bayesRatings

Rays at Guardians

MLB · Tuesday, Apr 28 · 5:10 PM CT · Progressive Field · Final TB 1 – CLE 0
← MLB / Apr 28

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
TB000010000150
CLE000000000041
Team box
TB·CLE
5
hits
4
0
home runs
0
5
walks
4
7
strikeouts
7
106
pitches thrown
151
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Jonathan ArandaTB1-4001
Steven KwanCLE1-3000
Daniel SchneemannCLE1-4000
Angel MartinezCLE1-3000
Chase DeLauterCLE1-4000
Yandy DiazTB1-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Nick Martinez (W)TB7.03014
Cole Sulser (S)TB1.01012
Tanner Bibee (L)CLE5.04136

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CLE +3
TB +3
123456789
largest lead: CLE 0 · TB 1lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TB 48%, CLE 52% · Updated Apr 28

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
CLE 4.0 – 3.7 TB
Expected total
7.7
RaysThe matchupGuardians
+110Our fair odds−110
3.7Expected runs4.0
+0.03Power rating+0.04
4.8Runs / game4.0
4.8Allowed / game4.3
8.8Hits / game7.5
0.96Home runs / game1.03
3.5Walks drawn / game3.9
17−11Season record15−15
6−4Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TB chance · CLE chance
Our model fair47.6%52.4%
Kalshi48.7%56.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TBTampa Bay Rays+11048%+10548.7%———
CLECleveland Guardians−11052%−13156.7%———
Spreadabout even
TBTampa Bay Rays+0.3our margin————
CLECleveland Guardians−0.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 7.7
Over7.7our total————
Under7.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Tampa Bay Rays by 12 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 11 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 10 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 9 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 8 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 7 runs: 2%Tampa Bay Rays by 6 runs: 2%Tampa Bay Rays by 5 runs: 3%Tampa Bay Rays by 4 runs: 5%Tampa Bay Rays by 3 runs: 7%Tampa Bay Rays by 2 runs: 10%Tampa Bay Rays by 1 run: 16%Cleveland Guardians by 1 run: 15%Cleveland Guardians by 2 runs: 11%Cleveland Guardians by 3 runs: 8%Cleveland Guardians by 4 runs: 6%Cleveland Guardians by 5 runs: 4%Cleveland Guardians by 6 runs: 3%Cleveland Guardians by 7 runs: 2%Cleveland Guardians by 8 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 9 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 10 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 11 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 12 runs: <1%
← TB wins byCLE wins by →
Cleveland Guardians wins by 2 or more37%
Cleveland Guardians wins by 3 or more26%
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run31%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

7.7 expected
1 runs: 3%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 9%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 13%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: <1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 5.567%
Total over 7.546%
Total over 9.528%
Total from 6 to 939%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
TBNick Martinez SP · last 3 starts: 18.0 IP, 2.00 ERA, 13 Kstarted
CLETanner Bibee SP · last 3 starts: 16.2 IP, 5.40 ERA, 12 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TB·CLE
Apr 27 at CLE
last game
Apr 27 vs TB
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 28+ games
TB·CLE
+0.03
rating (0 = average)
+0.04
4.8
runs / game
4.0
4.8
runs allowed / game
4.3
17−11
season record
15−15
8−4
home record
8−6
9−7
away record
7−9
W5
streak
L3
6−4
last 10
4−6
8.8
hits / game
7.5
0.96
home runs / game
1.03
3.5
walks drawn / game
3.9
7.2
batter strikeouts / game
7.8
8.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.3
0.86
errors / game
0.40

Rating Trend

TB · CLE · 34 days
Tampa Bay RaysCleveland Guardians
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CLE 7−3
Apr 27at CLETB 3 − 2
Sep 7, 2025at TBCLE 2 − 1
Sep 6, 2025at TBCLE 3 − 2
Sep 5, 2025at TBCLE 7 − 1
Sep 4, 2025at TBTB 4 − 2
Aug 27, 2025at CLECLE 4 − 3
Aug 26, 2025at CLECLE 3 − 0
Aug 25, 2025at CLETB 9 − 0
Sep 15, 2024at CLECLE 2 − 0
Sep 14, 2024at CLECLE 6 − 1

TB · Last 10

6−4 · streak W5
Apr 27at CLE3 − 2W
Apr 26vs MIN4 − 2W
Apr 25vs MIN6 − 1W
Apr 24vs MIN6 − 2W
Apr 22vs CIN6 − 1W
Apr 21vs CIN6 − 12L
Apr 20vs CIN1 − 6L
Apr 19at PIT3 − 6L
Apr 18at PIT8 − 7W
Apr 17at PIT1 − 5L

CLE · Last 10

4−6 · streak L3
Apr 27vs TB2 − 3L
Apr 26at TOR2 − 4L
Apr 25at TOR3 − 5L
Apr 24at TOR8 − 6W
Apr 22vs HOU0 − 2L
Apr 21vs HOU8 − 5W
Apr 20vs HOU2 − 9L
Apr 19vs BAL8 − 4W
Apr 18vs BAL4 − 2W
Apr 17vs BAL4 − 6L