bayesRatings

Tigers at Braves

MLB · Wednesday, Apr 29 · 6:15 PM CT · Truist Park · Final DET 3 – ATL 4
← MLB / Apr 29

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
DET021000000350
ATL200000002461
Team box
DET·ATL
5
hits
6
1
home runs
2
4
walks
3
10
strikeouts
8
131
pitches thrown
142
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Matt OlsonATL2-4112
Ozzie AlbiesATL1-3212
Riley GreeneDET1-4111
Kevin McGonigleDET2-4001
Drake BaldwinATL2-4100
Michael Harris IIATL1-3000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Tarik SkubalDET7.05207
Kenley Jansen (L)DET0.01210
JR RitchieATL5.15244
Reynaldo Lopez (W)ATL2.00002

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ATL +3
DET +3
123456789
largest lead: ATL 2 · DET 1lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was DET 46%, ATL 54% · Updated Apr 29

Expected margin
ATL by 0.5
Expected score
ATL 4.6 – 4.1 DET
Expected total
8.7
TigersThe matchupBraves
+119Our fair odds−119
4.1Expected runs4.6
+0.05Power rating+0.14
4.5Runs / game5.7
4.2Allowed / game3.4
8.3Hits / game9.5
1.07Home runs / game1.37
3.8Walks drawn / game3.2
15−15Season record21−9
5−5Last 108−2

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DET chance · ATL chance
Our model fair45.7%54.3%
Kalshi58.7%45.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:15 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DETDetroit Tigers+11946%−14258.7%———
ATLAtlanta Braves−11954%+11945.7%———
SpreadATL by 0.5
DETDetroit Tigers+0.5our margin————
ATLAtlanta Braves−0.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.7
Over8.7our total————
Under8.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Atlanta Braves by 0.5 expected
Detroit Tigers by 13 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 12 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 11 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 10 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 9 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 8 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 7 runs: 2%Detroit Tigers by 6 runs: 2%Detroit Tigers by 5 runs: 4%Detroit Tigers by 4 runs: 5%Detroit Tigers by 3 runs: 7%Detroit Tigers by 2 runs: 9%Detroit Tigers by 1 run: 14%Atlanta Braves by 1 run: 14%Atlanta Braves by 2 runs: 10%Atlanta Braves by 3 runs: 8%Atlanta Braves by 4 runs: 6%Atlanta Braves by 5 runs: 5%Atlanta Braves by 6 runs: 3%Atlanta Braves by 7 runs: 2%Atlanta Braves by 8 runs: 2%Atlanta Braves by 9 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 10 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 11 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 12 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 13 runs: <1%
← DET wins byATL wins by →
Atlanta Braves wins by 2 or more40%
Atlanta Braves wins by 3 or more30%
Detroit Tigers wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.7 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.567%
Total over 8.547%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
DETTarik Skubal SP · last 3 starts: 18.2 IP, 2.89 ERA, 22 Kstarted
ATLJR Ritchie SP · last 1 start: 7.0 IP, 2.57 ERA, 7 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DET·ATL
Apr 28 at ATL
last game
Apr 28 vs DET
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
5th straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 30+ games
DET·ATL
+0.05
rating (0 = average)
+0.14
4.5
runs / game
5.7
4.2
runs allowed / game
3.4
15−15
season record
21−9
10−2
home record
11−5
5−13
away record
10−4
L1
streak
W2
5−5
last 10
8−2
8.3
hits / game
9.5
1.07
home runs / game
1.37
3.8
walks drawn / game
3.2
8.1
batter strikeouts / game
7.4
8.1
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.4
0.57
errors / game
0.40

Rating Trend

DET · ATL · 35 days
Detroit TigersAtlanta Braves
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ATL 9−1
Apr 28at ATLATL 5 − 2
Sep 21, 2025at DETATL 6 − 2
Sep 20, 2025at DETATL 6 − 5
Sep 19, 2025at DETATL 10 − 1
Jun 19, 2024at ATLATL 7 − 0
Jun 18, 2024at ATLATL 2 − 1
Jun 17, 2024at ATLATL 2 − 1
Jun 14, 2023at DETATL 6 − 5
Jun 14, 2023at DETATL 10 − 7
Jun 12, 2023at DETDET 6 − 5

DET · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Apr 28at ATL2 − 5L
Apr 26at CIN8 − 3W
Apr 25at CIN2 − 9L
Apr 24at CIN8 − 9L
Apr 23vs MIL5 − 4W
Apr 22vs MIL5 − 2W
Apr 21vs MIL4 − 12L
Apr 20at BOS6 − 8L
Apr 19at BOS6 − 2W
Apr 18at BOS4 − 1W

ATL · Last 10

8−2 · streak W2
Apr 28vs DET5 − 2W
Apr 26vs PHI6 − 2W
Apr 25vs PHI5 − 8L
Apr 24vs PHI5 − 3W
Apr 23at WSH7 − 2W
Apr 22at WSH8 − 6W
Apr 21at WSH4 − 11L
Apr 20at WSH9 − 4W
Apr 19at PHI4 − 2W
Apr 18at PHI3 − 1W