bayesRatings

Twins at Rays

MLB · Sunday, Apr 26 · 12:40 PM CT · Tropicana Field · Final MIN 2 – TB 4
← MLB / Apr 26

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
MIN000000200251
TB00400000491
Team box
MIN·TB
5
hits
9
1
home runs
1
4
walks
4
6
strikeouts
4
124
pitches thrown
145
1
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Brooks LeeMIN1-3112
Yandy DiazTB1-3112
Jonathan ArandaTB1-4102
Chandler SimpsonTB3-4100
Kody ClemensMIN1-4000
Ryan JeffersMIN1-3000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Simeon Woods Richardson (L)MIN4.18432
Griffin JaxTB2.11012
Jesse Scholtens (W)TB4.13231
Bryan Baker (S)TB1.00001

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TB +4
MIN +4
123456789
largest lead: TB 4 · MIN 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIN 45%, TB 55% · Updated Apr 26

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
TB 4.7 – 4.2 MIN
Expected total
8.9
TwinsThe matchupRays
+123Our fair odds−123
4.2Expected runs4.7
−0.11Power rating+0.02
4.8Runs / game4.9
4.7Allowed / game5.0
7.6Hits / game8.8
1.19Home runs / game0.96
4.3Walks drawn / game3.5
12−15Season record15−11
2−8Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIN chance · TB chance
Our model fair44.8%55.2%
Kalshi45.7%58.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MINMinnesota Twins+12345%+11945.7%———
TBTampa Bay Rays−12355%−14258.7%———
Spreadabout even
MINMinnesota Twins+0.4our margin————
TBTampa Bay Rays−0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.9
Over8.9our total————
Under8.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Minnesota Twins by 13 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 12 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 11 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 10 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 9 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 8 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 7 runs: 2%Minnesota Twins by 6 runs: 3%Minnesota Twins by 5 runs: 4%Minnesota Twins by 4 runs: 5%Minnesota Twins by 3 runs: 7%Minnesota Twins by 2 runs: 9%Minnesota Twins by 1 run: 12%Tampa Bay Rays by 1 run: 16%Tampa Bay Rays by 2 runs: 10%Tampa Bay Rays by 3 runs: 7%Tampa Bay Rays by 4 runs: 6%Tampa Bay Rays by 5 runs: 5%Tampa Bay Rays by 6 runs: 3%Tampa Bay Rays by 7 runs: 2%Tampa Bay Rays by 8 runs: 2%Tampa Bay Rays by 9 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 10 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 11 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 12 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 13 runs: <1%
← MIN wins byTB wins by →
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 2 or more39%
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 3 or more29%
Minnesota Twins wins by 2 or more33%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.9 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.569%
Total over 8.549%
Total over 10.532%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
MINSimeon Woods Richardson SP · last 3 starts: 14.0 IP, 9.00 ERA, 7 Kstarted
TBGriffin Jax SP · last 3 starts: 7.0 IP, 0.00 ERA, 5 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIN·TB
Apr 25 at TB
last game
Apr 25 vs MIN
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
6th straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 26+ games
MIN·TB
−0.11
rating (0 = average)
+0.02
4.8
runs / game
4.9
4.7
runs allowed / game
5.0
12−15
season record
15−11
7−6
home record
7−4
5−9
away record
8−7
L4
streak
W3
2−8
last 10
6−4
7.6
hits / game
8.8
1.19
home runs / game
0.96
4.3
walks drawn / game
3.5
9.0
batter strikeouts / game
7.2
8.1
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.2
0.56
errors / game
0.88

Rating Trend

MIN · TB · 32 days
Minnesota TwinsTampa Bay Rays
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TB 6−4
Apr 25at TBTB 6 − 1
Apr 24at TBTB 6 − 2
Apr 5at MINTB 4 − 1
Apr 4at MINTB 7 − 1
Apr 3at MINMIN 10 − 4
Jul 6, 2025at MINTB 7 − 5
Jul 5, 2025at MINMIN 6 − 5
Jul 4, 2025at MINMIN 4 − 3
May 28, 2025at TBTB 5 − 0
May 27, 2025at TBMIN 4 − 2

MIN · Last 10

2−8 · streak L4
Apr 25at TB1 − 6L
Apr 24at TB2 − 6L
Apr 23at NYM8 − 10L
Apr 22at NYM2 − 3L
Apr 21at NYM5 − 3W
Apr 19vs CIN4 − 7L
Apr 18vs CIN4 − 5L
Apr 17vs CIN1 − 2L
Apr 15vs BOS5 − 9L
Apr 14vs BOS6 − 0W

TB · Last 10

6−4 · streak W3
Apr 25vs MIN6 − 1W
Apr 24vs MIN6 − 2W
Apr 22vs CIN6 − 1W
Apr 21vs CIN6 − 12L
Apr 20vs CIN1 − 6L
Apr 19at PIT3 − 6L
Apr 18at PIT8 − 7W
Apr 17at PIT1 − 5L
Apr 16at CHW5 − 3W
Apr 15at CHW8 − 3W