bayesRatings

Twins at Rays

MLB · Saturday, Apr 25 · 3:10 PM CT · Tropicana Field · Final MIN 1 – TB 6
← MLB / Apr 25

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
MIN000000001150
TB00020031683
Team box
MIN·TB
5
hits
8
0
home runs
1
2
walks
3
11
strikeouts
6
125
pitches thrown
146
0
errors
3
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Ben WilliamsonTB3-4102
Jake FraleyTB1-2112
Byron BuxtonMIN2-4000
Royce LewisMIN1-4001
Nick FortesTB1-3001
Ryan JeffersMIN1-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Bailey Ober (L)MIN6.03223
Shane McClanahan (W)TB5.03027

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TB +6
MIN +6
123456789
largest lead: TB 6 · MIN 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIN 45%, TB 55% · Updated Apr 25

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
TB 4.6 – 4.4 MIN
Expected total
9.0
TwinsThe matchupRays
+120Our fair odds−120
4.4Expected runs4.6
−0.10Power rating+0.01
5.0Runs / game4.9
4.7Allowed / game5.2
7.7Hits / game8.8
1.23Home runs / game0.96
4.3Walks drawn / game3.5
12−14Season record14−11
3−7Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIN chance · TB chance
Our model fair45.4%54.6%
Kalshi46.7%57.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 3:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MINMinnesota Twins+12045%+11446.7%———
TBTampa Bay Rays−12055%−13757.7%———
Spreadabout even
MINMinnesota Twins+0.2our margin————
TBTampa Bay Rays−0.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.0
Over9.0our total————
Under9.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Minnesota Twins by 13 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 12 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 11 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 10 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 9 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 8 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 7 runs: 2%Minnesota Twins by 6 runs: 3%Minnesota Twins by 5 runs: 4%Minnesota Twins by 4 runs: 5%Minnesota Twins by 3 runs: 7%Minnesota Twins by 2 runs: 10%Minnesota Twins by 1 run: 11%Tampa Bay Rays by 1 run: 17%Tampa Bay Rays by 2 runs: 10%Tampa Bay Rays by 3 runs: 7%Tampa Bay Rays by 4 runs: 6%Tampa Bay Rays by 5 runs: 4%Tampa Bay Rays by 6 runs: 3%Tampa Bay Rays by 7 runs: 2%Tampa Bay Rays by 8 runs: 2%Tampa Bay Rays by 9 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 10 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 11 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 12 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 13 runs: <1%
← MIN wins byTB wins by →
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 2 or more37%
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 3 or more27%
Minnesota Twins wins by 2 or more35%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.0 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.558%
Total over 9.540%
Total over 11.525%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
MINBailey Ober SP · last 3 starts: 18.0 IP, 3.00 ERA, 19 Kstarted
TBShane McClanahan SP · last 3 starts: 13.1 IP, 5.40 ERA, 14 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIN·TB
Apr 24 at TB
last game
Apr 24 vs MIN
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
5th straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 25+ games
MIN·TB
−0.10
rating (0 = average)
+0.01
5.0
runs / game
4.9
4.7
runs allowed / game
5.2
12−14
season record
14−11
7−6
home record
6−4
5−8
away record
8−7
L3
streak
W2
3−7
last 10
6−4
7.7
hits / game
8.8
1.23
home runs / game
0.96
4.3
walks drawn / game
3.5
8.9
batter strikeouts / game
7.2
8.2
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.1
0.58
errors / game
0.80

Rating Trend

MIN · TB · 31 days
Minnesota TwinsTampa Bay Rays
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TB 6−4
Apr 24at TBTB 6 − 2
Apr 5at MINTB 4 − 1
Apr 4at MINTB 7 − 1
Apr 3at MINMIN 10 − 4
Jul 6, 2025at MINTB 7 − 5
Jul 5, 2025at MINMIN 6 − 5
Jul 4, 2025at MINMIN 4 − 3
May 28, 2025at TBTB 5 − 0
May 27, 2025at TBMIN 4 − 2
May 26, 2025at TBTB 7 − 2

MIN · Last 10

3−7 · streak L3
Apr 24at TB2 − 6L
Apr 23at NYM8 − 10L
Apr 22at NYM2 − 3L
Apr 21at NYM5 − 3W
Apr 19vs CIN4 − 7L
Apr 18vs CIN4 − 5L
Apr 17vs CIN1 − 2L
Apr 15vs BOS5 − 9L
Apr 14vs BOS6 − 0W
Apr 13vs BOS13 − 6W

TB · Last 10

6−4 · streak W2
Apr 24vs MIN6 − 2W
Apr 22vs CIN6 − 1W
Apr 21vs CIN6 − 12L
Apr 20vs CIN1 − 6L
Apr 19at PIT3 − 6L
Apr 18at PIT8 − 7W
Apr 17at PIT1 − 5L
Apr 16at CHW5 − 3W
Apr 15at CHW8 − 3W
Apr 14at CHW8 − 5W