bayesRatings

Twins at Mets

MLB · Thursday, Apr 23 · 6:10 PM CT · Citi Field · Final MIN 8 – NYM 10
← MLB / Apr 23

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
MIN1001010418120
NYM3301000310101
Team box
MIN·NYM
12
hits
10
2
home runs
2
7
walks
3
9
strikeouts
9
138
pitches thrown
179
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Ryan JeffersMIN1-3114
Brett BatyNYM2-4213
Bo BichetteNYM3-5203
Tristan GrayMIN2-5112
Carson BengeNYM2-3211
Austin MartinMIN3-4001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Joe RyanMIN5.07425
Andrew Morris (L)MIN2.22204
Christian ScottNYM1.10151
Devin Williams (W)NYM0.23102

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NYM +5
MIN +5
123456789
largest lead: NYM 5 · MIN 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIN 47%, NYM 53% · Updated Apr 23

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
NYM 4.6 – 4.4 MIN
Expected total
9.0
TwinsThe matchupMets
+115Our fair odds−115
4.4Expected runs4.6
−0.08Power rating−0.03
5.0Runs / game3.2
4.4Allowed / game4.3
7.5Hits / game7.5
1.17Home runs / game0.71
4.3Walks drawn / game3.0
12−12Season record8−16
5−5Last 101−9

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIN chance · NYM chance
Our model fair46.6%53.4%
Kalshi50.7%53.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MINMinnesota Twins+11547%−10350.7%———
NYMNew York Mets−11553%−11653.7%———
Spreadabout even
MINMinnesota Twins+0.2our margin————
NYMNew York Mets−0.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.0
Over9.0our total————
Under9.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Minnesota Twins by 13 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 12 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 11 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 10 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 9 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 8 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 7 runs: 2%Minnesota Twins by 6 runs: 3%Minnesota Twins by 5 runs: 4%Minnesota Twins by 4 runs: 5%Minnesota Twins by 3 runs: 7%Minnesota Twins by 2 runs: 10%Minnesota Twins by 1 run: 12%New York Mets by 1 run: 16%New York Mets by 2 runs: 10%New York Mets by 3 runs: 7%New York Mets by 4 runs: 6%New York Mets by 5 runs: 4%New York Mets by 6 runs: 3%New York Mets by 7 runs: 2%New York Mets by 8 runs: 2%New York Mets by 9 runs: 1%New York Mets by 10 runs: 1%New York Mets by 11 runs: 1%New York Mets by 12 runs: <1%New York Mets by 13 runs: <1%
← MIN wins byNYM wins by →
New York Mets wins by 2 or more37%
New York Mets wins by 3 or more28%
Minnesota Twins wins by 2 or more35%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.0 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.558%
Total over 9.540%
Total over 11.525%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
MINJoe Ryan SP · last 3 starts: 18.0 IP, 2.50 ERA, 18 Kstarted
NYMChristian Scott SP · last 3 starts: 14.0 IP, 5.14 ERA, 12 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIN·NYM
Apr 22 at NYM
last game
Apr 22 vs MIN
0 days
days of rest
0 days
5
games in last 7 days
5
3rd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 24+ games
MIN·NYM
−0.08
rating (0 = average)
−0.03
5.0
runs / game
3.2
4.4
runs allowed / game
4.3
12−12
season record
8−16
7−6
home record
4−7
5−6
away record
4−9
L1
streak
W1
5−5
last 10
1−9
7.5
hits / game
7.5
1.17
home runs / game
0.71
4.3
walks drawn / game
3.0
9.0
batter strikeouts / game
8.1
8.3
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.8
0.62
errors / game
0.46

Rating Trend

MIN · NYM · 29 days
Minnesota TwinsNew York Mets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · NYM 5−5
Apr 22at NYMNYM 3 − 2
Apr 21at NYMMIN 5 − 3
Apr 16, 2025at MINMIN 4 − 3
Apr 15, 2025at MINMIN 6 − 3
Apr 14, 2025at MINNYM 5 − 1
Jul 31, 2024at NYMMIN 8 − 3
Jul 30, 2024at NYMNYM 2 − 0
Jul 29, 2024at NYMNYM 15 − 2
Sep 10, 2023at MINNYM 2 − 0
Sep 9, 2023at MINMIN 8 − 4

MIN · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Apr 22at NYM2 − 3L
Apr 21at NYM5 − 3W
Apr 19vs CIN4 − 7L
Apr 18vs CIN4 − 5L
Apr 17vs CIN1 − 2L
Apr 15vs BOS5 − 9L
Apr 14vs BOS6 − 0W
Apr 13vs BOS13 − 6W
Apr 12at TOR8 − 2W
Apr 11at TOR7 − 4W

NYM · Last 10

1−9 · streak W1
Apr 22vs MIN3 − 2W
Apr 21vs MIN3 − 5L
Apr 19at CHC1 − 2L
Apr 18at CHC2 − 4L
Apr 17at CHC4 − 12L
Apr 15at LAD2 − 8L
Apr 14at LAD1 − 2L
Apr 13at LAD0 − 4L
Apr 12vs ATH0 − 1L
Apr 11vs ATH6 − 11L