bayesRatings

Tigers at Braves

MLB · Thursday, Apr 30 · 11:15 AM CT · Truist Park · Final DET 5 – ATL 2
← MLB / Apr 30

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
DET0000010225120
ATL011000000281
Team box
DET·ATL
12
hits
8
0
home runs
0
8
walks
1
10
strikeouts
11
147
pitches thrown
177
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Matt VierlingDET3-5202
Gleyber TorresDET3-4001
Ozzie AlbiesATL2-4100
Mauricio DubonATL1-3101
Eli WhiteATL1-3001
Dillon DinglerDET1-2001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Framber ValdezDET6.06208
Drew Anderson (W)DET2.01012
Kyle Finnegan (S)DET1.01001
Bryce ElderATL6.06135
Joel Payamps (L)ATL0.12211

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ATL +3
DET +3
123456789
largest lead: ATL 2 · DET 3lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was DET 45%, ATL 55% · Updated Apr 30

Expected margin
ATL by 0.6
Expected score
ATL 4.6 – 4.0 DET
Expected total
8.7
TigersThe matchupBraves
+120Our fair odds−120
4.0Expected runs4.6
+0.04Power rating+0.15
4.4Runs / game5.6
4.2Allowed / game3.4
8.2Hits / game9.4
1.06Home runs / game1.39
3.8Walks drawn / game3.2
15−16Season record22−9
4−6Last 108−2

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DET chance · ATL chance
Our model fair45.4%54.6%
Kalshi48.7%56.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 11:15 AM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DETDetroit Tigers+12045%+10548.7%———
ATLAtlanta Braves−12055%−13156.7%———
SpreadATL by 0.6
DETDetroit Tigers+0.6our margin————
ATLAtlanta Braves−0.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.7
Over8.7our total————
Under8.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Atlanta Braves by 0.6 expected
Detroit Tigers by 13 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 12 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 11 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 10 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 9 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 8 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 7 runs: 2%Detroit Tigers by 6 runs: 2%Detroit Tigers by 5 runs: 3%Detroit Tigers by 4 runs: 5%Detroit Tigers by 3 runs: 6%Detroit Tigers by 2 runs: 9%Detroit Tigers by 1 run: 15%Atlanta Braves by 1 run: 14%Atlanta Braves by 2 runs: 10%Atlanta Braves by 3 runs: 8%Atlanta Braves by 4 runs: 6%Atlanta Braves by 5 runs: 5%Atlanta Braves by 6 runs: 4%Atlanta Braves by 7 runs: 3%Atlanta Braves by 8 runs: 2%Atlanta Braves by 9 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 10 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 11 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 12 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 13 runs: <1%
← DET wins byATL wins by →
Atlanta Braves wins by 2 or more41%
Atlanta Braves wins by 3 or more31%
Detroit Tigers wins by 2 or more31%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.7 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.567%
Total over 8.547%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
DETFramber Valdez SP · last 3 starts: 17.1 IP, 2.08 ERA, 12 Kstarted
ATLBryce Elder SP · last 3 starts: 19.1 IP, 2.79 ERA, 15 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DET·ATL
Apr 29 at ATL
last game
Apr 29 vs DET
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
6th straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 31+ games
DET·ATL
+0.04
rating (0 = average)
+0.15
4.4
runs / game
5.6
4.2
runs allowed / game
3.4
15−16
season record
22−9
10−2
home record
12−5
5−14
away record
10−4
L2
streak
W3
4−6
last 10
8−2
8.2
hits / game
9.4
1.06
home runs / game
1.39
3.8
walks drawn / game
3.2
8.1
batter strikeouts / game
7.5
8.1
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.4
0.55
errors / game
0.42

Rating Trend

DET · ATL · 36 days
Detroit TigersAtlanta Braves
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ATL 10−0
Apr 29at ATLATL 4 − 3
Apr 28at ATLATL 5 − 2
Sep 21, 2025at DETATL 6 − 2
Sep 20, 2025at DETATL 6 − 5
Sep 19, 2025at DETATL 10 − 1
Jun 19, 2024at ATLATL 7 − 0
Jun 18, 2024at ATLATL 2 − 1
Jun 17, 2024at ATLATL 2 − 1
Jun 14, 2023at DETATL 6 − 5
Jun 14, 2023at DETATL 10 − 7

DET · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
Apr 29at ATL3 − 4L
Apr 28at ATL2 − 5L
Apr 26at CIN8 − 3W
Apr 25at CIN2 − 9L
Apr 24at CIN8 − 9L
Apr 23vs MIL5 − 4W
Apr 22vs MIL5 − 2W
Apr 21vs MIL4 − 12L
Apr 20at BOS6 − 8L
Apr 19at BOS6 − 2W

ATL · Last 10

8−2 · streak W3
Apr 29vs DET4 − 3W
Apr 28vs DET5 − 2W
Apr 26vs PHI6 − 2W
Apr 25vs PHI5 − 8L
Apr 24vs PHI5 − 3W
Apr 23at WSH7 − 2W
Apr 22at WSH8 − 6W
Apr 21at WSH4 − 11L
Apr 20at WSH9 − 4W
Apr 19at PHI4 − 2W