bayesRatings

Guardians at Athletics

MLB · Friday, May 1 · 8:40 PM CT · Sutter Health Park · Final CLE 8 – ATH 5
← MLB / May 1

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CLE0200303008112
ATH200200100591
Team box
CLE·ATH
11
hits
9
1
home runs
1
8
walks
6
9
strikeouts
6
160
pitches thrown
179
2
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Brent RookerATH2-5113
Rhys HoskinsCLE2-4113
Chase DeLauterCLE4-4102
Zack GelofATH1-2002
Bo NaylorCLE2-5201
Jeff McNeilATH2-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Joey CantilloCLE4.05432
Erik Sabrowski (W)CLE1.00002
Cade Smith (S)CLE1.10001
J.T. Ginn (L)ATH4.15554

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ATH +4
CLE +4
123456789
largest lead: ATH 2 · CLE 4lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CLE 50%, ATH 50% · Updated May 1

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
CLE 4.2 – 4.2 ATH
Expected total
8.4
GuardiansThe matchupAthletics
+100Our fair odds−100
4.2Expected runs4.2
+0.04Power rating−0.04
3.8Runs / game4.2
4.1Allowed / game4.4
7.4Hits / game8.4
0.97Home runs / game1.03
3.8Walks drawn / game3.7
16−16Season record17−14
4−6Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CLE chance · ATH chance
Our model fair49.9%50.1%
Kalshi53.7%50.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CLECleveland Guardians+10050%−11653.7%———
ATHAthletics−10050%−10350.7%———
Spreadabout even
CLECleveland Guardians−0.1our margin————
ATHAthletics+0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.4
Over8.4our total————
Under8.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Cleveland Guardians by 12 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 11 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 10 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 9 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 8 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 7 runs: 2%Cleveland Guardians by 6 runs: 3%Cleveland Guardians by 5 runs: 4%Cleveland Guardians by 4 runs: 6%Cleveland Guardians by 3 runs: 7%Cleveland Guardians by 2 runs: 10%Cleveland Guardians by 1 run: 14%Athletics by 1 run: 16%Athletics by 2 runs: 10%Athletics by 3 runs: 7%Athletics by 4 runs: 5%Athletics by 5 runs: 4%Athletics by 6 runs: 3%Athletics by 7 runs: 2%Athletics by 8 runs: 1%Athletics by 9 runs: 1%Athletics by 10 runs: 1%Athletics by 11 runs: <1%Athletics by 12 runs: <1%
← CLE wins byATH wins by →
Cleveland Guardians wins by 2 or more36%
Cleveland Guardians wins by 3 or more26%
Athletics wins by 2 or more34%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.4 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.565%
Total over 8.545%
Total over 10.528%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CLEJoey Cantillo SP · last 3 starts: 15.2 IP, 3.45 ERA, 14 Kstarted
ATHJ.T. Ginn SP · last 3 starts: 14.0 IP, 3.21 ERA, 11 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CLE·ATH
Apr 29 vs TB
last game
Apr 30 vs KC
1 day
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
road after a home game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 31+ games
CLE·ATH
+0.04
rating (0 = average)
−0.04
3.8
runs / game
4.2
4.1
runs allowed / game
4.4
16−16
season record
17−14
9−7
home record
7−6
7−9
away record
10−8
W1
streak
W2
4−6
last 10
6−4
7.4
hits / game
8.4
0.97
home runs / game
1.03
3.8
walks drawn / game
3.7
7.8
batter strikeouts / game
8.8
9.3
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.0
0.44
errors / game
0.19

Rating Trend

CLE · ATH · 37 days
Cleveland GuardiansAthletics
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ATH 3−7
Jul 20, 2025at CLECLE 8 − 2
Jul 19, 2025at CLEATH 8 − 2
Jul 18, 2025at CLECLE 8 − 6
Jun 22, 2025at ATHCLE 3 − 0
Jun 21, 2025at ATHCLE 4 − 2
Jun 20, 2025at ATHATH 5 − 1
Apr 21, 2024at CLECLE 6 − 2
Apr 20, 2024at CLECLE 6 − 3
Apr 19, 2024at CLECLE 10 − 2
Mar 31, 2024at ATHATH 4 − 3

CLE · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Apr 29vs TB3 − 1W
Apr 28vs TB0 − 1L
Apr 27vs TB2 − 3L
Apr 26at TOR2 − 4L
Apr 25at TOR3 − 5L
Apr 24at TOR8 − 6W
Apr 22vs HOU0 − 2L
Apr 21vs HOU8 − 5W
Apr 20vs HOU2 − 9L
Apr 19vs BAL8 − 4W

ATH · Last 10

6−4 · streak W2
Apr 30vs KC6 − 3W
Apr 29vs KC5 − 2W
Apr 28vs KC1 − 4L
Apr 26at TEX2 − 1W
Apr 25at TEX3 − 4L
Apr 24at TEX8 − 1W
Apr 22at SEA4 − 5L
Apr 21at SEA5 − 2W
Apr 20at SEA6 − 4W
Apr 19vs CHW4 − 7L