bayesRatings

Mets at Cubs

MLB · Friday, Apr 17 · 1:20 PM CT · Wrigley Field · Final NYM 4 – CHC 12
← MLB / Apr 17

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
NYM0300000104142
CHC4201003212140
Team box
NYM·CHC
14
hits
14
0
home runs
3
2
walks
4
6
strikeouts
6
152
pitches thrown
138
2
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Nico HoernerCHC3-5112
Moises BallesterosCHC2-2113
Ian HappCHC1-4112
Tyrone TaylorNYM2-3002
Seiya SuzukiCHC2-5201
Marcus SemienNYM2-4101
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Kodai Senga (L)NYM3.16633
Edward Cabrera (W)CHC6.08324

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CHC +8
NYM +8
123456789
largest lead: CHC 8 · NYM 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NYM 44%, CHC 56% · Updated Apr 17

Expected margin
CHC by 0.7
Expected score
CHC 4.7 – 4.0 NYM
Expected total
8.7
MetsThe matchupCubs
+127Our fair odds−127
4.0Expected runs4.7
+0.00Power rating+0.14
3.4Runs / game5.2
4.2Allowed / game4.2
7.5Hits / game8.5
0.74Home runs / game1.06
3.1Walks drawn / game4.7
7−12Season record9−9
2−8Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NYM chance · CHC chance
Our model fair44.1%55.9%
Kalshi43.7%60.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 1:20 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NYMNew York Mets+12744%+12943.7%———
CHCChicago Cubs−12756%−15460.7%———
SpreadCHC by 0.7
NYMNew York Mets+0.7our margin————
CHCChicago Cubs−0.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.7
Over8.7our total————
Under8.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Chicago Cubs by 0.7 expected
New York Mets by 14 runs: <1%New York Mets by 13 runs: <1%New York Mets by 12 runs: <1%New York Mets by 11 runs: <1%New York Mets by 10 runs: <1%New York Mets by 9 runs: 1%New York Mets by 8 runs: 1%New York Mets by 7 runs: 2%New York Mets by 6 runs: 2%New York Mets by 5 runs: 3%New York Mets by 4 runs: 5%New York Mets by 3 runs: 6%New York Mets by 2 runs: 9%New York Mets by 1 run: 14%Chicago Cubs by 1 run: 14%Chicago Cubs by 2 runs: 11%Chicago Cubs by 3 runs: 8%Chicago Cubs by 4 runs: 6%Chicago Cubs by 5 runs: 5%Chicago Cubs by 6 runs: 4%Chicago Cubs by 7 runs: 3%Chicago Cubs by 8 runs: 2%Chicago Cubs by 9 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 10 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 11 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 12 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 13 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 14 runs: <1%
← NYM wins byCHC wins by →
Chicago Cubs wins by 2 or more42%
Chicago Cubs wins by 3 or more31%
New York Mets wins by 2 or more30%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.7 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.567%
Total over 8.547%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
NYMKodai Senga RP · last 3 starts: 14.0 IP, 7.07 ERA, 19 Kstarted
CHCEdward Cabrera SP · last 3 starts: 16.2 IP, 1.62 ERA, 13 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NYM·CHC
Apr 15 at LAD
last game
Apr 15 at PHI
1 day
days of rest
1 day
6
games in last 7 days
6
4th straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 18+ games
NYM·CHC
+0.00
rating (0 = average)
+0.14
3.4
runs / game
5.2
4.2
runs allowed / game
4.2
7−12
season record
9−9
3−6
home record
4−5
4−6
away record
5−4
L8
streak
W2
2−8
last 10
5−5
7.5
hits / game
8.5
0.74
home runs / game
1.06
3.1
walks drawn / game
4.7
8.2
batter strikeouts / game
8.9
9.1
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.6
0.47
errors / game
0.44

Rating Trend

NYM · CHC · 23 days
New York MetsChicago Cubs
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CHC 3−7
Sep 25, 2025at CHCNYM 8 − 5
Sep 24, 2025at CHCCHC 10 − 3
Sep 23, 2025at CHCNYM 9 − 7
May 11, 2025at NYMNYM 6 − 2
May 10, 2025at NYMCHC 6 − 5
May 9, 2025at NYMNYM 7 − 2
Jun 23, 2024at CHCNYM 5 − 2
Jun 22, 2024at CHCCHC 8 − 1
Jun 21, 2024at CHCNYM 11 − 1
May 2, 2024at NYMNYM 7 − 6

NYM · Last 10

2−8 · streak L8
Apr 15at LAD2 − 8L
Apr 14at LAD1 − 2L
Apr 13at LAD0 − 4L
Apr 12vs ATH0 − 1L
Apr 11vs ATH6 − 11L
Apr 10vs ATH0 − 4L
Apr 9vs ARI1 − 7L
Apr 8vs ARI2 − 7L
Apr 7vs ARI4 − 3W
Apr 5at SF5 − 2W

CHC · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Apr 15at PHI11 − 2W
Apr 14at PHI10 − 4W
Apr 13at PHI7 − 13L
Apr 12vs PIT7 − 6W
Apr 11vs PIT3 − 4L
Apr 10vs PIT0 − 2L
Apr 8at TB6 − 2W
Apr 7at TB9 − 2W
Apr 6at TB4 − 6L
Apr 5at CLE5 − 6L