bayesRatings

Royals at Athletics

MLB · Wednesday, Apr 29 · 8:40 PM CT · Sutter Health Park · Final KC 2 – ATH 5
← MLB / Apr 29

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
KC100000001261
ATH010301005110
Team box
KC·ATH
6
hits
11
0
home runs
1
4
walks
5
9
strikeouts
7
160
pitches thrown
145
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Lawrence ButlerATH1-4113
Jeff McNeilATH2-3101
Nick KurtzATH2-4001
Carlos CortesATH2-3000
Jacob WilsonATH2-3200
Salvador PerezKC1-4001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Michael Wacha (L)KC5.08445
Luis Severino (W)ATH7.04128
Mark Leiter Jr. (S)ATH0.10011

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ATH +4
KC +4
123456789
largest lead: ATH 4 · KC 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was KC 49%, ATH 51% · Updated Apr 29

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
KC 4.4 – 4.2 ATH
Expected total
8.7
RoyalsThe matchupAthletics
+105Our fair odds−105
4.4Expected runs4.2
−0.02Power rating−0.05
4.2Runs / game4.1
4.7Allowed / game4.5
7.9Hits / game8.2
1.00Home runs / game1.07
3.7Walks drawn / game3.7
12−17Season record15−14
5−5Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
KC chance · ATH chance
Our model fair48.8%51.2%
Kalshi50.7%54.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
KCKansas City Royals+10549%−10350.7%———
ATHAthletics−10551%−12154.7%———
Spreadabout even
KCKansas City Royals−0.2our margin————
ATHAthletics+0.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.7
Over8.7our total————
Under8.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Kansas City Royals by 13 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 12 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 11 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 10 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 9 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 8 runs: 2%Kansas City Royals by 7 runs: 2%Kansas City Royals by 6 runs: 3%Kansas City Royals by 5 runs: 4%Kansas City Royals by 4 runs: 6%Kansas City Royals by 3 runs: 7%Kansas City Royals by 2 runs: 10%Kansas City Royals by 1 run: 11%Athletics by 1 run: 17%Athletics by 2 runs: 10%Athletics by 3 runs: 7%Athletics by 4 runs: 5%Athletics by 5 runs: 4%Athletics by 6 runs: 3%Athletics by 7 runs: 2%Athletics by 8 runs: 1%Athletics by 9 runs: 1%Athletics by 10 runs: 1%Athletics by 11 runs: <1%Athletics by 12 runs: <1%Athletics by 13 runs: <1%
← KC wins byATH wins by →
Kansas City Royals wins by 2 or more38%
Kansas City Royals wins by 3 or more28%
Athletics wins by 2 or more34%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.7 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.567%
Total over 8.547%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
KCMichael Wacha SP · last 3 starts: 19.1 IP, 3.72 ERA, 18 Kstarted
ATHLuis Severino SP · last 3 starts: 18.0 IP, 5.00 ERA, 15 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
KC·ATH
Apr 28 at ATH
last game
Apr 28 vs KC
0 days
days of rest
0 days
5
games in last 7 days
5
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 29+ games
KC·ATH
−0.02
rating (0 = average)
−0.05
4.2
runs / game
4.1
4.7
runs allowed / game
4.5
12−17
season record
15−14
9−7
home record
5−6
3−10
away record
10−8
W4
streak
L1
5−5
last 10
5−5
7.9
hits / game
8.2
1.00
home runs / game
1.07
3.7
walks drawn / game
3.7
8.4
batter strikeouts / game
9.0
8.7
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.0
0.24
errors / game
0.21

Rating Trend

KC · ATH · 35 days
Kansas City RoyalsAthletics
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ATH 6−4
Apr 28at ATHKC 4 − 1
Sep 28, 2025at ATHKC 9 − 2
Sep 27, 2025at ATHKC 4 − 2
Sep 26, 2025at ATHATH 4 − 3
Jun 15, 2025at KCATH 3 − 2
Jun 14, 2025at KCATH 4 − 0
Jun 13, 2025at KCATH 6 − 4
Jun 20, 2024at ATHKC 3 − 2
Jun 19, 2024at ATHATH 5 − 1
Jun 18, 2024at ATHATH 7 − 5

KC · Last 10

5−5 · streak W4
Apr 28at ATH4 − 1W
Apr 26vs LAA11 − 9W
Apr 25vs LAA12 − 1W
Apr 24vs LAA6 − 3W
Apr 22vs BAL6 − 8L
Apr 21vs BAL6 − 5W
Apr 20vs BAL5 − 7L
Apr 19at NYY0 − 7L
Apr 18at NYY4 − 13L
Apr 17at NYY2 − 4L

ATH · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Apr 28vs KC1 − 4L
Apr 26at TEX2 − 1W
Apr 25at TEX3 − 4L
Apr 24at TEX8 − 1W
Apr 22at SEA4 − 5L
Apr 21at SEA5 − 2W
Apr 20at SEA6 − 4W
Apr 19vs CHW4 − 7L
Apr 18vs CHW7 − 6W
Apr 17vs CHW2 − 9L