bayesRatings

Yankees at Rangers

MLB · Wednesday, Apr 29 · 1:35 PM CT · Globe Life Field · Final NYY 0 – TEX 3
← MLB / Apr 29

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
NYY000000000050
TEX00002010371
Team box
NYY·TEX
5
hits
7
0
home runs
0
1
walks
4
8
strikeouts
6
141
pitches thrown
129
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Ben RiceNYY3-4000
Josh JungTEX1-4002
Sam HaggertyTEX1-1001
Ezequiel DuranTEX2-2200
Cody BellingerNYY1-4000
Jose CaballeroNYY1-3000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Elmer Rodriguez (L)NYY4.04243
Nathan Eovaldi (W)TEX7.04017
Jacob Latz (S)TEX2.01001

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TEX +3
NYY +3
123456789
largest lead: TEX 3 · NYY 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NYY 54%, TEX 46% · Updated Apr 29

Expected margin
NYY by 0.6
Expected score
NYY 4.4 – 3.8 TEX
Expected total
8.2
YankeesThe matchupRangers
−119Our fair odds+119
4.4Expected runs3.8
+0.29Power rating+0.03
5.1Runs / game3.9
3.4Allowed / game3.7
7.6Hits / game7.8
1.60Home runs / game0.97
4.6Walks drawn / game3.6
20−10Season record14−16
9−1Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NYY chance · TEX chance
Our model fair54.4%45.6%
Kalshi54.7%50.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 1:35 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NYYNew York Yankees−11954%−12154.7%———
TEXTexas Rangers+11946%−10350.7%———
SpreadNYY by 0.6
NYYNew York Yankees−0.6our margin————
TEXTexas Rangers+0.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.2
Over8.2our total————
Under8.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New York Yankees by 0.6 expected
New York Yankees by 13 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 12 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 11 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 10 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 9 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 8 runs: 2%New York Yankees by 7 runs: 2%New York Yankees by 6 runs: 3%New York Yankees by 5 runs: 5%New York Yankees by 4 runs: 6%New York Yankees by 3 runs: 8%New York Yankees by 2 runs: 11%New York Yankees by 1 run: 14%Texas Rangers by 1 run: 16%Texas Rangers by 2 runs: 9%Texas Rangers by 3 runs: 6%Texas Rangers by 4 runs: 5%Texas Rangers by 5 runs: 3%Texas Rangers by 6 runs: 2%Texas Rangers by 7 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 8 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 9 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 10 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 11 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 12 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 13 runs: <1%
← NYY wins byTEX wins by →
New York Yankees wins by 2 or more41%
New York Yankees wins by 3 or more30%
Texas Rangers wins by 2 or more30%
Decided by one run30%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.2 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 8%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.563%
Total over 8.543%
Total over 10.526%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
NYYElmer Rodriguez SP · no recent starts on recordstarted
TEXNathan Eovaldi SP · last 3 starts: 18.0 IP, 4.00 ERA, 13 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NYY·TEX
Apr 28 at TEX
last game
Apr 28 vs NYY
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
7
9th straight road game
home / road
9th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 30+ games
NYY·TEX
+0.29
rating (0 = average)
+0.03
5.1
runs / game
3.9
3.4
runs allowed / game
3.7
20−10
season record
14−16
8−5
home record
6−8
12−5
away record
8−8
W2
streak
L3
9−1
last 10
3−7
7.6
hits / game
7.8
1.60
home runs / game
0.97
4.6
walks drawn / game
3.6
9.0
batter strikeouts / game
9.2
8.7
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.8
0.53
errors / game
0.43

Rating Trend

NYY · TEX · 35 days
New York YankeesTexas Rangers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TEX 4−6
Apr 28at TEXNYY 3 − 2
Apr 27at TEXNYY 4 − 2
Aug 6, 2025at TEXNYY 3 − 2
Aug 5, 2025at TEXTEX 2 − 0
Aug 4, 2025at TEXTEX 8 − 5
May 22, 2025at NYYNYY 1 − 0
May 21, 2025at NYYNYY 4 − 3
May 20, 2025at NYYNYY 5 − 2
Sep 4, 2024at TEXTEX 10 − 6
Sep 3, 2024at TEXTEX 7 − 4

NYY · Last 10

9−1 · streak W2
Apr 28at TEX3 − 2W
Apr 27at TEX4 − 2W
Apr 26at HOU4 − 7L
Apr 25at HOU8 − 3W
Apr 24at HOU12 − 4W
Apr 23at BOS4 − 2W
Apr 22at BOS4 − 1W
Apr 21at BOS4 − 0W
Apr 19vs KC7 − 0W
Apr 18vs KC13 − 4W

TEX · Last 10

3−7 · streak L3
Apr 28vs NYY2 − 3L
Apr 27vs NYY2 − 4L
Apr 26vs ATH1 − 2L
Apr 25vs ATH4 − 3W
Apr 24vs ATH1 − 8L
Apr 23vs PIT6 − 1W
Apr 22vs PIT4 − 8L
Apr 21vs PIT5 − 1W
Apr 19at SEA2 − 5L
Apr 18at SEA3 − 7L