bayesRatings

Braves at Nationals

MLB · Monday, Apr 20 · 5:45 PM CT · Nationals Park · Final ATL 9 – WSH 4
← MLB / Apr 20

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
ATL000205002971
WSH200101000433
Team box
ATL·WSH
7
hits
3
1
home runs
1
3
walks
2
6
strikeouts
9
126
pitches thrown
145
1
errors
3
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Matt OlsonATL1-4113
Drake BaldwinATL2-4202
Daylen LileWSH1-3111
Jacob YoungWSH1-4002
Dominic SmithATL1-4001
Ozzie AlbiesATL1-4101
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Bryce Elder (W)ATL6.23326
Jake Irvin (L)WSH5.03304

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
WSH +5
ATL +5
123456789
largest lead: WSH 2 · ATL 5lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ATL 56%, WSH 44% · Updated Apr 20

Expected margin
ATL by 1.9
Expected score
ATL 6.3 – 4.4 WSH
Expected total
10.7
BravesThe matchupNationals
−126Our fair odds+126
6.3Expected runs4.4
+0.11Power rating−0.21
5.5Runs / game5.5
3.0Allowed / game6.1
9.5Hits / game9.1
1.32Home runs / game1.09
3.4Walks drawn / game3.4
15−7Season record10−12
8−2Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ATL chance · WSH chance
Our model fair55.7%44.3%
Kalshi61.7%42.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:45 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ATLAtlanta Braves−12656%−16161.7%———
WSHWashington Nationals+12644%+13442.7%———
SpreadATL by 1.9
ATLAtlanta Braves−1.9our margin————
WSHWashington Nationals+1.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 10.7
Over10.7our total————
Under10.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Atlanta Braves by 1.9 expected
Atlanta Braves by 18 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 17 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 16 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 15 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 14 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 13 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 12 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 11 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 10 runs: 2%Atlanta Braves by 9 runs: 2%Atlanta Braves by 8 runs: 3%Atlanta Braves by 7 runs: 4%Atlanta Braves by 6 runs: 5%Atlanta Braves by 5 runs: 6%Atlanta Braves by 4 runs: 7%Atlanta Braves by 3 runs: 8%Atlanta Braves by 2 runs: 10%Atlanta Braves by 1 run: 9%Washington Nationals by 1 run: 14%Washington Nationals by 2 runs: 7%Washington Nationals by 3 runs: 5%Washington Nationals by 4 runs: 4%Washington Nationals by 5 runs: 3%Washington Nationals by 6 runs: 2%Washington Nationals by 7 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 8 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 9 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 10 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 11 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 12 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 13 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 14 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 15 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 16 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 17 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 18 runs: <1%
← ATL wins byWSH wins by →
Atlanta Braves wins by 2 or more52%
Atlanta Braves wins by 3 or more43%
Washington Nationals wins by 2 or more25%
Decided by one run23%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

10.7 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 4%4 runs: 3%5 runs: 7%6 runs: 5%7 runs: 9%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 9%12 runs: 6%13 runs: 7%14 runs: 5%15 runs: 5%16 runs: 3%17 runs: 3%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 2%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: 1%23 runs: 1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%26 runs: <1%27 runs: <1%28 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 8.563%
Total over 10.547%
Total over 12.532%
Total from 9 to 1231%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
ATLBryce Elder SP · last 3 starts: 17.1 IP, 1.04 ERA, 18 Kstarted
WSHJake Irvin SP · last 3 starts: 14.0 IP, 7.07 ERA, 14 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ATL·WSH
Apr 19 at PHI
last game
Apr 19 vs SF
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
4th straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 22+ games
ATL·WSH
+0.11
rating (0 = average)
−0.21
5.5
runs / game
5.5
3.0
runs allowed / game
6.1
15−7
season record
10−12
8−4
home record
2−7
7−3
away record
8−5
W5
streak
W1
8−2
last 10
6−4
9.5
hits / game
9.1
1.32
home runs / game
1.09
3.4
walks drawn / game
3.4
7.6
batter strikeouts / game
8.0
8.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.8
0.41
errors / game
0.91

Rating Trend

ATL · WSH · 26 days
Atlanta BravesWashington Nationals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · WSH 3−7
Sep 24, 2025at ATLWSH 4 − 3
Sep 23, 2025at ATLATL 3 − 2
Sep 22, 2025at ATLATL 11 − 5
Sep 17, 2025at WSHATL 9 − 4
Sep 16, 2025at WSHATL 5 − 0
Sep 16, 2025at WSHATL 6 − 3
Sep 15, 2025at WSHATL 11 − 3
May 22, 2025at WSHWSH 8 − 7
May 20, 2025at WSHWSH 5 − 3
May 15, 2025at ATLATL 5 − 2

ATL · Last 10

8−2 · streak W5
Apr 19at PHI4 − 2W
Apr 18at PHI3 − 1W
Apr 17at PHI9 − 0W
Apr 15vs MIA6 − 3W
Apr 14vs MIA6 − 5W
Apr 13vs MIA4 − 10L
Apr 12vs CLE13 − 1W
Apr 11vs CLE0 − 6L
Apr 10vs CLE11 − 5W
Apr 8at LAA8 − 2W

WSH · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Apr 19vs SF3 − 0W
Apr 18vs SF6 − 7L
Apr 17vs SF5 − 10L
Apr 16at PIT8 − 7W
Apr 15at PIT0 − 2L
Apr 14at PIT5 − 4W
Apr 13at PIT5 − 16L
Apr 12at MIL8 − 6W
Apr 11at MIL3 − 1W
Apr 10at MIL7 − 3W