bayesRatings

Mets at Cubs

MLB · Sunday, Apr 19 · 1:20 PM CT · Wrigley Field · Final NYM 1 – CHC 2
← MLB / Apr 19

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team12345678910THE
NYM0000100000160
CHC0000000011270
Team box
NYM·CHC
6
hits
7
1
home runs
0
0
walks
3
9
strikeouts
8
141
pitches thrown
144
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
MJ MelendezNYM1-4111
Michael ConfortoCHC1-1001
Ian HappCHC2-3000
Nico HoernerCHC1-3001
Marcus SemienNYM2-3000
Alex BregmanCHC1-3000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Tobias MyersNYM2.01012
Craig Kimbrel (L)NYM0.20001
Javier AssadCHC5.23103
Caleb Thielbar (W)CHC1.01001

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CHC +3
NYM +3
12345678910
largest lead: CHC 1 · NYM 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NYM 43%, CHC 57% · Updated Apr 19

Expected margin
CHC by 0.9
Expected score
CHC 4.8 – 3.9 NYM
Expected total
8.7
MetsThe matchupCubs
+133Our fair odds−133
3.9Expected runs4.8
−0.02Power rating+0.17
3.4Runs / game5.5
4.5Allowed / game4.0
7.8Hits / game8.6
0.71Home runs / game1.20
3.0Walks drawn / game4.6
7−14Season record11−9
0−10Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NYM chance · CHC chance
Our model fair43.0%57.0%
Kalshi45.7%58.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 1:20 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NYMNew York Mets+13343%+11945.7%———
CHCChicago Cubs−13357%−14258.7%———
SpreadCHC by 0.9
NYMNew York Mets+0.9our margin————
CHCChicago Cubs−0.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.7
Over8.7our total————
Under8.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Chicago Cubs by 0.9 expected
New York Mets by 14 runs: <1%New York Mets by 13 runs: <1%New York Mets by 12 runs: <1%New York Mets by 11 runs: <1%New York Mets by 10 runs: <1%New York Mets by 9 runs: 1%New York Mets by 8 runs: 1%New York Mets by 7 runs: 1%New York Mets by 6 runs: 2%New York Mets by 5 runs: 3%New York Mets by 4 runs: 4%New York Mets by 3 runs: 6%New York Mets by 2 runs: 9%New York Mets by 1 run: 15%Chicago Cubs by 1 run: 13%Chicago Cubs by 2 runs: 11%Chicago Cubs by 3 runs: 8%Chicago Cubs by 4 runs: 7%Chicago Cubs by 5 runs: 5%Chicago Cubs by 6 runs: 4%Chicago Cubs by 7 runs: 3%Chicago Cubs by 8 runs: 2%Chicago Cubs by 9 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 10 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 11 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 12 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 13 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 14 runs: <1%
← NYM wins byCHC wins by →
Chicago Cubs wins by 2 or more44%
Chicago Cubs wins by 3 or more33%
New York Mets wins by 2 or more28%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.7 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.567%
Total over 8.547%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
NYMTobias Myers RP · last 3 starts: 11.0 IP, 7.36 ERA, 11 Kstarted
CHCJavier Assad RP · last 3 starts: 15.1 IP, 5.28 ERA, 12 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NYM·CHC
Apr 18 at CHC
last game
Apr 18 vs NYM
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
6th straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 20+ games
NYM·CHC
−0.02
rating (0 = average)
+0.17
3.4
runs / game
5.5
4.5
runs allowed / game
4.0
7−14
season record
11−9
3−6
home record
6−5
4−8
away record
5−4
L10
streak
W4
0−10
last 10
7−3
7.8
hits / game
8.6
0.71
home runs / game
1.20
3.0
walks drawn / game
4.6
8.0
batter strikeouts / game
8.4
8.7
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.4
0.52
errors / game
0.45

Rating Trend

NYM · CHC · 25 days
New York MetsChicago Cubs
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CHC 5−5
Apr 18at CHCCHC 4 − 2
Apr 17at CHCCHC 12 − 4
Sep 25, 2025at CHCNYM 8 − 5
Sep 24, 2025at CHCCHC 10 − 3
Sep 23, 2025at CHCNYM 9 − 7
May 11, 2025at NYMNYM 6 − 2
May 10, 2025at NYMCHC 6 − 5
May 9, 2025at NYMNYM 7 − 2
Jun 23, 2024at CHCNYM 5 − 2
Jun 22, 2024at CHCCHC 8 − 1

NYM · Last 10

0−10 · streak L10
Apr 18at CHC2 − 4L
Apr 17at CHC4 − 12L
Apr 15at LAD2 − 8L
Apr 14at LAD1 − 2L
Apr 13at LAD0 − 4L
Apr 12vs ATH0 − 1L
Apr 11vs ATH6 − 11L
Apr 10vs ATH0 − 4L
Apr 9vs ARI1 − 7L
Apr 8vs ARI2 − 7L

CHC · Last 10

7−3 · streak W4
Apr 18vs NYM4 − 2W
Apr 17vs NYM12 − 4W
Apr 15at PHI11 − 2W
Apr 14at PHI10 − 4W
Apr 13at PHI7 − 13L
Apr 12vs PIT7 − 6W
Apr 11vs PIT3 − 4L
Apr 10vs PIT0 − 2L
Apr 8at TB6 − 2W
Apr 7at TB9 − 2W