bayesRatings

Phillies at Braves

MLB · Friday, Apr 24 · 6:15 PM CT · Truist Park · Final PHI 3 – ATL 5
← MLB / Apr 24

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
PHI0020100003101
ATL002003005100
Team box
PHI·ATL
10
hits
10
2
home runs
1
4
walks
3
5
strikeouts
2
130
pitches thrown
150
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Ronald Acuna Jr.ATL1-3112
Trea TurnerPHI1-3112
Bryce HarperPHI1-5111
Michael Harris IIATL1-1002
Adolis GarciaPHI3-5000
Matt OlsonATL2-5000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Andrew Painter (L)PHI5.29521
Grant Holmes (W)ATL6.07334
Robert Suarez (S)ATL1.01011

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ATL +3
PHI +3
123456789
largest lead: ATL 2 · PHI 2lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PHI 45%, ATL 55% · Updated Apr 24

Expected margin
ATL by 0.6
Expected score
ATL 4.8 – 4.2 PHI
Expected total
9.0
PhilliesThe matchupBraves
+121Our fair odds−121
4.2Expected runs4.8
+0.02Power rating+0.13
3.6Runs / game5.8
5.6Allowed / game3.4
7.4Hits / game9.5
1.08Home runs / game1.42
3.2Walks drawn / game3.3
8−17Season record18−8
1−9Last 108−2

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PHI chance · ATL chance
Our model fair45.2%54.8%
Kalshi42.7%61.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:15 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies+12145%+13442.7%———
ATLAtlanta Braves−12155%−16161.7%———
SpreadATL by 0.6
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies+0.6our margin————
ATLAtlanta Braves−0.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.0
Over9.0our total————
Under9.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Atlanta Braves by 0.6 expected
Philadelphia Phillies by 14 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 13 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 12 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 11 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 10 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 9 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 8 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 7 runs: 2%Philadelphia Phillies by 6 runs: 2%Philadelphia Phillies by 5 runs: 4%Philadelphia Phillies by 4 runs: 5%Philadelphia Phillies by 3 runs: 6%Philadelphia Phillies by 2 runs: 9%Philadelphia Phillies by 1 run: 14%Atlanta Braves by 1 run: 14%Atlanta Braves by 2 runs: 10%Atlanta Braves by 3 runs: 8%Atlanta Braves by 4 runs: 6%Atlanta Braves by 5 runs: 5%Atlanta Braves by 6 runs: 4%Atlanta Braves by 7 runs: 3%Atlanta Braves by 8 runs: 2%Atlanta Braves by 9 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 10 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 11 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 12 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 13 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 14 runs: <1%
← PHI wins byATL wins by →
Atlanta Braves wins by 2 or more41%
Atlanta Braves wins by 3 or more31%
Philadelphia Phillies wins by 2 or more31%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.0 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.558%
Total over 9.540%
Total over 11.525%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
PHIAndrew Painter SP · last 3 starts: 13.1 IP, 5.40 ERA, 13 Kstarted
ATLGrant Holmes SP · last 3 starts: 15.1 IP, 4.11 ERA, 13 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PHI·ATL
Apr 23 at CHC
last game
Apr 23 at WSH
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
7
5th straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 25+ games
PHI·ATL
+0.02
rating (0 = average)
+0.13
3.6
runs / game
5.8
5.6
runs allowed / game
3.4
8−17
season record
18−8
5−10
home record
8−4
3−7
away record
10−4
L9
streak
W2
1−9
last 10
8−2
7.4
hits / game
9.5
1.08
home runs / game
1.42
3.2
walks drawn / game
3.3
8.2
batter strikeouts / game
7.5
9.6
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.4
0.64
errors / game
0.42

Rating Trend

PHI · ATL · 30 days
Philadelphia PhilliesAtlanta Braves
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ATL 5−5
Apr 19at PHIATL 4 − 2
Apr 18at PHIATL 3 − 1
Apr 17at PHIATL 9 − 0
Aug 31, 2025at PHIATL 3 − 1
Aug 30, 2025at PHIPHI 3 − 2
Aug 29, 2025at PHIPHI 2 − 1
Aug 28, 2025at PHIPHI 19 − 4
Jun 29, 2025at ATLPHI 2 − 1
Jun 28, 2025at ATLATL 6 − 1
Jun 27, 2025at ATLPHI 13 − 0

PHI · Last 10

1−9 · streak L9
Apr 23at CHC7 − 8L
Apr 22at CHC2 − 7L
Apr 21at CHC4 − 7L
Apr 20at CHC1 − 5L
Apr 19vs ATL2 − 4L
Apr 18vs ATL1 − 3L
Apr 17vs ATL0 − 9L
Apr 15vs CHC2 − 11L
Apr 14vs CHC4 − 10L
Apr 13vs CHC13 − 7W

ATL · Last 10

8−2 · streak W2
Apr 23at WSH7 − 2W
Apr 22at WSH8 − 6W
Apr 21at WSH4 − 11L
Apr 20at WSH9 − 4W
Apr 19at PHI4 − 2W
Apr 18at PHI3 − 1W
Apr 17at PHI9 − 0W
Apr 15vs MIA6 − 3W
Apr 14vs MIA6 − 5W
Apr 13vs MIA4 − 10L