bayesRatings

Angels at Royals

MLB · Friday, Apr 24 · 6:40 PM CT · Kauffman Stadium · Final LAA 3 – KC 6
← MLB / Apr 24

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
LAA000000300380
KC00050001680
Team box
LAA·KC
8
hits
8
0
home runs
0
6
walks
4
9
strikeouts
10
153
pitches thrown
133
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Isaac CollinsKC2-3102
Elias DiazKC1-3102
Starling MarteKC1-3101
Michael MasseyKC1-4001
Carter JensenKC2-4100
Jo AdellLAA1-5001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Yusei Kikuchi (L)LAA5.05525
Noah Cameron (W)KC6.18336
Lucas Erceg (S)KC1.00012

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
KC +5
LAA +5
123456789
largest lead: KC 5 · LAA 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LAA 46%, KC 54% · Updated Apr 24

Expected margin
KC by 0.6
Expected score
KC 4.5 – 3.9 LAA
Expected total
8.3
AngelsThe matchupRoyals
+117Our fair odds−117
3.9Expected runs4.5
−0.13Power rating−0.06
4.8Runs / game3.5
4.5Allowed / game4.9
7.4Hits / game7.5
1.38Home runs / game0.88
4.6Walks drawn / game3.4
12−14Season record8−17
4−6Last 101−9

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LAA chance · KC chance
Our model fair46.0%54.0%
Kalshi51.7%52.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LAALos Angeles Angels+11746%−10751.8%———
KCKansas City Royals−11754%−11252.7%———
SpreadKC by 0.6
LAALos Angeles Angels+0.6our margin————
KCKansas City Royals−0.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.3
Over8.3our total————
Under8.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Kansas City Royals by 0.6 expected
Los Angeles Angels by 13 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 12 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 11 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 10 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 9 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 8 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 7 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 6 runs: 2%Los Angeles Angels by 5 runs: 3%Los Angeles Angels by 4 runs: 5%Los Angeles Angels by 3 runs: 6%Los Angeles Angels by 2 runs: 9%Los Angeles Angels by 1 run: 16%Kansas City Royals by 1 run: 13%Kansas City Royals by 2 runs: 11%Kansas City Royals by 3 runs: 8%Kansas City Royals by 4 runs: 6%Kansas City Royals by 5 runs: 5%Kansas City Royals by 6 runs: 3%Kansas City Royals by 7 runs: 2%Kansas City Royals by 8 runs: 2%Kansas City Royals by 9 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 10 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 11 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 12 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 13 runs: <1%
← LAA wins byKC wins by →
Kansas City Royals wins by 2 or more41%
Kansas City Royals wins by 3 or more30%
Los Angeles Angels wins by 2 or more30%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.3 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.564%
Total over 8.544%
Total over 10.527%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
LAAYusei Kikuchi SP · last 3 starts: 14.1 IP, 5.02 ERA, 19 Kstarted
KCNoah Cameron SP · last 3 starts: 15.0 IP, 6.60 ERA, 12 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LAA·KC
Apr 22 vs TOR
last game
Apr 22 vs BAL
1 day
days of rest
1 day
6
games in last 7 days
6
road after a home game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 25+ games
LAA·KC
−0.13
rating (0 = average)
−0.06
4.8
runs / game
3.5
4.5
runs allowed / game
4.9
12−14
season record
8−17
5−7
home record
6−7
7−7
away record
2−10
W1
streak
L1
4−6
last 10
1−9
7.4
hits / game
7.5
1.38
home runs / game
0.88
4.6
walks drawn / game
3.4
9.8
batter strikeouts / game
8.5
8.9
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.4
0.58
errors / game
0.28

Rating Trend

LAA · KC · 30 days
Los Angeles AngelsKansas City Royals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · KC 6−4
Sep 25, 2025at LAAKC 9 − 4
Sep 24, 2025at LAALAA 3 − 2
Sep 23, 2025at LAAKC 8 − 4
Sep 4, 2025at KCKC 4 − 3
Sep 3, 2025at KCLAA 4 − 3
Sep 2, 2025at KCLAA 5 − 1
Aug 21, 2024at KCKC 3 − 0
Aug 20, 2024at KCLAA 9 − 5
Aug 19, 2024at KCKC 5 − 3
May 12, 2024at LAAKC 4 − 2

LAA · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Apr 22vs TOR7 − 3W
Apr 21vs TOR2 − 4L
Apr 20vs TOR2 − 5L
Apr 19vs SD1 − 2L
Apr 18vs SD1 − 4L
Apr 17vs SD8 − 0W
Apr 16at NYY11 − 4W
Apr 15at NYY4 − 5L
Apr 14at NYY7 − 1W
Apr 13at NYY10 − 11L

KC · Last 10

1−9 · streak L1
Apr 22vs BAL6 − 8L
Apr 21vs BAL6 − 5W
Apr 20vs BAL5 − 7L
Apr 19at NYY0 − 7L
Apr 18at NYY4 − 13L
Apr 17at NYY2 − 4L
Apr 16at DET9 − 10L
Apr 15at DET1 − 2L
Apr 14at DET1 − 2L
Apr 12vs CHW5 − 6L