bayesRatings

Twins at Mets

MLB · Wednesday, Apr 22 · 6:10 PM CT · Citi Field · Final MIN 2 – NYM 3
← MLB / Apr 22

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
MIN000101000271
NYM10010001380
Team box
MIN·NYM
7
hits
8
1
home runs
0
3
walks
5
7
strikeouts
8
157
pitches thrown
134
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Byron BuxtonMIN1-5111
Francisco LindorNYM2-2101
Mark VientosNYM1-3001
Francisco AlvarezNYM1-3001
Josh BellMIN1-4000
Victor CaratiniMIN0-2001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Connor PrielippMIN4.04206
Taylor Rogers (L)MIN0.21110
Clay HolmesNYM7.05213
Luke Weaver (W)NYM1.11013

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NYM +3
MIN +3
123456789
largest lead: NYM 1 · MIN 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIN 47%, NYM 53% · Updated Apr 22

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
NYM 4.6 – 4.5 MIN
Expected total
9.1
TwinsThe matchupMets
+112Our fair odds−112
4.5Expected runs4.6
−0.07Power rating−0.03
5.1Runs / game3.3
4.5Allowed / game4.4
7.5Hits / game7.5
1.17Home runs / game0.74
4.4Walks drawn / game2.9
12−11Season record7−16
5−5Last 100−10

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIN chance · NYM chance
Our model fair47.1%52.9%
Kalshi43.7%61.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MINMinnesota Twins+11247%+12943.7%———
NYMNew York Mets−11253%−16161.7%———
Spreadabout even
MINMinnesota Twins+0.1our margin————
NYMNew York Mets−0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.1
Over9.1our total————
Under9.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Minnesota Twins by 13 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 12 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 11 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 10 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 9 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 8 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 7 runs: 2%Minnesota Twins by 6 runs: 3%Minnesota Twins by 5 runs: 4%Minnesota Twins by 4 runs: 5%Minnesota Twins by 3 runs: 7%Minnesota Twins by 2 runs: 10%Minnesota Twins by 1 run: 11%New York Mets by 1 run: 16%New York Mets by 2 runs: 10%New York Mets by 3 runs: 7%New York Mets by 4 runs: 6%New York Mets by 5 runs: 4%New York Mets by 6 runs: 3%New York Mets by 7 runs: 2%New York Mets by 8 runs: 2%New York Mets by 9 runs: 1%New York Mets by 10 runs: 1%New York Mets by 11 runs: <1%New York Mets by 12 runs: <1%New York Mets by 13 runs: <1%
← MIN wins byNYM wins by →
New York Mets wins by 2 or more37%
New York Mets wins by 3 or more27%
Minnesota Twins wins by 2 or more36%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.1 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.559%
Total over 9.541%
Total over 11.526%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
MINConnor Prielipp SP · no recent starts on recordstarted
NYMClay Holmes SP · last 3 starts: 17.1 IP, 1.56 ERA, 11 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIN·NYM
Apr 21 at NYM
last game
Apr 21 vs MIN
0 days
days of rest
0 days
5
games in last 7 days
5
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 23+ games
MIN·NYM
−0.07
rating (0 = average)
−0.03
5.1
runs / game
3.3
4.5
runs allowed / game
4.4
12−11
season record
7−16
7−6
home record
3−7
5−5
away record
4−9
W1
streak
L12
5−5
last 10
0−10
7.5
hits / game
7.5
1.17
home runs / game
0.74
4.4
walks drawn / game
2.9
9.0
batter strikeouts / game
8.1
8.3
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.9
0.61
errors / game
0.48

Rating Trend

MIN · NYM · 28 days
Minnesota TwinsNew York Mets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · NYM 4−6
Apr 21at NYMMIN 5 − 3
Apr 16, 2025at MINMIN 4 − 3
Apr 15, 2025at MINMIN 6 − 3
Apr 14, 2025at MINNYM 5 − 1
Jul 31, 2024at NYMMIN 8 − 3
Jul 30, 2024at NYMNYM 2 − 0
Jul 29, 2024at NYMNYM 15 − 2
Sep 10, 2023at MINNYM 2 − 0
Sep 9, 2023at MINMIN 8 − 4
Sep 8, 2023at MINMIN 5 − 2

MIN · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Apr 21at NYM5 − 3W
Apr 19vs CIN4 − 7L
Apr 18vs CIN4 − 5L
Apr 17vs CIN1 − 2L
Apr 15vs BOS5 − 9L
Apr 14vs BOS6 − 0W
Apr 13vs BOS13 − 6W
Apr 12at TOR8 − 2W
Apr 11at TOR7 − 4W
Apr 10at TOR4 − 10L

NYM · Last 10

0−10 · streak L10
Apr 21vs MIN3 − 5L
Apr 19at CHC1 − 2L
Apr 18at CHC2 − 4L
Apr 17at CHC4 − 12L
Apr 15at LAD2 − 8L
Apr 14at LAD1 − 2L
Apr 13at LAD0 − 4L
Apr 12vs ATH0 − 1L
Apr 11vs ATH6 − 11L
Apr 10vs ATH0 − 4L