bayesRatings

Phillies at Cubs

MLB · Thursday, Apr 23 · 1:20 PM CT · Wrigley Field · Final PHI 7 – CHC 8
← MLB / Apr 23

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team12345678910THE
PHI0101003110780
CHC01310101018181
Team box
PHI·CHC
8
hits
18
3
home runs
3
5
walks
5
7
strikeouts
7
155
pitches thrown
162
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Brandon MarshPHI3-4223
Michael BuschCHC2-6114
Seiya SuzukiCHC3-4211
Ian HappCHC2-6311
Dansby SwansonCHC2-5002
Adolis GarciaPHI1-1111
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Cristopher SanchezPHI5.112624
Tanner Banks (L)PHI0.12011
Edward CabreraCHC7.06305
Javier Assad (W)CHC1.00000

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CHC +4
PHI +4
12345678910
largest lead: CHC 4 · PHI 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PHI 43%, CHC 57% · Updated Apr 23

Expected margin
CHC by 0.9
Expected score
CHC 4.7 – 3.8 PHI
Expected total
8.5
PhilliesThe matchupCubs
+131Our fair odds−131
3.8Expected runs4.7
+0.02Power rating+0.21
3.4Runs / game5.5
5.5Allowed / game3.7
7.4Hits / game8.8
1.00Home runs / game1.21
3.1Walks drawn / game4.6
8−16Season record15−9
1−9Last 109−1

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PHI chance · CHC chance
Our model fair43.3%56.7%
Kalshi53.7%51.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 1:20 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies+13143%−11653.7%———
CHCChicago Cubs−13157%−10751.8%———
SpreadCHC by 0.9
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies+0.9our margin————
CHCChicago Cubs−0.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.5
Over8.5our total————
Under8.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Chicago Cubs by 0.9 expected
Philadelphia Phillies by 14 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 13 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 12 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 11 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 10 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 9 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 8 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 7 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 6 runs: 2%Philadelphia Phillies by 5 runs: 3%Philadelphia Phillies by 4 runs: 4%Philadelphia Phillies by 3 runs: 6%Philadelphia Phillies by 2 runs: 9%Philadelphia Phillies by 1 run: 15%Chicago Cubs by 1 run: 13%Chicago Cubs by 2 runs: 11%Chicago Cubs by 3 runs: 8%Chicago Cubs by 4 runs: 7%Chicago Cubs by 5 runs: 5%Chicago Cubs by 6 runs: 4%Chicago Cubs by 7 runs: 3%Chicago Cubs by 8 runs: 2%Chicago Cubs by 9 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 10 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 11 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 12 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 13 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 14 runs: <1%
← PHI wins byCHC wins by →
Chicago Cubs wins by 2 or more44%
Chicago Cubs wins by 3 or more33%
Philadelphia Phillies wins by 2 or more28%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.5 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.565%
Total over 8.545%
Total over 10.529%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
PHICristopher Sanchez SP · last 3 starts: 17.0 IP, 2.12 ERA, 22 Kstarted
CHCEdward Cabrera SP · last 3 starts: 16.2 IP, 3.24 ERA, 12 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PHI·CHC
Apr 22 at CHC
last game
Apr 22 vs PHI
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
4th straight road game
home / road
7th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 24+ games
PHI·CHC
+0.02
rating (0 = average)
+0.21
3.4
runs / game
5.5
5.5
runs allowed / game
3.7
8−16
season record
15−9
5−10
home record
10−5
3−6
away record
5−4
L8
streak
W8
1−9
last 10
9−1
7.4
hits / game
8.8
1.00
home runs / game
1.21
3.1
walks drawn / game
4.6
8.3
batter strikeouts / game
8.3
9.7
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.2
0.67
errors / game
0.54

Rating Trend

PHI · CHC · 29 days
Philadelphia PhilliesChicago Cubs
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CHC 6−4
Apr 22at CHCCHC 7 − 2
Apr 21at CHCCHC 7 − 4
Apr 20at CHCCHC 5 − 1
Apr 15at PHICHC 11 − 2
Apr 14at PHICHC 10 − 4
Apr 13at PHIPHI 13 − 7
Jun 11, 2025at PHIPHI 7 − 2
Jun 10, 2025at PHICHC 8 − 4
Jun 9, 2025at PHIPHI 4 − 3
Apr 27, 2025at CHCPHI 3 − 1

PHI · Last 10

1−9 · streak L8
Apr 22at CHC2 − 7L
Apr 21at CHC4 − 7L
Apr 20at CHC1 − 5L
Apr 19vs ATL2 − 4L
Apr 18vs ATL1 − 3L
Apr 17vs ATL0 − 9L
Apr 15vs CHC2 − 11L
Apr 14vs CHC4 − 10L
Apr 13vs CHC13 − 7W
Apr 12vs ARI3 − 4L

CHC · Last 10

9−1 · streak W8
Apr 22vs PHI7 − 2W
Apr 21vs PHI7 − 4W
Apr 20vs PHI5 − 1W
Apr 19vs NYM2 − 1W
Apr 18vs NYM4 − 2W
Apr 17vs NYM12 − 4W
Apr 15at PHI11 − 2W
Apr 14at PHI10 − 4W
Apr 13at PHI7 − 13L
Apr 12vs PIT7 − 6W