bayesRatings

Rangers at Tigers

MLB · Saturday, May 2 · 6:15 PM CT · Comerica Park · Final TEX 1 – DET 5
← MLB / May 2

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
TEX000100000170
DET320000005120
Team box
TEX·DET
7
hits
12
1
home runs
1
2
walks
3
5
strikeouts
7
150
pitches thrown
113
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Dillon DinglerDET2-4113
Jake BurgerTEX1-4111
Gleyber TorresDET2-2001
Wenceel PerezDET2-3100
Riley GreeneDET2-4100
Colt KeithDET2-3100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Kumar Rocker (L)TEX2.07502
Keider Montero (W)DET6.25122

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
DET +5
TEX +5
123456789
largest lead: DET 5 · TEX 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TEX 48%, DET 52% · Updated May 2

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
DET 4.1 – 3.8 TEX
Expected total
7.9
RangersThe matchupTigers
+109Our fair odds−109
3.8Expected runs4.1
+0.04Power rating+0.05
3.9Runs / game4.4
3.6Allowed / game4.2
7.8Hits / game8.3
0.94Home runs / game1.00
3.6Walks drawn / game3.9
16−16Season record16−17
5−5Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TEX chance · DET chance
Our model fair47.8%52.2%
Kalshi47.7%56.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:15 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TEXTexas Rangers+10948%+10947.7%———
DETDetroit Tigers−10952%−13156.7%———
Spreadabout even
TEXTexas Rangers+0.3our margin————
DETDetroit Tigers−0.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 7.9
Over7.9our total————
Under7.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Texas Rangers by 12 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 11 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 10 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 9 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 8 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 7 runs: 2%Texas Rangers by 6 runs: 2%Texas Rangers by 5 runs: 4%Texas Rangers by 4 runs: 5%Texas Rangers by 3 runs: 7%Texas Rangers by 2 runs: 10%Texas Rangers by 1 run: 16%Detroit Tigers by 1 run: 15%Detroit Tigers by 2 runs: 11%Detroit Tigers by 3 runs: 8%Detroit Tigers by 4 runs: 6%Detroit Tigers by 5 runs: 4%Detroit Tigers by 6 runs: 3%Detroit Tigers by 7 runs: 2%Detroit Tigers by 8 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 9 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 10 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 11 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 12 runs: <1%
← TEX wins byDET wins by →
Detroit Tigers wins by 2 or more38%
Detroit Tigers wins by 3 or more27%
Texas Rangers wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run31%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

7.9 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 8%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 13%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 5.568%
Total over 7.548%
Total over 9.530%
Total from 6 to 939%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
TEXKumar Rocker SP · last 3 starts: 16.2 IP, 2.70 ERA, 14 Kstarted
DETKeider Montero SP · last 3 starts: 16.2 IP, 5.40 ERA, 13 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TEX·DET
May 1 at DET
last game
May 1 vs TEX
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 32+ games
TEX·DET
+0.04
rating (0 = average)
+0.05
3.9
runs / game
4.4
3.6
runs allowed / game
4.2
16−16
season record
16−17
7−8
home record
10−3
9−8
away record
6−14
W2
streak
L1
5−5
last 10
4−6
7.8
hits / game
8.3
0.94
home runs / game
1.00
3.6
walks drawn / game
3.9
9.2
batter strikeouts / game
8.1
8.7
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.3
0.47
errors / game
0.52

Rating Trend

TEX · DET · 38 days
Texas RangersDetroit Tigers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · DET 4−6
May 1at DETTEX 5 − 4
Jul 20, 2025at TEXDET 2 − 1
Jul 19, 2025at TEXTEX 4 − 1
Jul 18, 2025at TEXTEX 2 − 0
May 11, 2025at DETTEX 6 − 1
May 10, 2025at DETTEX 10 − 3
May 9, 2025at DETDET 2 − 1
Jun 5, 2024at TEXTEX 9 − 1
Jun 4, 2024at TEXDET 3 − 1
Jun 3, 2024at TEXDET 2 − 1

TEX · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
May 1at DET5 − 4W
Apr 29vs NYY3 − 0W
Apr 28vs NYY2 − 3L
Apr 27vs NYY2 − 4L
Apr 26vs ATH1 − 2L
Apr 25vs ATH4 − 3W
Apr 24vs ATH1 − 8L
Apr 23vs PIT6 − 1W
Apr 22vs PIT4 − 8L
Apr 21vs PIT5 − 1W

DET · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
May 1vs TEX4 − 5L
Apr 30at ATL5 − 2W
Apr 29at ATL3 − 4L
Apr 28at ATL2 − 5L
Apr 26at CIN8 − 3W
Apr 25at CIN2 − 9L
Apr 24at CIN8 − 9L
Apr 23vs MIL5 − 4W
Apr 22vs MIL5 − 2W
Apr 21vs MIL4 − 12L