bayesRatings

Phillies at Cubs

MLB · Monday, Apr 20 · 6:40 PM CT · Wrigley Field · Final PHI 1 – CHC 5
← MLB / Apr 20

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
PHI000100000160
CHC04100000581
Team box
PHI·CHC
6
hits
8
0
home runs
1
5
walks
5
5
strikeouts
10
153
pitches thrown
136
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Dansby SwansonCHC1-4113
Alex BregmanCHC2-4000
Justin CrawfordPHI1-2001
Michael ConfortoCHC0-0001
Ian HappCHC1-3100
Nico HoernerCHC1-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Aaron Nola (L)PHI4.16545
Colin Rea (W)CHC6.26125

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CHC +5
PHI +5
123456789
largest lead: CHC 5 · PHI 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PHI 45%, CHC 55% · Updated Apr 20

Expected margin
CHC by 0.7
Expected score
CHC 4.6 – 3.9 PHI
Expected total
8.6
PhilliesThe matchupCubs
+123Our fair odds−123
3.9Expected runs4.6
+0.05Power rating+0.17
3.6Runs / game5.3
5.4Allowed / game3.9
7.4Hits / game8.5
1.05Home runs / game1.14
3.2Walks drawn / game4.5
8−13Season record12−9
2−8Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PHI chance · CHC chance
Our model fair44.8%55.2%
Kalshi51.7%53.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies+12345%−10751.8%———
CHCChicago Cubs−12355%−11653.7%———
SpreadCHC by 0.7
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies+0.7our margin————
CHCChicago Cubs−0.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.6
Over8.6our total————
Under8.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Chicago Cubs by 0.7 expected
Philadelphia Phillies by 13 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 12 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 11 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 10 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 9 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 8 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 7 runs: 2%Philadelphia Phillies by 6 runs: 2%Philadelphia Phillies by 5 runs: 3%Philadelphia Phillies by 4 runs: 5%Philadelphia Phillies by 3 runs: 6%Philadelphia Phillies by 2 runs: 9%Philadelphia Phillies by 1 run: 15%Chicago Cubs by 1 run: 13%Chicago Cubs by 2 runs: 11%Chicago Cubs by 3 runs: 8%Chicago Cubs by 4 runs: 6%Chicago Cubs by 5 runs: 5%Chicago Cubs by 6 runs: 4%Chicago Cubs by 7 runs: 3%Chicago Cubs by 8 runs: 2%Chicago Cubs by 9 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 10 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 11 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 12 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 13 runs: <1%
← PHI wins byCHC wins by →
Chicago Cubs wins by 2 or more42%
Chicago Cubs wins by 3 or more31%
Philadelphia Phillies wins by 2 or more30%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.6 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.566%
Total over 8.546%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
PHIAaron Nola SP · last 3 starts: 17.1 IP, 3.63 ERA, 17 Kstarted
CHCColin Rea SP · last 3 starts: 17.2 IP, 1.02 ERA, 20 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PHI·CHC
Apr 19 vs ATL
last game
Apr 19 vs NYM
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
road after a home game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 21+ games
PHI·CHC
+0.05
rating (0 = average)
+0.17
3.6
runs / game
5.3
5.4
runs allowed / game
3.9
8−13
season record
12−9
5−10
home record
7−5
3−3
away record
5−4
L5
streak
W5
2−8
last 10
7−3
7.4
hits / game
8.5
1.05
home runs / game
1.14
3.2
walks drawn / game
4.5
8.5
batter strikeouts / game
8.4
10.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.4
0.71
errors / game
0.43

Rating Trend

PHI · CHC · 26 days
Philadelphia PhilliesChicago Cubs
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CHC 4−6
Apr 15at PHICHC 11 − 2
Apr 14at PHICHC 10 − 4
Apr 13at PHIPHI 13 − 7
Jun 11, 2025at PHIPHI 7 − 2
Jun 10, 2025at PHICHC 8 − 4
Jun 9, 2025at PHIPHI 4 − 3
Apr 27, 2025at CHCPHI 3 − 1
Apr 26, 2025at CHCPHI 10 − 4
Apr 25, 2025at CHCCHC 4 − 0
Sep 25, 2024at PHIPHI 9 − 6

PHI · Last 10

2−8 · streak L5
Apr 19vs ATL2 − 4L
Apr 18vs ATL1 − 3L
Apr 17vs ATL0 − 9L
Apr 15vs CHC2 − 11L
Apr 14vs CHC4 − 10L
Apr 13vs CHC13 − 7W
Apr 12vs ARI3 − 4L
Apr 11vs ARI4 − 3W
Apr 10vs ARI4 − 5L
Apr 8at SF0 − 5L

CHC · Last 10

7−3 · streak W5
Apr 19vs NYM2 − 1W
Apr 18vs NYM4 − 2W
Apr 17vs NYM12 − 4W
Apr 15at PHI11 − 2W
Apr 14at PHI10 − 4W
Apr 13at PHI7 − 13L
Apr 12vs PIT7 − 6W
Apr 11vs PIT3 − 4L
Apr 10vs PIT0 − 2L
Apr 8at TB6 − 2W