bayesRatings

Mets at Dodgers

MLB · Tuesday, Apr 14 · 9:10 PM CT · Dodger Stadium · Final NYM 1 – LAD 2
← MLB / Apr 14

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
NYM100000000141
LAD10000001230
Team box
NYM·LAD
4
hits
3
1
home runs
0
1
walks
4
11
strikeouts
9
110
pitches thrown
121
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Francisco LindorNYM2-4111
Kyle TuckerLAD1-3101
Freddie FreemanLAD0-4001
Max MuncyLAD1-3000
Will SmithLAD1-4000
Bo BichetteNYM1-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Nolan McLeanNYM7.02128
Brooks Raley (L)NYM1.01121
Yoshinobu YamamotoLAD7.24117
Blake Treinen (W)LAD0.10001
Alex Vesia (S)LAD1.00003

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LAD +3
NYM +3
123456789
largest lead: LAD 1 · NYM 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NYM 40%, LAD 60% · Updated Apr 14

Expected margin
LAD by 0.9
Expected score
LAD 5.0 – 4.1 NYM
Expected total
9.1
MetsThe matchupDodgers
+148Our fair odds−148
4.1Expected runs5.0
+0.02Power rating+0.32
3.6Runs / game5.9
4.1Allowed / game3.5
7.8Hits / game9.8
0.76Home runs / game1.81
3.2Walks drawn / game4.2
7−10Season record12−4
4−6Last 108−2

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NYM chance · LAD chance
Our model fair40.2%59.8%
Kalshi38.6%66.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 9:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NYMNew York Mets+14840%+15938.6%———
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−14860%−19966.6%———
SpreadLAD by 0.9
NYMNew York Mets+0.9our margin————
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−0.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.1
Over9.1our total————
Under9.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Los Angeles Dodgers by 0.9 expected
New York Mets by 14 runs: <1%New York Mets by 13 runs: <1%New York Mets by 12 runs: <1%New York Mets by 11 runs: <1%New York Mets by 10 runs: <1%New York Mets by 9 runs: 1%New York Mets by 8 runs: 1%New York Mets by 7 runs: 2%New York Mets by 6 runs: 2%New York Mets by 5 runs: 3%New York Mets by 4 runs: 5%New York Mets by 3 runs: 6%New York Mets by 2 runs: 9%New York Mets by 1 run: 11%Los Angeles Dodgers by 1 run: 16%Los Angeles Dodgers by 2 runs: 10%Los Angeles Dodgers by 3 runs: 8%Los Angeles Dodgers by 4 runs: 6%Los Angeles Dodgers by 5 runs: 5%Los Angeles Dodgers by 6 runs: 4%Los Angeles Dodgers by 7 runs: 3%Los Angeles Dodgers by 8 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 9 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 10 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 11 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 12 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 13 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 14 runs: <1%
← NYM wins byLAD wins by →
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 2 or more43%
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 3 or more33%
New York Mets wins by 2 or more29%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.1 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.559%
Total over 9.541%
Total over 11.526%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
NYMNolan McLean SP · last 3 starts: 16.2 IP, 2.70 ERA, 20 Kstarted
LADYoshinobu Yamamoto SP · last 3 starts: 18.0 IP, 2.50 ERA, 14 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NYM·LAD
Apr 13 at LAD
last game
Apr 13 vs NYM
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
6
2nd straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 16+ games
NYM·LAD
+0.02
rating (0 = average)
+0.32
3.6
runs / game
5.9
4.1
runs allowed / game
3.5
7−10
season record
12−4
3−6
home record
7−3
4−4
away record
5−1
L6
streak
W1
4−6
last 10
8−2
7.8
hits / game
9.8
0.76
home runs / game
1.81
3.2
walks drawn / game
4.2
7.7
batter strikeouts / game
8.8
9.2
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.2
0.47
errors / game
0.31

Rating Trend

NYM · LAD · 20 days
New York MetsLos Angeles Dodgers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · LAD 5−5
Apr 13at LADLAD 4 − 0
Jun 5, 2025at LADLAD 6 − 5
Jun 4, 2025at LADNYM 6 − 1
Jun 3, 2025at LADLAD 6 − 5
Jun 2, 2025at LADNYM 4 − 3
May 25, 2025at NYMNYM 3 − 1
May 24, 2025at NYMNYM 5 − 2
May 23, 2025at NYMLAD 7 − 5
Oct 20, 2024at LADLAD 10 − 5post
Oct 18, 2024at NYMNYM 12 − 6post

NYM · Last 10

4−6 · streak L6
Apr 13at LAD0 − 4L
Apr 12vs ATH0 − 1L
Apr 11vs ATH6 − 11L
Apr 10vs ATH0 − 4L
Apr 9vs ARI1 − 7L
Apr 8vs ARI2 − 7L
Apr 7vs ARI4 − 3W
Apr 5at SF5 − 2W
Apr 4at SF9 − 0W
Apr 3at SF10 − 3W

LAD · Last 10

8−2 · streak W1
Apr 13vs NYM4 − 0W
Apr 12vs TEX2 − 5L
Apr 11vs TEX6 − 3W
Apr 10vs TEX8 − 7W
Apr 8at TOR3 − 4L
Apr 7at TOR4 − 1W
Apr 6at TOR14 − 2W
Apr 5at WSH8 − 6W
Apr 4at WSH10 − 5W
Apr 3at WSH13 − 6W