bayesRatings

Yankees at Rangers

MLB · Tuesday, Apr 28 · 7:05 PM CT · Globe Life Field · Final NYY 3 – TEX 2
← MLB / Apr 28

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
NYY100000101351
TEX000000002271
Team box
NYY·TEX
5
hits
7
2
home runs
0
0
walks
4
7
strikeouts
11
150
pitches thrown
139
1
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Aaron JudgeNYY2-4211
Austin WellsNYY2-3111
Josh JungTEX2-4001
Cody BellingerNYY1-4001
Brandon NimmoTEX2-4000
Danny JansenTEX1-3101
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Cam Schlittler (W)NYY6.03028
David Bednar (S)NYY1.02100
Jacob deGrom (L)TEX6.03105

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TEX +3
NYY +3
123456789
largest lead: TEX 0 · NYY 3lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NYY 54%, TEX 46% · Updated Apr 28

Expected margin
NYY by 0.5
Expected score
NYY 4.3 – 3.8 TEX
Expected total
8.2
YankeesThe matchupRangers
−117Our fair odds+117
4.3Expected runs3.8
+0.28Power rating+0.03
5.2Runs / game4.0
3.5Allowed / game3.8
7.7Hits / game7.9
1.59Home runs / game1.00
4.7Walks drawn / game3.6
19−10Season record14−15
9−1Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NYY chance · TEX chance
Our model fair54.0%46.0%
Kalshi55.7%49.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 7:05 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NYYNew York Yankees−11754%−12655.7%———
TEXTexas Rangers+11746%+10149.7%———
SpreadNYY by 0.5
NYYNew York Yankees−0.5our margin————
TEXTexas Rangers+0.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.2
Over8.2our total————
Under8.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New York Yankees by 0.5 expected
New York Yankees by 13 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 12 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 11 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 10 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 9 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 8 runs: 2%New York Yankees by 7 runs: 2%New York Yankees by 6 runs: 3%New York Yankees by 5 runs: 5%New York Yankees by 4 runs: 6%New York Yankees by 3 runs: 8%New York Yankees by 2 runs: 11%New York Yankees by 1 run: 14%Texas Rangers by 1 run: 15%Texas Rangers by 2 runs: 10%Texas Rangers by 3 runs: 7%Texas Rangers by 4 runs: 5%Texas Rangers by 5 runs: 3%Texas Rangers by 6 runs: 2%Texas Rangers by 7 runs: 2%Texas Rangers by 8 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 9 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 10 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 11 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 12 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 13 runs: <1%
← NYY wins byTEX wins by →
New York Yankees wins by 2 or more40%
New York Yankees wins by 3 or more29%
Texas Rangers wins by 2 or more31%
Decided by one run30%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.2 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 8%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.563%
Total over 8.543%
Total over 10.526%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
NYYCam Schlittler SP · last 3 starts: 19.0 IP, 1.89 ERA, 19 Kstarted
TEXJacob deGrom SP · last 3 starts: 15.2 IP, 1.15 ERA, 22 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NYY·TEX
Apr 27 at TEX
last game
Apr 27 vs NYY
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
7
8th straight road game
home / road
8th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 29+ games
NYY·TEX
+0.28
rating (0 = average)
+0.03
5.2
runs / game
4.0
3.5
runs allowed / game
3.8
19−10
season record
14−15
8−5
home record
6−7
11−5
away record
8−8
W1
streak
L2
9−1
last 10
4−6
7.7
hits / game
7.9
1.59
home runs / game
1.00
4.7
walks drawn / game
3.6
9.1
batter strikeouts / game
9.2
8.7
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.9
0.52
errors / game
0.41

Rating Trend

NYY · TEX · 34 days
New York YankeesTexas Rangers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TEX 4−6
Apr 27at TEXNYY 4 − 2
Aug 6, 2025at TEXNYY 3 − 2
Aug 5, 2025at TEXTEX 2 − 0
Aug 4, 2025at TEXTEX 8 − 5
May 22, 2025at NYYNYY 1 − 0
May 21, 2025at NYYNYY 4 − 3
May 20, 2025at NYYNYY 5 − 2
Sep 4, 2024at TEXTEX 10 − 6
Sep 3, 2024at TEXTEX 7 − 4
Sep 2, 2024at TEXNYY 8 − 4

NYY · Last 10

9−1 · streak W1
Apr 27at TEX4 − 2W
Apr 26at HOU4 − 7L
Apr 25at HOU8 − 3W
Apr 24at HOU12 − 4W
Apr 23at BOS4 − 2W
Apr 22at BOS4 − 1W
Apr 21at BOS4 − 0W
Apr 19vs KC7 − 0W
Apr 18vs KC13 − 4W
Apr 17vs KC4 − 2W

TEX · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
Apr 27vs NYY2 − 4L
Apr 26vs ATH1 − 2L
Apr 25vs ATH4 − 3W
Apr 24vs ATH1 − 8L
Apr 23vs PIT6 − 1W
Apr 22vs PIT4 − 8L
Apr 21vs PIT5 − 1W
Apr 19at SEA2 − 5L
Apr 18at SEA3 − 7L
Apr 17at SEA5 − 0W