bayesRatings

Guardians at Athletics

MLB · Saturday, May 2 · 3:05 PM CT · Sutter Health Park · Final CLE 14 – ATH 6
← MLB / May 2

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CLE00104133214140
ATH2001110106140
Team box
CLE·ATH
14
hits
14
3
home runs
2
6
walks
2
8
strikeouts
5
130
pitches thrown
199
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Shea LangeliersATH3-5223
Austin HedgesCLE3-5311
Kyle ManzardoCLE1-1113
David FryCLE1-3112
Jeff McNeilATH2-3002
Nick KurtzATH2-5101
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Slade Cecconi (W)CLE5.110503
Jacob Lopez (L)ATH5.18615

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ATH +8
CLE +8
123456789
largest lead: ATH 2 · CLE 8lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CLE 50%, ATH 50% · Updated May 2

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
CLE 4.3 – 4.2 ATH
Expected total
8.5
GuardiansThe matchupAthletics
−101Our fair odds+101
4.3Expected runs4.2
+0.05Power rating−0.04
4.0Runs / game4.2
4.1Allowed / game4.5
7.5Hits / game8.4
0.97Home runs / game1.03
3.9Walks drawn / game3.8
17−16Season record17−15
4−6Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CLE chance · ATH chance
Our model fair50.3%49.7%
Kalshi46.7%57.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 3:05 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CLECleveland Guardians−10150%+11446.7%———
ATHAthletics+10150%−13757.7%———
Spreadabout even
CLECleveland Guardians−0.2our margin————
ATHAthletics+0.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.5
Over8.5our total————
Under8.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Cleveland Guardians by 12 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 11 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 10 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 9 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 8 runs: 2%Cleveland Guardians by 7 runs: 2%Cleveland Guardians by 6 runs: 3%Cleveland Guardians by 5 runs: 4%Cleveland Guardians by 4 runs: 6%Cleveland Guardians by 3 runs: 7%Cleveland Guardians by 2 runs: 10%Cleveland Guardians by 1 run: 13%Athletics by 1 run: 16%Athletics by 2 runs: 10%Athletics by 3 runs: 7%Athletics by 4 runs: 5%Athletics by 5 runs: 4%Athletics by 6 runs: 3%Athletics by 7 runs: 2%Athletics by 8 runs: 1%Athletics by 9 runs: 1%Athletics by 10 runs: 1%Athletics by 11 runs: <1%Athletics by 12 runs: <1%
← CLE wins byATH wins by →
Cleveland Guardians wins by 2 or more38%
Cleveland Guardians wins by 3 or more27%
Athletics wins by 2 or more34%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.5 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.565%
Total over 8.546%
Total over 10.529%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CLESlade Cecconi SP · last 3 starts: 14.2 IP, 6.75 ERA, 11 Kstarted
ATHJacob Lopez SP · last 3 starts: 15.1 IP, 5.28 ERA, 11 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CLE·ATH
May 1 at ATH
last game
May 1 vs CLE
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
2nd straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 32+ games
CLE·ATH
+0.05
rating (0 = average)
−0.04
4.0
runs / game
4.2
4.1
runs allowed / game
4.5
17−16
season record
17−15
9−7
home record
7−7
8−9
away record
10−8
W2
streak
L1
4−6
last 10
6−4
7.5
hits / game
8.4
0.97
home runs / game
1.03
3.9
walks drawn / game
3.8
7.8
batter strikeouts / game
8.7
9.2
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.0
0.48
errors / game
0.22

Rating Trend

CLE · ATH · 38 days
Cleveland GuardiansAthletics
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ATH 2−8
May 1at ATHCLE 8 − 5
Jul 20, 2025at CLECLE 8 − 2
Jul 19, 2025at CLEATH 8 − 2
Jul 18, 2025at CLECLE 8 − 6
Jun 22, 2025at ATHCLE 3 − 0
Jun 21, 2025at ATHCLE 4 − 2
Jun 20, 2025at ATHATH 5 − 1
Apr 21, 2024at CLECLE 6 − 2
Apr 20, 2024at CLECLE 6 − 3
Apr 19, 2024at CLECLE 10 − 2

CLE · Last 10

4−6 · streak W2
May 1at ATH8 − 5W
Apr 29vs TB3 − 1W
Apr 28vs TB0 − 1L
Apr 27vs TB2 − 3L
Apr 26at TOR2 − 4L
Apr 25at TOR3 − 5L
Apr 24at TOR8 − 6W
Apr 22vs HOU0 − 2L
Apr 21vs HOU8 − 5W
Apr 20vs HOU2 − 9L

ATH · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
May 1vs CLE5 − 8L
Apr 30vs KC6 − 3W
Apr 29vs KC5 − 2W
Apr 28vs KC1 − 4L
Apr 26at TEX2 − 1W
Apr 25at TEX3 − 4L
Apr 24at TEX8 − 1W
Apr 22at SEA4 − 5L
Apr 21at SEA5 − 2W
Apr 20at SEA6 − 4W