bayesRatings

Mets at Cubs

MLB · Saturday, Apr 18 · 1:20 PM CT · Wrigley Field · Final NYM 2 – CHC 4
← MLB / Apr 18

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
NYM010000010270
CHC01000300451
Team box
NYM·CHC
7
hits
5
1
home runs
2
4
walks
3
7
strikeouts
3
124
pitches thrown
152
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Carson KellyCHC1-1113
Ian HappCHC1-2211
Mark VientosNYM1-4111
Francisco LindorNYM2-4000
Luis Robert Jr.NYM2-4000
Miguel AmayaCHC1-3000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Freddy Peralta (L)NYM5.23323
Jameson Taillon (W)CHC6.05134
Caleb Thielbar (S)CHC1.00002

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CHC +3
NYM +3
123456789
largest lead: CHC 3 · NYM 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NYM 44%, CHC 56% · Updated Apr 18

Expected margin
CHC by 0.8
Expected score
CHC 4.8 – 4.0 NYM
Expected total
8.8
MetsThe matchupCubs
+130Our fair odds−130
4.0Expected runs4.8
−0.01Power rating+0.16
3.5Runs / game5.6
4.5Allowed / game4.2
7.8Hits / game8.8
0.70Home runs / game1.16
3.0Walks drawn / game4.7
7−13Season record10−9
1−9Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NYM chance · CHC chance
Our model fair43.5%56.5%
Kalshi50.7%53.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 1:20 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NYMNew York Mets+13044%−10350.7%———
CHCChicago Cubs−13056%−11653.7%———
SpreadCHC by 0.8
NYMNew York Mets+0.8our margin————
CHCChicago Cubs−0.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.8
Over8.8our total————
Under8.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Chicago Cubs by 0.8 expected
New York Mets by 14 runs: <1%New York Mets by 13 runs: <1%New York Mets by 12 runs: <1%New York Mets by 11 runs: <1%New York Mets by 10 runs: <1%New York Mets by 9 runs: 1%New York Mets by 8 runs: 1%New York Mets by 7 runs: 2%New York Mets by 6 runs: 2%New York Mets by 5 runs: 3%New York Mets by 4 runs: 5%New York Mets by 3 runs: 6%New York Mets by 2 runs: 9%New York Mets by 1 run: 14%Chicago Cubs by 1 run: 14%Chicago Cubs by 2 runs: 11%Chicago Cubs by 3 runs: 8%Chicago Cubs by 4 runs: 6%Chicago Cubs by 5 runs: 5%Chicago Cubs by 6 runs: 4%Chicago Cubs by 7 runs: 3%Chicago Cubs by 8 runs: 2%Chicago Cubs by 9 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 10 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 11 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 12 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 13 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 14 runs: <1%
← NYM wins byCHC wins by →
Chicago Cubs wins by 2 or more43%
Chicago Cubs wins by 3 or more32%
New York Mets wins by 2 or more29%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.8 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.568%
Total over 8.548%
Total over 10.531%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
NYMFreddy Peralta SP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 2.81 ERA, 18 Kstarted
CHCJameson Taillon SP · last 3 starts: 16.2 IP, 4.86 ERA, 17 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NYM·CHC
Apr 17 at CHC
last game
Apr 17 vs NYM
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
5th straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 19+ games
NYM·CHC
−0.01
rating (0 = average)
+0.16
3.5
runs / game
5.6
4.5
runs allowed / game
4.2
7−13
season record
10−9
3−6
home record
5−5
4−7
away record
5−4
L9
streak
W3
1−9
last 10
6−4
7.8
hits / game
8.8
0.70
home runs / game
1.16
3.0
walks drawn / game
4.7
8.1
batter strikeouts / game
8.7
8.9
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.5
0.55
errors / game
0.42

Rating Trend

NYM · CHC · 24 days
New York MetsChicago Cubs
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CHC 4−6
Apr 17at CHCCHC 12 − 4
Sep 25, 2025at CHCNYM 8 − 5
Sep 24, 2025at CHCCHC 10 − 3
Sep 23, 2025at CHCNYM 9 − 7
May 11, 2025at NYMNYM 6 − 2
May 10, 2025at NYMCHC 6 − 5
May 9, 2025at NYMNYM 7 − 2
Jun 23, 2024at CHCNYM 5 − 2
Jun 22, 2024at CHCCHC 8 − 1
Jun 21, 2024at CHCNYM 11 − 1

NYM · Last 10

1−9 · streak L9
Apr 17at CHC4 − 12L
Apr 15at LAD2 − 8L
Apr 14at LAD1 − 2L
Apr 13at LAD0 − 4L
Apr 12vs ATH0 − 1L
Apr 11vs ATH6 − 11L
Apr 10vs ATH0 − 4L
Apr 9vs ARI1 − 7L
Apr 8vs ARI2 − 7L
Apr 7vs ARI4 − 3W

CHC · Last 10

6−4 · streak W3
Apr 17vs NYM12 − 4W
Apr 15at PHI11 − 2W
Apr 14at PHI10 − 4W
Apr 13at PHI7 − 13L
Apr 12vs PIT7 − 6W
Apr 11vs PIT3 − 4L
Apr 10vs PIT0 − 2L
Apr 8at TB6 − 2W
Apr 7at TB9 − 2W
Apr 6at TB4 − 6L