bayesRatings

Phillies at Braves

MLB · Saturday, Apr 25 · 6:15 PM CT · Truist Park · Final PHI 8 – ATL 5
← MLB / Apr 25

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team12345678910THE
PHI10011001048110
ATL0002020001590
Team box
PHI·ATL
11
hits
9
0
home runs
0
3
walks
4
8
strikeouts
8
163
pitches thrown
163
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Bryce HarperPHI2-3204
Ozzie AlbiesATL3-5101
Michael Harris IIATL2-4002
Brandon MarshPHI2-5102
Bryson StottPHI2-5001
Matt OlsonATL2-3200
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Zack WheelerPHI5.03236
Brad Keller (W)PHI1.10001
Bryce ElderATL7.06312
Tyler Kinley (L)ATL1.01111

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ATL +4
PHI +4
12345678910
largest lead: ATL 1 · PHI 4lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PHI 45%, ATL 55% · Updated Apr 25

Expected margin
ATL by 0.6
Expected score
ATL 4.8 – 4.2 PHI
Expected total
8.9
PhilliesThe matchupBraves
+122Our fair odds−122
4.2Expected runs4.8
+0.01Power rating+0.13
3.5Runs / game5.7
5.6Allowed / game3.4
7.5Hits / game9.5
1.12Home runs / game1.41
3.2Walks drawn / game3.3
8−18Season record19−8
0−10Last 109−1

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PHI chance · ATL chance
Our model fair45.0%55.0%
Kalshi47.7%56.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:15 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies+12245%+10947.7%———
ATLAtlanta Braves−12255%−13156.7%———
SpreadATL by 0.6
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies+0.6our margin————
ATLAtlanta Braves−0.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.9
Over8.9our total————
Under8.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Atlanta Braves by 0.6 expected
Philadelphia Phillies by 14 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 13 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 12 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 11 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 10 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 9 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 8 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 7 runs: 2%Philadelphia Phillies by 6 runs: 2%Philadelphia Phillies by 5 runs: 4%Philadelphia Phillies by 4 runs: 5%Philadelphia Phillies by 3 runs: 6%Philadelphia Phillies by 2 runs: 9%Philadelphia Phillies by 1 run: 14%Atlanta Braves by 1 run: 14%Atlanta Braves by 2 runs: 10%Atlanta Braves by 3 runs: 8%Atlanta Braves by 4 runs: 6%Atlanta Braves by 5 runs: 5%Atlanta Braves by 6 runs: 4%Atlanta Braves by 7 runs: 3%Atlanta Braves by 8 runs: 2%Atlanta Braves by 9 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 10 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 11 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 12 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 13 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 14 runs: <1%
← PHI wins byATL wins by →
Atlanta Braves wins by 2 or more41%
Atlanta Braves wins by 3 or more31%
Philadelphia Phillies wins by 2 or more31%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.9 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.569%
Total over 8.549%
Total over 10.532%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
PHIZack Wheeler SP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 3.94 ERA, 23 Kstarted
ATLBryce Elder SP · last 3 starts: 17.0 IP, 2.65 ERA, 16 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PHI·ATL
Apr 24 at ATL
last game
Apr 24 vs PHI
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
7
6th straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 26+ games
PHI·ATL
+0.01
rating (0 = average)
+0.13
3.5
runs / game
5.7
5.6
runs allowed / game
3.4
8−18
season record
19−8
5−10
home record
9−4
3−8
away record
10−4
L10
streak
W3
0−10
last 10
9−1
7.5
hits / game
9.5
1.12
home runs / game
1.41
3.2
walks drawn / game
3.3
8.1
batter strikeouts / game
7.3
9.3
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.3
0.65
errors / game
0.41

Rating Trend

PHI · ATL · 31 days
Philadelphia PhilliesAtlanta Braves
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ATL 6−4
Apr 24at ATLATL 5 − 3
Apr 19at PHIATL 4 − 2
Apr 18at PHIATL 3 − 1
Apr 17at PHIATL 9 − 0
Aug 31, 2025at PHIATL 3 − 1
Aug 30, 2025at PHIPHI 3 − 2
Aug 29, 2025at PHIPHI 2 − 1
Aug 28, 2025at PHIPHI 19 − 4
Jun 29, 2025at ATLPHI 2 − 1
Jun 28, 2025at ATLATL 6 − 1

PHI · Last 10

0−10 · streak L10
Apr 24at ATL3 − 5L
Apr 23at CHC7 − 8L
Apr 22at CHC2 − 7L
Apr 21at CHC4 − 7L
Apr 20at CHC1 − 5L
Apr 19vs ATL2 − 4L
Apr 18vs ATL1 − 3L
Apr 17vs ATL0 − 9L
Apr 15vs CHC2 − 11L
Apr 14vs CHC4 − 10L

ATL · Last 10

9−1 · streak W3
Apr 24vs PHI5 − 3W
Apr 23at WSH7 − 2W
Apr 22at WSH8 − 6W
Apr 21at WSH4 − 11L
Apr 20at WSH9 − 4W
Apr 19at PHI4 − 2W
Apr 18at PHI3 − 1W
Apr 17at PHI9 − 0W
Apr 15vs MIA6 − 3W
Apr 14vs MIA6 − 5W