bayesRatings

Angels at Royals

MLB · Sunday, Apr 26 · 3:10 PM CT · Kauffman Stadium · Final LAA 9 – KC 11
← MLB / Apr 26

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team12345678910THE
LAA24000010119160
KC000012203311120
Team box
LAA·KC
16
hits
12
1
home runs
4
5
walks
6
8
strikeouts
7
193
pitches thrown
178
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Lane ThomasKC3-6213
Bobby Witt Jr.KC2-5112
Isaac CollinsKC2-4112
Zach NetoLAA3-5202
Jac CaglianoneKC1-2112
Mike TroutLAA1-5112
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Reid DetmersLAA5.05315
Joey Lucchesi (L)LAA0.21211
Seth LugoKC6.114713
Lucas Erceg (W)KC1.00012

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
KC +6
LAA +6
12345678910
largest lead: KC 2 · LAA 6lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LAA 45%, KC 55% · Updated Apr 26

Expected margin
KC by 0.9
Expected score
KC 4.6 – 3.7 LAA
Expected total
8.3
AngelsThe matchupRoyals
+124Our fair odds−124
3.7Expected runs4.6
−0.17Power rating−0.03
4.6Runs / game3.9
4.8Allowed / game4.7
7.4Hits / game7.8
1.32Home runs / game0.85
4.5Walks drawn / game3.6
12−16Season record10−17
3−7Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LAA chance · KC chance
Our model fair44.7%55.3%
Kalshi50.7%54.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 3:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LAALos Angeles Angels+12445%−10350.7%———
KCKansas City Royals−12455%−12154.7%———
SpreadKC by 0.9
LAALos Angeles Angels+0.9our margin————
KCKansas City Royals−0.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.3
Over8.3our total————
Under8.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Kansas City Royals by 0.9 expected
Los Angeles Angels by 14 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 13 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 12 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 11 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 10 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 9 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 8 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 7 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 6 runs: 2%Los Angeles Angels by 5 runs: 3%Los Angeles Angels by 4 runs: 4%Los Angeles Angels by 3 runs: 6%Los Angeles Angels by 2 runs: 9%Los Angeles Angels by 1 run: 17%Kansas City Royals by 1 run: 12%Kansas City Royals by 2 runs: 11%Kansas City Royals by 3 runs: 8%Kansas City Royals by 4 runs: 7%Kansas City Royals by 5 runs: 5%Kansas City Royals by 6 runs: 4%Kansas City Royals by 7 runs: 3%Kansas City Royals by 8 runs: 2%Kansas City Royals by 9 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 10 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 11 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 12 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 13 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 14 runs: <1%
← LAA wins byKC wins by →
Kansas City Royals wins by 2 or more44%
Kansas City Royals wins by 3 or more33%
Los Angeles Angels wins by 2 or more27%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.3 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.564%
Total over 8.544%
Total over 10.527%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
LAAReid Detmers SP · last 3 starts: 17.1 IP, 5.19 ERA, 18 Kstarted
KCSeth Lugo SP · last 3 starts: 20.0 IP, 0.90 ERA, 18 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LAA·KC
Apr 25 at KC
last game
Apr 25 vs LAA
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
3rd straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 27+ games
LAA·KC
−0.17
rating (0 = average)
−0.03
4.6
runs / game
3.9
4.8
runs allowed / game
4.7
12−16
season record
10−17
5−7
home record
8−7
7−9
away record
2−10
L2
streak
W2
3−7
last 10
3−7
7.4
hits / game
7.8
1.32
home runs / game
0.85
4.5
walks drawn / game
3.6
9.9
batter strikeouts / game
8.5
8.9
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.6
0.61
errors / game
0.26

Rating Trend

LAA · KC · 32 days
Los Angeles AngelsKansas City Royals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · KC 6−4
Apr 25at KCKC 12 − 1
Apr 24at KCKC 6 − 3
Sep 25, 2025at LAAKC 9 − 4
Sep 24, 2025at LAALAA 3 − 2
Sep 23, 2025at LAAKC 8 − 4
Sep 4, 2025at KCKC 4 − 3
Sep 3, 2025at KCLAA 4 − 3
Sep 2, 2025at KCLAA 5 − 1
Aug 21, 2024at KCKC 3 − 0
Aug 20, 2024at KCLAA 9 − 5

LAA · Last 10

3−7 · streak L2
Apr 25at KC1 − 12L
Apr 24at KC3 − 6L
Apr 22vs TOR7 − 3W
Apr 21vs TOR2 − 4L
Apr 20vs TOR2 − 5L
Apr 19vs SD1 − 2L
Apr 18vs SD1 − 4L
Apr 17vs SD8 − 0W
Apr 16at NYY11 − 4W
Apr 15at NYY4 − 5L

KC · Last 10

3−7 · streak W2
Apr 25vs LAA12 − 1W
Apr 24vs LAA6 − 3W
Apr 22vs BAL6 − 8L
Apr 21vs BAL6 − 5W
Apr 20vs BAL5 − 7L
Apr 19at NYY0 − 7L
Apr 18at NYY4 − 13L
Apr 17at NYY2 − 4L
Apr 16at DET9 − 10L
Apr 15at DET1 − 2L