bayesRatings

Mets at Dodgers

MLB · Wednesday, Apr 15 · 9:00 PM CT · Dodger Stadium · Final NYM 2 – LAD 8
← MLB / Apr 15

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
NYM000010001250
LAD020001058120
Team box
NYM·LAD
5
hits
12
0
home runs
4
2
walks
2
14
strikeouts
8
152
pitches thrown
140
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Dalton RushingLAD2-4214
Teoscar HernandezLAD2-4211
Hyeseong KimLAD1-4112
Kyle TuckerLAD1-5111
MJ MelendezNYM2-4001
Freddie FreemanLAD2-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Clay Holmes (L)NYM5.04214
Shohei Ohtani (W)LAD6.021210

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LAD +7
NYM +7
123456789
largest lead: LAD 7 · NYM 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NYM 40%, LAD 60% · Updated Apr 15

Expected margin
LAD by 0.9
Expected score
LAD 4.9 – 4.0 NYM
Expected total
8.9
MetsThe matchupDodgers
+152Our fair odds−152
4.0Expected runs4.9
+0.01Power rating+0.33
3.5Runs / game5.7
3.9Allowed / game3.4
7.6Hits / game9.4
0.78Home runs / game1.71
3.1Walks drawn / game4.2
7−11Season record13−4
3−7Last 108−2

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NYM chance · LAD chance
Our model fair39.7%60.3%
Kalshi38.6%65.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 9:00 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NYMNew York Mets+15240%+15938.6%———
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−15260%−19165.6%———
SpreadLAD by 0.9
NYMNew York Mets+0.9our margin————
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−0.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.9
Over8.9our total————
Under8.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Los Angeles Dodgers by 0.9 expected
New York Mets by 14 runs: <1%New York Mets by 13 runs: <1%New York Mets by 12 runs: <1%New York Mets by 11 runs: <1%New York Mets by 10 runs: <1%New York Mets by 9 runs: 1%New York Mets by 8 runs: 1%New York Mets by 7 runs: 2%New York Mets by 6 runs: 2%New York Mets by 5 runs: 3%New York Mets by 4 runs: 5%New York Mets by 3 runs: 6%New York Mets by 2 runs: 9%New York Mets by 1 run: 11%Los Angeles Dodgers by 1 run: 17%Los Angeles Dodgers by 2 runs: 10%Los Angeles Dodgers by 3 runs: 8%Los Angeles Dodgers by 4 runs: 6%Los Angeles Dodgers by 5 runs: 5%Los Angeles Dodgers by 6 runs: 4%Los Angeles Dodgers by 7 runs: 3%Los Angeles Dodgers by 8 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 9 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 10 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 11 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 12 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 13 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 14 runs: <1%
← NYM wins byLAD wins by →
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 2 or more43%
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 3 or more33%
New York Mets wins by 2 or more29%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.9 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.569%
Total over 8.549%
Total over 10.532%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
NYMClay Holmes SP · last 3 starts: 18.0 IP, 1.50 ERA, 12 Kstarted
LADShohei Ohtani DH · last 3 starts: 14.1 IP, 1.88 ERA, 11 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NYM·LAD
Apr 14 at LAD
last game
Apr 14 vs NYM
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
6
3rd straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 17+ games
NYM·LAD
+0.01
rating (0 = average)
+0.33
3.5
runs / game
5.7
3.9
runs allowed / game
3.4
7−11
season record
13−4
3−6
home record
8−3
4−5
away record
5−1
L7
streak
W2
3−7
last 10
8−2
7.6
hits / game
9.4
0.78
home runs / game
1.71
3.1
walks drawn / game
4.2
7.9
batter strikeouts / game
8.8
9.2
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.4
0.50
errors / game
0.29

Rating Trend

NYM · LAD · 21 days
New York MetsLos Angeles Dodgers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · LAD 6−4
Apr 14at LADLAD 2 − 1
Apr 13at LADLAD 4 − 0
Jun 5, 2025at LADLAD 6 − 5
Jun 4, 2025at LADNYM 6 − 1
Jun 3, 2025at LADLAD 6 − 5
Jun 2, 2025at LADNYM 4 − 3
May 25, 2025at NYMNYM 3 − 1
May 24, 2025at NYMNYM 5 − 2
May 23, 2025at NYMLAD 7 − 5
Oct 20, 2024at LADLAD 10 − 5post

NYM · Last 10

3−7 · streak L7
Apr 14at LAD1 − 2L
Apr 13at LAD0 − 4L
Apr 12vs ATH0 − 1L
Apr 11vs ATH6 − 11L
Apr 10vs ATH0 − 4L
Apr 9vs ARI1 − 7L
Apr 8vs ARI2 − 7L
Apr 7vs ARI4 − 3W
Apr 5at SF5 − 2W
Apr 4at SF9 − 0W

LAD · Last 10

8−2 · streak W2
Apr 14vs NYM2 − 1W
Apr 13vs NYM4 − 0W
Apr 12vs TEX2 − 5L
Apr 11vs TEX6 − 3W
Apr 10vs TEX8 − 7W
Apr 8at TOR3 − 4L
Apr 7at TOR4 − 1W
Apr 6at TOR14 − 2W
Apr 5at WSH8 − 6W
Apr 4at WSH10 − 5W