bayesRatings

Mets at Dodgers

MLB · Monday, Apr 13 · 9:10 PM CT · Dodger Stadium · Final NYM 0 – LAD 4
← MLB / Apr 13

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
NYM000000000030
LAD10300000480
Team box
NYM·LAD
3
hits
8
0
home runs
1
0
walks
5
2
strikeouts
12
149
pitches thrown
98
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Andy PagesLAD1-4113
Miguel RojasLAD3-4000
Freddie FreemanLAD2-4100
Will SmithLAD1-3001
Teoscar HernandezLAD1-2000
Marcus SemienNYM1-3000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
David Peterson (L)NYM5.05447
Justin Wrobleski (W)LAD8.02002

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LAD +4
NYM +4
123456789
largest lead: LAD 4 · NYM 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NYM 41%, LAD 59% · Updated Apr 13

Expected margin
LAD by 0.7
Expected score
LAD 4.9 – 4.2 NYM
Expected total
9.2
MetsThe matchupDodgers
+144Our fair odds−144
4.2Expected runs4.9
+0.03Power rating+0.31
3.9Runs / game6.1
4.1Allowed / game3.7
8.1Hits / game9.9
0.81Home runs / game1.87
3.4Walks drawn / game4.1
7−9Season record11−4
4−6Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NYM chance · LAD chance
Our model fair40.9%59.1%
Kalshi43.7%60.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 9:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NYMNew York Mets+14441%+12943.7%———
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−14459%−15460.7%———
SpreadLAD by 0.7
NYMNew York Mets+0.7our margin————
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−0.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.2
Over9.2our total————
Under9.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Los Angeles Dodgers by 0.7 expected
New York Mets by 14 runs: <1%New York Mets by 13 runs: <1%New York Mets by 12 runs: <1%New York Mets by 11 runs: <1%New York Mets by 10 runs: 1%New York Mets by 9 runs: 1%New York Mets by 8 runs: 1%New York Mets by 7 runs: 2%New York Mets by 6 runs: 3%New York Mets by 5 runs: 4%New York Mets by 4 runs: 5%New York Mets by 3 runs: 6%New York Mets by 2 runs: 9%New York Mets by 1 run: 10%Los Angeles Dodgers by 1 run: 17%Los Angeles Dodgers by 2 runs: 10%Los Angeles Dodgers by 3 runs: 8%Los Angeles Dodgers by 4 runs: 6%Los Angeles Dodgers by 5 runs: 5%Los Angeles Dodgers by 6 runs: 4%Los Angeles Dodgers by 7 runs: 3%Los Angeles Dodgers by 8 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 9 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 10 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 11 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 12 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 13 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 14 runs: <1%
← NYM wins byLAD wins by →
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 2 or more42%
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 3 or more31%
New York Mets wins by 2 or more31%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.2 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.559%
Total over 9.541%
Total over 11.527%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
NYMDavid Peterson SP · last 3 starts: 14.2 IP, 6.14 ERA, 14 Kstarted
LADJustin Wrobleski SP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 7.31 ERA, 11 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NYM·LAD
Apr 12 vs ATH
last game
Apr 12 vs TEX
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
road after a home game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 15+ games
NYM·LAD
+0.03
rating (0 = average)
+0.31
3.9
runs / game
6.1
4.1
runs allowed / game
3.7
7−9
season record
11−4
3−6
home record
6−3
4−3
away record
5−1
L5
streak
L1
4−6
last 10
7−3
8.1
hits / game
9.9
0.81
home runs / game
1.87
3.4
walks drawn / game
4.1
8.1
batter strikeouts / game
8.6
9.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.6
0.50
errors / game
0.33

Rating Trend

NYM · LAD · 19 days
New York MetsLos Angeles Dodgers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · LAD 5−5
Jun 5, 2025at LADLAD 6 − 5
Jun 4, 2025at LADNYM 6 − 1
Jun 3, 2025at LADLAD 6 − 5
Jun 2, 2025at LADNYM 4 − 3
May 25, 2025at NYMNYM 3 − 1
May 24, 2025at NYMNYM 5 − 2
May 23, 2025at NYMLAD 7 − 5
Oct 20, 2024at LADLAD 10 − 5post
Oct 18, 2024at NYMNYM 12 − 6post
Oct 17, 2024at NYMLAD 10 − 2post

NYM · Last 10

4−6 · streak L5
Apr 12vs ATH0 − 1L
Apr 11vs ATH6 − 11L
Apr 10vs ATH0 − 4L
Apr 9vs ARI1 − 7L
Apr 8vs ARI2 − 7L
Apr 7vs ARI4 − 3W
Apr 5at SF5 − 2W
Apr 4at SF9 − 0W
Apr 3at SF10 − 3W
Apr 2at SF2 − 7L

LAD · Last 10

7−3 · streak L1
Apr 12vs TEX2 − 5L
Apr 11vs TEX6 − 3W
Apr 10vs TEX8 − 7W
Apr 8at TOR3 − 4L
Apr 7at TOR4 − 1W
Apr 6at TOR14 − 2W
Apr 5at WSH8 − 6W
Apr 4at WSH10 − 5W
Apr 3at WSH13 − 6W
Apr 1vs CLE1 − 4L