bayesRatings

Twins at Mets

MLB · Tuesday, Apr 21 · 6:10 PM CT · Citi Field · Final MIN 5 – NYM 3
← MLB / Apr 21

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
MIN000002102560
NYM003000000340
Team box
MIN·NYM
6
hits
4
1
home runs
1
3
walks
3
15
strikeouts
8
153
pitches thrown
148
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Francisco LindorNYM1-3113
Byron BuxtonMIN1-5112
Luke KeaschallMIN2-4002
Matt WallnerMIN1-3101
Trevor LarnachMIN1-4000
Kody ClemensMIN1-3100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Simeon Woods RichardsonMIN5.04332
Cole Sands (W)MIN2.00003
Nolan McLeanNYM6.253010
Devin Williams (L)NYM0.01230

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NYM +3
MIN +3
123456789
largest lead: NYM 3 · MIN 2lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIN 46%, NYM 54% · Updated Apr 21

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
NYM 4.6 – 4.5 MIN
Expected total
9.1
TwinsThe matchupMets
+115Our fair odds−115
4.5Expected runs4.6
−0.08Power rating−0.02
5.1Runs / game3.3
4.5Allowed / game4.4
7.5Hits / game7.7
1.18Home runs / game0.73
4.5Walks drawn / game2.9
11−11Season record7−15
5−5Last 100−10

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIN chance · NYM chance
Our model fair46.5%53.5%
Kalshi42.7%61.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MINMinnesota Twins+11546%+13442.7%———
NYMNew York Mets−11554%−16161.7%———
Spreadabout even
MINMinnesota Twins+0.2our margin————
NYMNew York Mets−0.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.1
Over9.1our total————
Under9.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Minnesota Twins by 13 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 12 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 11 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 10 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 9 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 8 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 7 runs: 2%Minnesota Twins by 6 runs: 3%Minnesota Twins by 5 runs: 4%Minnesota Twins by 4 runs: 5%Minnesota Twins by 3 runs: 7%Minnesota Twins by 2 runs: 9%Minnesota Twins by 1 run: 12%New York Mets by 1 run: 16%New York Mets by 2 runs: 10%New York Mets by 3 runs: 7%New York Mets by 4 runs: 6%New York Mets by 5 runs: 4%New York Mets by 6 runs: 3%New York Mets by 7 runs: 2%New York Mets by 8 runs: 2%New York Mets by 9 runs: 1%New York Mets by 10 runs: 1%New York Mets by 11 runs: 1%New York Mets by 12 runs: <1%New York Mets by 13 runs: <1%
← MIN wins byNYM wins by →
New York Mets wins by 2 or more38%
New York Mets wins by 3 or more28%
Minnesota Twins wins by 2 or more35%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.1 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.559%
Total over 9.541%
Total over 11.526%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
MINSimeon Woods Richardson SP · last 3 starts: 15.2 IP, 6.89 ERA, 9 Kstarted
NYMNolan McLean SP · last 3 starts: 18.2 IP, 1.93 ERA, 20 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIN·NYM
Apr 19 vs CIN
last game
Apr 19 at CHC
1 day
days of rest
1 day
5
games in last 7 days
5
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 22+ games
MIN·NYM
−0.08
rating (0 = average)
−0.02
5.1
runs / game
3.3
4.5
runs allowed / game
4.4
11−11
season record
7−15
7−6
home record
3−6
4−5
away record
4−9
L4
streak
L11
5−5
last 10
0−10
7.5
hits / game
7.7
1.18
home runs / game
0.73
4.5
walks drawn / game
2.9
8.8
batter strikeouts / game
8.1
8.3
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.6
0.64
errors / game
0.50

Rating Trend

MIN · NYM · 27 days
Minnesota TwinsNew York Mets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · NYM 4−5
Apr 16, 2025at MINMIN 4 − 3
Apr 15, 2025at MINMIN 6 − 3
Apr 14, 2025at MINNYM 5 − 1
Jul 31, 2024at NYMMIN 8 − 3
Jul 30, 2024at NYMNYM 2 − 0
Jul 29, 2024at NYMNYM 15 − 2
Sep 10, 2023at MINNYM 2 − 0
Sep 9, 2023at MINMIN 8 − 4
Sep 8, 2023at MINMIN 5 − 2

MIN · Last 10

5−5 · streak L4
Apr 19vs CIN4 − 7L
Apr 18vs CIN4 − 5L
Apr 17vs CIN1 − 2L
Apr 15vs BOS5 − 9L
Apr 14vs BOS6 − 0W
Apr 13vs BOS13 − 6W
Apr 12at TOR8 − 2W
Apr 11at TOR7 − 4W
Apr 10at TOR4 − 10L
Apr 9vs DET3 − 1W

NYM · Last 10

0−10 · streak L10
Apr 19at CHC1 − 2L
Apr 18at CHC2 − 4L
Apr 17at CHC4 − 12L
Apr 15at LAD2 − 8L
Apr 14at LAD1 − 2L
Apr 13at LAD0 − 4L
Apr 12vs ATH0 − 1L
Apr 11vs ATH6 − 11L
Apr 10vs ATH0 − 4L
Apr 9vs ARI1 − 7L