bayesRatings

Rays at Guardians

MLB · Monday, Apr 27 · 5:10 PM CT · Progressive Field · Final TB 3 – CLE 2
← MLB / Apr 27

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
TB000001020370
CLE000020000260
Team box
TB·CLE
7
hits
6
1
home runs
1
3
walks
2
11
strikeouts
6
136
pitches thrown
154
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Ryan ViladeTB3-4002
Daniel SchneemannCLE1-4112
Jonathan ArandaTB1-4111
Chase DeLauterCLE2-4000
Austin HedgesCLE1-2000
Jose RamirezCLE1-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Steven Matz (W)TB7.04212
Bryan Baker (S)TB1.02002
Parker MessickCLE5.23129
Hunter Gaddis (L)CLE0.13200

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CLE +3
TB +3
123456789
largest lead: CLE 2 · TB 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TB 47%, CLE 53% · Updated Apr 27

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
CLE 4.0 – 3.8 TB
Expected total
7.8
RaysThe matchupGuardians
+112Our fair odds−112
3.8Expected runs4.0
+0.02Power rating+0.05
4.9Runs / game4.1
4.9Allowed / game4.3
8.8Hits / game7.6
0.96Home runs / game1.03
3.5Walks drawn / game3.9
16−11Season record15−14
6−4Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TB chance · CLE chance
Our model fair47.3%52.7%
Kalshi45.7%58.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TBTampa Bay Rays+11247%+11945.7%———
CLECleveland Guardians−11253%−14258.7%———
Spreadabout even
TBTampa Bay Rays+0.3our margin————
CLECleveland Guardians−0.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 7.8
Over7.8our total————
Under7.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Tampa Bay Rays by 12 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 11 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 10 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 9 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 8 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 7 runs: 2%Tampa Bay Rays by 6 runs: 2%Tampa Bay Rays by 5 runs: 4%Tampa Bay Rays by 4 runs: 5%Tampa Bay Rays by 3 runs: 7%Tampa Bay Rays by 2 runs: 10%Tampa Bay Rays by 1 run: 15%Cleveland Guardians by 1 run: 15%Cleveland Guardians by 2 runs: 11%Cleveland Guardians by 3 runs: 8%Cleveland Guardians by 4 runs: 6%Cleveland Guardians by 5 runs: 4%Cleveland Guardians by 6 runs: 3%Cleveland Guardians by 7 runs: 2%Cleveland Guardians by 8 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 9 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 10 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 11 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 12 runs: <1%
← TB wins byCLE wins by →
Cleveland Guardians wins by 2 or more37%
Cleveland Guardians wins by 3 or more27%
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run31%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

7.8 expected
1 runs: 3%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 9%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 13%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: <1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 5.568%
Total over 7.547%
Total over 9.529%
Total from 6 to 939%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
TBSteven Matz RP · last 3 starts: 13.1 IP, 5.40 ERA, 15 Kstarted
CLEParker Messick SP · last 3 starts: 19.2 IP, 2.29 ERA, 18 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TB·CLE
Apr 26 vs MIN
last game
Apr 26 at TOR
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 27+ games
TB·CLE
+0.02
rating (0 = average)
+0.05
4.9
runs / game
4.1
4.9
runs allowed / game
4.3
16−11
season record
15−14
8−4
home record
8−5
8−7
away record
7−9
W4
streak
L2
6−4
last 10
5−5
8.8
hits / game
7.6
0.96
home runs / game
1.03
3.5
walks drawn / game
3.9
7.1
batter strikeouts / game
7.9
8.1
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.2
0.89
errors / game
0.41

Rating Trend

TB · CLE · 33 days
Tampa Bay RaysCleveland Guardians
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CLE 7−3
Sep 7, 2025at TBCLE 2 − 1
Sep 6, 2025at TBCLE 3 − 2
Sep 5, 2025at TBCLE 7 − 1
Sep 4, 2025at TBTB 4 − 2
Aug 27, 2025at CLECLE 4 − 3
Aug 26, 2025at CLECLE 3 − 0
Aug 25, 2025at CLETB 9 − 0
Sep 15, 2024at CLECLE 2 − 0
Sep 14, 2024at CLECLE 6 − 1
Sep 13, 2024at CLETB 3 − 1

TB · Last 10

6−4 · streak W4
Apr 26vs MIN4 − 2W
Apr 25vs MIN6 − 1W
Apr 24vs MIN6 − 2W
Apr 22vs CIN6 − 1W
Apr 21vs CIN6 − 12L
Apr 20vs CIN1 − 6L
Apr 19at PIT3 − 6L
Apr 18at PIT8 − 7W
Apr 17at PIT1 − 5L
Apr 16at CHW5 − 3W

CLE · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
Apr 26at TOR2 − 4L
Apr 25at TOR3 − 5L
Apr 24at TOR8 − 6W
Apr 22vs HOU0 − 2L
Apr 21vs HOU8 − 5W
Apr 20vs HOU2 − 9L
Apr 19vs BAL8 − 4W
Apr 18vs BAL4 − 2W
Apr 17vs BAL4 − 6L
Apr 16vs BAL4 − 2W