bayesRatings

Guardians at Royals

MLB · Wednesday, May 6 · 6:40 PM CT · Kauffman Stadium · Final CLE 3 – KC 1
← MLB / May 6

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CLE000020010360
KC001000000141
Team box
CLE·KC
6
hits
4
0
home runs
0
6
walks
5
8
strikeouts
8
128
pitches thrown
179
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Chase DeLauterCLE2-4002
Maikel GarciaKC2-3000
Austin HedgesCLE1-3100
David FryCLE0-4001
Daniel SchneemannCLE1-3000
Angel MartinezCLE1-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Joey Cantillo (W)CLE5.03131
Cade Smith (S)CLE1.01003
Cole RagansKC3.01024
Luinder Avila (L)KC2.02222

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
KC +3
CLE +3
123456789
largest lead: KC 1 · CLE 2lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CLE 49%, KC 51% · Updated May 6

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
KC 4.1 – 3.7 CLE
Expected total
7.8
GuardiansThe matchupRoyals
+106Our fair odds−106
3.7Expected runs4.1
+0.04Power rating+0.01
4.1Runs / game4.2
4.3Allowed / game4.5
7.5Hits / game8.0
1.03Home runs / game1.03
3.8Walks drawn / game3.6
18−19Season record17−19
3−7Last 108−2

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CLE chance · KC chance
Our model fair48.6%51.4%
Kalshi45.7%58.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CLECleveland Guardians+10649%+11945.7%———
KCKansas City Royals−10651%−14258.7%———
Spreadabout even
CLECleveland Guardians+0.4our margin————
KCKansas City Royals−0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 7.8
Over7.8our total————
Under7.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Cleveland Guardians by 12 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 11 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 10 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 9 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 8 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 7 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 6 runs: 2%Cleveland Guardians by 5 runs: 3%Cleveland Guardians by 4 runs: 5%Cleveland Guardians by 3 runs: 7%Cleveland Guardians by 2 runs: 10%Cleveland Guardians by 1 run: 18%Kansas City Royals by 1 run: 13%Kansas City Royals by 2 runs: 11%Kansas City Royals by 3 runs: 8%Kansas City Royals by 4 runs: 6%Kansas City Royals by 5 runs: 4%Kansas City Royals by 6 runs: 3%Kansas City Royals by 7 runs: 2%Kansas City Royals by 8 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 9 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 10 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 11 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 12 runs: <1%
← CLE wins byKC wins by →
Kansas City Royals wins by 2 or more39%
Kansas City Royals wins by 3 or more28%
Cleveland Guardians wins by 2 or more30%
Decided by one run31%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

7.8 expected
1 runs: 3%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 9%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 13%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: <1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 5.568%
Total over 7.547%
Total over 9.529%
Total from 6 to 939%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CLEJoey Cantillo SP · last 3 starts: 13.2 IP, 5.27 ERA, 12 Kstarted
KCCole Ragans SP · last 3 starts: 15.2 IP, 6.89 ERA, 25 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CLE·KC
May 5 at KC
last game
May 5 vs CLE
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
6th straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 36+ games
CLE·KC
+0.04
rating (0 = average)
+0.01
4.1
runs / game
4.2
4.3
runs allowed / game
4.5
18−19
season record
17−19
9−7
home record
11−7
9−12
away record
6−12
L3
streak
W5
3−7
last 10
8−2
7.5
hits / game
8.0
1.03
home runs / game
1.03
3.8
walks drawn / game
3.6
7.5
batter strikeouts / game
8.5
9.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.4
0.46
errors / game
0.25

Rating Trend

CLE · KC · 42 days
Cleveland GuardiansKansas City Royals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · KC 5−5
May 5at KCKC 5 − 3
May 4at KCKC 6 − 2
Apr 8at CLECLE 10 − 2
Apr 7at CLECLE 2 − 1
Apr 6at CLEKC 4 − 2
Sep 11, 2025at CLECLE 3 − 2
Sep 10, 2025at CLEKC 4 − 3
Sep 9, 2025at CLECLE 2 − 0
Sep 8, 2025at CLECLE 10 − 2
Jul 27, 2025at KCKC 4 − 1

CLE · Last 10

3−7 · streak L3
May 5at KC3 − 5L
May 4at KC2 − 6L
May 3at ATH1 − 7L
May 2at ATH14 − 6W
May 1at ATH8 − 5W
Apr 29vs TB3 − 1W
Apr 28vs TB0 − 1L
Apr 27vs TB2 − 3L
Apr 26at TOR2 − 4L
Apr 25at TOR3 − 5L

KC · Last 10

8−2 · streak W5
May 5vs CLE5 − 3W
May 4vs CLE6 − 2W
May 3at SEA4 − 1W
May 2at SEA3 − 2W
May 1at SEA7 − 6W
Apr 30at ATH3 − 6L
Apr 29at ATH2 − 5L
Apr 28at ATH4 − 1W
Apr 26vs LAA11 − 9W
Apr 25vs LAA12 − 1W