bayesRatings

Royals at Athletics

MLB · Tuesday, Apr 28 · 8:40 PM CT · Sutter Health Park · Final KC 4 – ATH 1
← MLB / Apr 28

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team12345678910THE
KC0000010003480
ATH0100000000180
Team box
KC·ATH
8
hits
8
2
home runs
0
3
walks
6
7
strikeouts
11
192
pitches thrown
153
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Bobby Witt Jr.KC1-5113
Salvador PerezKC2-5111
Shea LangeliersATH3-5000
Zack GelofATH2-4100
Jacob WilsonATH1-5001
Maikel GarciaKC2-5000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Kris BubicKC5.04146
Nick Mears (W)KC1.00002
Lucas Erceg (S)KC1.01011
Aaron CivaleATH5.05013
Justin Sterner (L)ATH1.02200

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ATH +3
KC +3
12345678910
largest lead: ATH 1 · KC 3lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was KC 48%, ATH 52% · Updated Apr 28

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
KC 4.5 – 4.4 ATH
Expected total
8.9
RoyalsThe matchupAthletics
+107Our fair odds−107
4.5Expected runs4.4
−0.03Power rating−0.04
4.2Runs / game4.2
4.9Allowed / game4.5
7.9Hits / game8.2
0.96Home runs / game1.11
3.7Walks drawn / game3.6
11−17Season record15−13
4−6Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
KC chance · ATH chance
Our model fair48.3%51.7%
Kalshi52.7%51.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
KCKansas City Royals+10748%−11252.7%———
ATHAthletics−10752%−10751.8%———
Spreadabout even
KCKansas City Royals−0.2our margin————
ATHAthletics+0.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.9
Over8.9our total————
Under8.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Kansas City Royals by 13 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 12 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 11 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 10 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 9 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 8 runs: 2%Kansas City Royals by 7 runs: 2%Kansas City Royals by 6 runs: 3%Kansas City Royals by 5 runs: 4%Kansas City Royals by 4 runs: 6%Kansas City Royals by 3 runs: 7%Kansas City Royals by 2 runs: 10%Kansas City Royals by 1 run: 11%Athletics by 1 run: 17%Athletics by 2 runs: 9%Athletics by 3 runs: 7%Athletics by 4 runs: 5%Athletics by 5 runs: 4%Athletics by 6 runs: 3%Athletics by 7 runs: 2%Athletics by 8 runs: 1%Athletics by 9 runs: 1%Athletics by 10 runs: 1%Athletics by 11 runs: <1%Athletics by 12 runs: <1%Athletics by 13 runs: <1%
← KC wins byATH wins by →
Kansas City Royals wins by 2 or more38%
Kansas City Royals wins by 3 or more28%
Athletics wins by 2 or more34%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.9 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.569%
Total over 8.549%
Total over 10.532%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
KCKris Bubic SP · last 3 starts: 17.2 IP, 4.08 ERA, 17 Kstarted
ATHAaron Civale RP · last 3 starts: 15.2 IP, 4.60 ERA, 12 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
KC·ATH
Apr 26 vs LAA
last game
Apr 26 at TEX
1 day
days of rest
1 day
5
games in last 7 days
5
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 28+ games
KC·ATH
−0.03
rating (0 = average)
−0.04
4.2
runs / game
4.2
4.9
runs allowed / game
4.5
11−17
season record
15−13
9−7
home record
5−5
2−10
away record
10−8
W3
streak
W1
4−6
last 10
5−5
7.9
hits / game
8.2
0.96
home runs / game
1.11
3.7
walks drawn / game
3.6
8.4
batter strikeouts / game
8.9
8.6
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.1
0.25
errors / game
0.21

Rating Trend

KC · ATH · 34 days
Kansas City RoyalsAthletics
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ATH 6−4
Sep 28, 2025at ATHKC 9 − 2
Sep 27, 2025at ATHKC 4 − 2
Sep 26, 2025at ATHATH 4 − 3
Jun 15, 2025at KCATH 3 − 2
Jun 14, 2025at KCATH 4 − 0
Jun 13, 2025at KCATH 6 − 4
Jun 20, 2024at ATHKC 3 − 2
Jun 19, 2024at ATHATH 5 − 1
Jun 18, 2024at ATHATH 7 − 5
May 19, 2024at KCKC 8 − 4

KC · Last 10

4−6 · streak W3
Apr 26vs LAA11 − 9W
Apr 25vs LAA12 − 1W
Apr 24vs LAA6 − 3W
Apr 22vs BAL6 − 8L
Apr 21vs BAL6 − 5W
Apr 20vs BAL5 − 7L
Apr 19at NYY0 − 7L
Apr 18at NYY4 − 13L
Apr 17at NYY2 − 4L
Apr 16at DET9 − 10L

ATH · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Apr 26at TEX2 − 1W
Apr 25at TEX3 − 4L
Apr 24at TEX8 − 1W
Apr 22at SEA4 − 5L
Apr 21at SEA5 − 2W
Apr 20at SEA6 − 4W
Apr 19vs CHW4 − 7L
Apr 18vs CHW7 − 6W
Apr 17vs CHW2 − 9L
Apr 16vs TEX6 − 9L