Expected total
10.8
BravesThe matchupNationals
−131Our fair odds+131
6.4Expected runs4.4
+0.13Power rating−0.23
5.7Runs / game5.4
3.0Allowed / game6.2
9.4Hits / game8.8
1.30Home runs / game1.09
3.3Walks drawn / game3.3
16−7Season record10−13
8−2Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ATL chance · WSH chance
Our model fair56.8%43.2%
Kalshi61.7%42.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:45 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ATLAtlanta Braves−13157%−16161.7%———
WSHWashington Nationals+13143%+13442.7%———
SpreadATL by 2.0
ATLAtlanta Braves−2our margin————
WSHWashington Nationals+2our margin————
Totalwe expect 10.8
Over10.8our total————
Under10.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Atlanta Braves by 2.0 expected
Atlanta Braves by 18 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 17 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 16 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 15 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 14 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 13 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 12 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 11 runs: 2%Atlanta Braves by 10 runs: 2%Atlanta Braves by 9 runs: 3%Atlanta Braves by 8 runs: 3%Atlanta Braves by 7 runs: 4%Atlanta Braves by 6 runs: 5%Atlanta Braves by 5 runs: 6%Atlanta Braves by 4 runs: 7%Atlanta Braves by 3 runs: 8%Atlanta Braves by 2 runs: 10%Atlanta Braves by 1 run: 9%Washington Nationals by 1 run: 14%Washington Nationals by 2 runs: 7%Washington Nationals by 3 runs: 5%Washington Nationals by 4 runs: 4%Washington Nationals by 5 runs: 3%Washington Nationals by 6 runs: 2%Washington Nationals by 7 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 8 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 9 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 10 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 11 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 12 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 13 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 14 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 15 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 16 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 17 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 18 runs: <1%
← ATL wins byWSH wins by →
Atlanta Braves wins by 2 or more53%
Atlanta Braves wins by 3 or more44%
Washington Nationals wins by 2 or more24%
Decided by one run23%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

10.8 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 3%4 runs: 3%5 runs: 7%6 runs: 5%7 runs: 9%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 9%12 runs: 6%13 runs: 7%14 runs: 5%15 runs: 5%16 runs: 3%17 runs: 3%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 2%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: 1%23 runs: 1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%26 runs: <1%27 runs: <1%28 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 8.564%
Total over 10.548%
Total over 12.533%
Total from 9 to 1231%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
ATLReynaldo Lopez RP · last 3 starts: 14.2 IP, 2.45 ERA, 16 Kstarted
WSHFoster Griffin SP · last 3 starts: 15.2 IP, 2.87 ERA, 14 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ATL·WSH
Apr 20 at WSH
last game
Apr 20 vs ATL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
5th straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 23+ games
ATL·WSH
+0.13
rating (0 = average)
−0.23
5.7
runs / game
5.4
3.0
runs allowed / game
6.2
16−7
season record
10−13
8−4
home record
2−8
8−3
away record
8−5
W6
streak
L1
8−2
last 10
5−5
9.4
hits / game
8.8
1.30
home runs / game
1.09
3.3
walks drawn / game
3.3
7.6
batter strikeouts / game
8.1
8.1
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.7
0.43
errors / game
1.00

Rating Trend

ATL · WSH · 27 days
Atlanta BravesWashington Nationals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · WSH 3−7
Apr 20at WSHATL 9 − 4
Sep 24, 2025at ATLWSH 4 − 3
Sep 23, 2025at ATLATL 3 − 2
Sep 22, 2025at ATLATL 11 − 5
Sep 17, 2025at WSHATL 9 − 4
Sep 16, 2025at WSHATL 5 − 0
Sep 16, 2025at WSHATL 6 − 3
Sep 15, 2025at WSHATL 11 − 3
May 22, 2025at WSHWSH 8 − 7
May 20, 2025at WSHWSH 5 − 3

ATL · Last 10

8−2 · streak W6
Apr 20at WSH9 − 4W
Apr 19at PHI4 − 2W
Apr 18at PHI3 − 1W
Apr 17at PHI9 − 0W
Apr 15vs MIA6 − 3W
Apr 14vs MIA6 − 5W
Apr 13vs MIA4 − 10L
Apr 12vs CLE13 − 1W
Apr 11vs CLE0 − 6L
Apr 10vs CLE11 − 5W

WSH · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Apr 20vs ATL4 − 9L
Apr 19vs SF3 − 0W
Apr 18vs SF6 − 7L
Apr 17vs SF5 − 10L
Apr 16at PIT8 − 7W
Apr 15at PIT0 − 2L
Apr 14at PIT5 − 4W
Apr 13at PIT5 − 16L
Apr 12at MIL8 − 6W
Apr 11at MIL3 − 1W