bayesRatings

Rays at Guardians

MLB · Wednesday, Apr 29 · 12:10 PM CT · Progressive Field · Final TB 1 – CLE 3
← MLB / Apr 29

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
TB000000100161
CLE00102000391
Team box
TB·CLE
6
hits
9
0
home runs
0
0
walks
2
12
strikeouts
7
138
pitches thrown
112
1
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Chase DeLauterCLE2-3002
Brayan RocchioCLE3-4200
Daniel SchneemannCLE2-4000
Yandy DiazTB2-4100
Chandler SimpsonTB2-4000
Jose RamirezCLE1-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Drew Rasmussen (L)TB5.06216
Gavin Williams (W)CLE7.25009
Cade Smith (S)CLE1.01002

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CLE +3
TB +3
123456789
largest lead: CLE 3 · TB 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TB 48%, CLE 52% · Updated Apr 29

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
CLE 3.9 – 3.6 TB
Expected total
7.6
RaysThe matchupGuardians
+108Our fair odds−108
3.6Expected runs3.9
+0.04Power rating+0.04
4.7Runs / game3.9
4.7Allowed / game4.2
8.6Hits / game7.4
0.93Home runs / game1.00
3.6Walks drawn / game3.9
18−11Season record15−16
7−3Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TB chance · CLE chance
Our model fair48.0%52.0%
Kalshi50.7%53.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TBTampa Bay Rays+10848%−10350.7%———
CLECleveland Guardians−10852%−11653.7%———
Spreadabout even
TBTampa Bay Rays+0.3our margin————
CLECleveland Guardians−0.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 7.6
Over7.6our total————
Under7.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Tampa Bay Rays by 12 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 11 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 10 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 9 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 8 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 7 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 6 runs: 2%Tampa Bay Rays by 5 runs: 3%Tampa Bay Rays by 4 runs: 5%Tampa Bay Rays by 3 runs: 7%Tampa Bay Rays by 2 runs: 10%Tampa Bay Rays by 1 run: 17%Cleveland Guardians by 1 run: 15%Cleveland Guardians by 2 runs: 11%Cleveland Guardians by 3 runs: 8%Cleveland Guardians by 4 runs: 6%Cleveland Guardians by 5 runs: 4%Cleveland Guardians by 6 runs: 3%Cleveland Guardians by 7 runs: 2%Cleveland Guardians by 8 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 9 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 10 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 11 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 12 runs: <1%
← TB wins byCLE wins by →
Cleveland Guardians wins by 2 or more37%
Cleveland Guardians wins by 3 or more26%
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 2 or more31%
Decided by one run31%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

7.6 expected
1 runs: 3%2 runs: 3%3 runs: 9%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 13%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 6%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: <1%20 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 5.566%
Total over 7.545%
Total over 9.527%
Total from 6 to 939%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
TBDrew Rasmussen SP · last 3 starts: 15.2 IP, 2.87 ERA, 16 Kstarted
CLEGavin Williams SP · last 3 starts: 18.0 IP, 4.50 ERA, 19 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TB·CLE
Apr 28 at CLE
last game
Apr 28 vs TB
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
3rd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 29+ games
TB·CLE
+0.04
rating (0 = average)
+0.04
4.7
runs / game
3.9
4.7
runs allowed / game
4.2
18−11
season record
15−16
8−4
home record
8−7
10−7
away record
7−9
W6
streak
L4
7−3
last 10
4−6
8.6
hits / game
7.4
0.93
home runs / game
1.00
3.6
walks drawn / game
3.9
7.2
batter strikeouts / game
7.8
8.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.2
0.83
errors / game
0.42

Rating Trend

TB · CLE · 35 days
Tampa Bay RaysCleveland Guardians
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CLE 6−4
Apr 28at CLETB 1 − 0
Apr 27at CLETB 3 − 2
Sep 7, 2025at TBCLE 2 − 1
Sep 6, 2025at TBCLE 3 − 2
Sep 5, 2025at TBCLE 7 − 1
Sep 4, 2025at TBTB 4 − 2
Aug 27, 2025at CLECLE 4 − 3
Aug 26, 2025at CLECLE 3 − 0
Aug 25, 2025at CLETB 9 − 0
Sep 15, 2024at CLECLE 2 − 0

TB · Last 10

7−3 · streak W6
Apr 28at CLE1 − 0W
Apr 27at CLE3 − 2W
Apr 26vs MIN4 − 2W
Apr 25vs MIN6 − 1W
Apr 24vs MIN6 − 2W
Apr 22vs CIN6 − 1W
Apr 21vs CIN6 − 12L
Apr 20vs CIN1 − 6L
Apr 19at PIT3 − 6L
Apr 18at PIT8 − 7W

CLE · Last 10

4−6 · streak L4
Apr 28vs TB0 − 1L
Apr 27vs TB2 − 3L
Apr 26at TOR2 − 4L
Apr 25at TOR3 − 5L
Apr 24at TOR8 − 6W
Apr 22vs HOU0 − 2L
Apr 21vs HOU8 − 5W
Apr 20vs HOU2 − 9L
Apr 19vs BAL8 − 4W
Apr 18vs BAL4 − 2W