bayesRatings

Tigers at Royals

MLB · Friday, May 8 · 6:40 PM CT · Kauffman Stadium · Final DET 3 – KC 4
← MLB / May 8

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
DET010002000381
KC010000021480
Team box
DET·KC
8
hits
8
0
home runs
0
5
walks
3
6
strikeouts
6
127
pitches thrown
147
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Kyle IsbelKC2-4102
Wenceel PerezDET2-4101
Riley GreeneDET3-4100
Spencer TorkelsonDET1-4001
Isaac CollinsKC1-4001
Maikel GarciaKC1-4001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Keider MonteroDET6.03114
Brant Hurter (L)DET1.22111
Kris BubicKC5.24345
Lucas Erceg (W)KC1.01010

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
KC +3
DET +3
123456789
largest lead: KC 1 · DET 2lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was DET 49%, KC 51% · Updated May 8

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
KC 4.0 – 4.0 DET
Expected total
8.0
TigersThe matchupRoyals
+104Our fair odds−104
4.0Expected runs4.0
+0.03Power rating−0.01
4.3Runs / game4.1
4.2Allowed / game4.6
8.1Hits / game8.0
0.95Home runs / game1.03
3.8Walks drawn / game3.6
18−20Season record17−21
4−6Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DET chance · KC chance
Our model fair49.1%50.9%
Kalshi45.7%59.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DETDetroit Tigers+10449%+11945.7%———
KCKansas City Royals−10451%−14859.7%———
Spreadabout even
DETDetroit Tigers+0.1our margin————
KCKansas City Royals−0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.0
Over8.0our total————
Under8.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Detroit Tigers by 12 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 11 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 10 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 9 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 8 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 7 runs: 2%Detroit Tigers by 6 runs: 3%Detroit Tigers by 5 runs: 4%Detroit Tigers by 4 runs: 5%Detroit Tigers by 3 runs: 7%Detroit Tigers by 2 runs: 10%Detroit Tigers by 1 run: 15%Kansas City Royals by 1 run: 15%Kansas City Royals by 2 runs: 10%Kansas City Royals by 3 runs: 7%Kansas City Royals by 4 runs: 6%Kansas City Royals by 5 runs: 4%Kansas City Royals by 6 runs: 3%Kansas City Royals by 7 runs: 2%Kansas City Royals by 8 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 9 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 10 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 11 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 12 runs: <1%
← DET wins byKC wins by →
Kansas City Royals wins by 2 or more36%
Kansas City Royals wins by 3 or more25%
Detroit Tigers wins by 2 or more34%
Decided by one run30%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.0 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 8%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.561%
Total over 8.541%
Total over 10.525%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
DETKeider Montero SP · last 3 starts: 17.1 IP, 3.63 ERA, 10 Kstarted
KCKris Bubic SP · last 3 starts: 18.0 IP, 2.50 ERA, 16 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DET·KC
May 6 vs BOS
last game
May 7 vs CLE
1 day
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
road after a home game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 38+ games
DET·KC
+0.03
rating (0 = average)
−0.01
4.3
runs / game
4.1
4.2
runs allowed / game
4.6
18−20
season record
17−21
12−6
home record
11−9
6−14
away record
6−12
L3
streak
L2
4−6
last 10
6−4
8.1
hits / game
8.0
0.95
home runs / game
1.03
3.8
walks drawn / game
3.6
8.3
batter strikeouts / game
8.4
8.5
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.5
0.55
errors / game
0.26

Rating Trend

DET · KC · 44 days
Detroit TigersKansas City Royals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · KC 2−8
Apr 16at DETDET 10 − 9
Apr 15at DETDET 2 − 1
Apr 14at DETDET 2 − 1
Aug 31, 2025at KCDET 5 − 0
Aug 30, 2025at KCKC 3 − 1
Aug 29, 2025at KCDET 5 − 3
Aug 24, 2025at DETKC 10 − 8
Aug 23, 2025at DETDET 4 − 2
Aug 22, 2025at DETDET 7 − 5
Jun 1, 2025at KCDET 1 − 0

DET · Last 10

4−6 · streak L3
May 6vs BOS0 − 4L
May 5vs BOS3 − 10L
May 4vs BOS4 − 5L
May 3vs TEX7 − 1W
May 2vs TEX5 − 1W
May 1vs TEX4 − 5L
Apr 30at ATL5 − 2W
Apr 29at ATL3 − 4L
Apr 28at ATL2 − 5L
Apr 26at CIN8 − 3W

KC · Last 10

6−4 · streak L2
May 7vs CLE5 − 8L
May 6vs CLE1 − 3L
May 5vs CLE5 − 3W
May 4vs CLE6 − 2W
May 3at SEA4 − 1W
May 2at SEA3 − 2W
May 1at SEA7 − 6W
Apr 30at ATH3 − 6L
Apr 29at ATH2 − 5L
Apr 28at ATH4 − 1W