bayesRatings

Astros at Red Sox

MLB · Saturday, May 2 · 3:10 PM CT · Fenway Park · Final HOU 6 – BOS 3
← MLB / May 2

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
HOU1004100006120
BOS000010200380
Team box
HOU·BOS
12
hits
8
2
home runs
0
4
walks
7
7
strikeouts
7
147
pitches thrown
142
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Christian WalkerHOU3-4212
Brice MatthewsHOU2-3113
Wilyer AbreuBOS2-3001
Carlos CorreaHOU2-4101
Trevor StoryBOS1-4001
Willson ContrerasBOS1-4101
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Spencer Arrighetti (W)HOU5.05154
Bryan King (S)HOU1.00000
Connelly Early (L)BOS4.06533

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
BOS +6
HOU +6
123456789
largest lead: BOS 0 · HOU 6lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was HOU 45%, BOS 55% · Updated May 2

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
BOS 4.6 – 4.2 HOU
Expected total
8.8
AstrosThe matchupRed Sox
+120Our fair odds−120
4.2Expected runs4.6
−0.06Power rating+0.05
5.1Runs / game3.9
6.0Allowed / game4.4
9.2Hits / game7.8
1.24Home runs / game0.69
3.9Walks drawn / game3.2
12−21Season record13−19
4−6Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
HOU chance · BOS chance
Our model fair45.4%54.6%
Kalshi46.7%57.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 3:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
HOUHouston Astros+12045%+11446.7%———
BOSBoston Red Sox−12055%−13757.7%———
Spreadabout even
HOUHouston Astros+0.4our margin————
BOSBoston Red Sox−0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.8
Over8.8our total————
Under8.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Houston Astros by 13 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 12 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 11 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 10 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 9 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 8 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 7 runs: 2%Houston Astros by 6 runs: 3%Houston Astros by 5 runs: 4%Houston Astros by 4 runs: 5%Houston Astros by 3 runs: 7%Houston Astros by 2 runs: 9%Houston Astros by 1 run: 13%Boston Red Sox by 1 run: 16%Boston Red Sox by 2 runs: 10%Boston Red Sox by 3 runs: 8%Boston Red Sox by 4 runs: 6%Boston Red Sox by 5 runs: 5%Boston Red Sox by 6 runs: 3%Boston Red Sox by 7 runs: 2%Boston Red Sox by 8 runs: 2%Boston Red Sox by 9 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 10 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 11 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 12 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 13 runs: <1%
← HOU wins byBOS wins by →
Boston Red Sox wins by 2 or more39%
Boston Red Sox wins by 3 or more29%
Houston Astros wins by 2 or more33%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.8 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.568%
Total over 8.548%
Total over 10.531%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
HOUSpencer Arrighetti SP · last 3 starts: 18.0 IP, 2.00 ERA, 21 Kstarted
BOSConnelly Early SP · last 3 starts: 18.0 IP, 3.00 ERA, 13 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
HOU·BOS
May 1 at BOS
last game
May 1 vs HOU
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
5th straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 32+ games
HOU·BOS
−0.06
rating (0 = average)
+0.05
5.1
runs / game
3.9
6.0
runs allowed / game
4.4
12−21
season record
13−19
8−8
home record
6−8
4−13
away record
7−11
L1
streak
W1
4−6
last 10
4−6
9.2
hits / game
7.8
1.24
home runs / game
0.69
3.9
walks drawn / game
3.2
7.7
batter strikeouts / game
8.2
9.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.9
0.33
errors / game
0.50

Rating Trend

HOU · BOS · 38 days
Houston AstrosBoston Red Sox
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · BOS 5−5
May 1at BOSBOS 3 − 1
Apr 1at HOUHOU 6 − 4
Mar 31at HOUHOU 9 − 2
Mar 30at HOUHOU 8 − 1
Aug 13, 2025at HOUHOU 4 − 1
Aug 12, 2025at HOUBOS 14 − 1
Aug 11, 2025at HOUHOU 7 − 6
Aug 3, 2025at BOSBOS 6 − 1
Aug 2, 2025at BOSBOS 7 − 3
Aug 1, 2025at BOSBOS 2 − 1

HOU · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
May 1at BOS1 − 3L
Apr 30at BAL11 − 5W
Apr 30at BAL3 − 10L
Apr 28at BAL3 − 5L
Apr 26vs NYY7 − 4W
Apr 25vs NYY3 − 8L
Apr 24vs NYY4 − 12L
Apr 22at CLE2 − 0W
Apr 21at CLE5 − 8L
Apr 20at CLE9 − 2W

BOS · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
May 1vs HOU3 − 1W
Apr 29at TOR1 − 8L
Apr 28at TOR0 − 3L
Apr 27at TOR5 − 0W
Apr 26at BAL5 − 3W
Apr 25at BAL17 − 1W
Apr 24at BAL3 − 10L
Apr 23vs NYY2 − 4L
Apr 22vs NYY1 − 4L
Apr 21vs NYY0 − 4L