bayesRatings

Phillies at Cubs

MLB · Tuesday, Apr 21 · 6:40 PM CT · Wrigley Field · Final PHI 4 – CHC 7
← MLB / Apr 21

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
PHI000001021460
CHC000012317122
Team box
PHI·CHC
6
hits
12
2
home runs
2
2
walks
10
3
strikeouts
6
194
pitches thrown
117
0
errors
2
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Seiya SuzukiCHC2-4112
Nico HoernerCHC2-5211
Bryce HarperPHI1-4112
Kyle SchwarberPHI1-3211
Michael BuschCHC1-4102
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC2-5000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Jesus LuzardoPHI4.25143
Tanner Banks (L)PHI1.03221
Shota Imanaga (W)CHC7.03111
Caleb Thielbar (S)CHC0.20000

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CHC +5
PHI +5
123456789
largest lead: CHC 5 · PHI 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PHI 44%, CHC 56% · Updated Apr 21

Expected margin
CHC by 0.8
Expected score
CHC 4.7 – 3.9 PHI
Expected total
8.5
PhilliesThe matchupCubs
+125Our fair odds−125
3.9Expected runs4.7
+0.05Power rating+0.19
3.5Runs / game5.3
5.4Allowed / game3.8
7.4Hits / game8.5
1.00Home runs / game1.14
3.3Walks drawn / game4.5
8−14Season record13−9
2−8Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PHI chance · CHC chance
Our model fair44.4%55.6%
Kalshi47.7%56.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies+12544%+10947.7%———
CHCChicago Cubs−12556%−13156.7%———
SpreadCHC by 0.8
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies+0.8our margin————
CHCChicago Cubs−0.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.5
Over8.5our total————
Under8.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Chicago Cubs by 0.8 expected
Philadelphia Phillies by 14 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 13 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 12 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 11 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 10 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 9 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 8 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 7 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 6 runs: 2%Philadelphia Phillies by 5 runs: 3%Philadelphia Phillies by 4 runs: 4%Philadelphia Phillies by 3 runs: 6%Philadelphia Phillies by 2 runs: 9%Philadelphia Phillies by 1 run: 16%Chicago Cubs by 1 run: 13%Chicago Cubs by 2 runs: 11%Chicago Cubs by 3 runs: 8%Chicago Cubs by 4 runs: 6%Chicago Cubs by 5 runs: 5%Chicago Cubs by 6 runs: 4%Chicago Cubs by 7 runs: 3%Chicago Cubs by 8 runs: 2%Chicago Cubs by 9 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 10 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 11 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 12 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 13 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 14 runs: <1%
← PHI wins byCHC wins by →
Chicago Cubs wins by 2 or more43%
Chicago Cubs wins by 3 or more32%
Philadelphia Phillies wins by 2 or more29%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.5 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.565%
Total over 8.546%
Total over 10.529%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
PHIJesus Luzardo SP · last 3 starts: 16.2 IP, 7.56 ERA, 23 Kstarted
CHCShota Imanaga SP · last 3 starts: 17.0 IP, 1.06 ERA, 24 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PHI·CHC
Apr 20 at CHC
last game
Apr 20 vs PHI
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
2nd straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 22+ games
PHI·CHC
+0.05
rating (0 = average)
+0.19
3.5
runs / game
5.3
5.4
runs allowed / game
3.8
8−14
season record
13−9
5−10
home record
8−5
3−4
away record
5−4
L6
streak
W6
2−8
last 10
7−3
7.4
hits / game
8.5
1.00
home runs / game
1.14
3.3
walks drawn / game
4.5
8.4
batter strikeouts / game
8.5
10.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.3
0.68
errors / game
0.45

Rating Trend

PHI · CHC · 27 days
Philadelphia PhilliesChicago Cubs
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CHC 5−5
Apr 20at CHCCHC 5 − 1
Apr 15at PHICHC 11 − 2
Apr 14at PHICHC 10 − 4
Apr 13at PHIPHI 13 − 7
Jun 11, 2025at PHIPHI 7 − 2
Jun 10, 2025at PHICHC 8 − 4
Jun 9, 2025at PHIPHI 4 − 3
Apr 27, 2025at CHCPHI 3 − 1
Apr 26, 2025at CHCPHI 10 − 4
Apr 25, 2025at CHCCHC 4 − 0

PHI · Last 10

2−8 · streak L6
Apr 20at CHC1 − 5L
Apr 19vs ATL2 − 4L
Apr 18vs ATL1 − 3L
Apr 17vs ATL0 − 9L
Apr 15vs CHC2 − 11L
Apr 14vs CHC4 − 10L
Apr 13vs CHC13 − 7W
Apr 12vs ARI3 − 4L
Apr 11vs ARI4 − 3W
Apr 10vs ARI4 − 5L

CHC · Last 10

7−3 · streak W6
Apr 20vs PHI5 − 1W
Apr 19vs NYM2 − 1W
Apr 18vs NYM4 − 2W
Apr 17vs NYM12 − 4W
Apr 15at PHI11 − 2W
Apr 14at PHI10 − 4W
Apr 13at PHI7 − 13L
Apr 12vs PIT7 − 6W
Apr 11vs PIT3 − 4L
Apr 10vs PIT0 − 2L