bayesRatings

Guardians at Athletics

MLB · Sunday, May 3 · 3:05 PM CT · Sutter Health Park · Final CLE 1 – ATH 7
← MLB / May 3

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CLE000010000170
ATH010033007110
Team box
CLE·ATH
7
hits
11
1
home runs
3
3
walks
3
5
strikeouts
9
141
pitches thrown
127
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Tyler SoderstromATH3-4211
Jeff McNeilATH2-4003
Chase DeLauterCLE2-4111
Zack GelofATH1-3211
Colby ThomasATH1-2111
Brent RookerATH1-5001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Parker Messick (L)CLE5.06406
Aaron Civale (W)ATH6.07123

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ATH +7
CLE +7
123456789
largest lead: ATH 7 · CLE 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CLE 51%, ATH 49% · Updated May 3

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
CLE 4.6 – 4.2 ATH
Expected total
8.8
GuardiansThe matchupAthletics
−105Our fair odds+105
4.6Expected runs4.2
+0.07Power rating−0.06
4.3Runs / game4.3
4.2Allowed / game4.8
7.7Hits / game8.5
1.03Home runs / game1.06
4.0Walks drawn / game3.8
18−16Season record17−16
5−5Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CLE chance · ATH chance
Our model fair51.2%48.8%
Kalshi56.7%47.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 3:05 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CLECleveland Guardians−10551%−13156.7%———
ATHAthletics+10549%+10947.7%———
Spreadabout even
CLECleveland Guardians−0.3our margin————
ATHAthletics+0.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.8
Over8.8our total————
Under8.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Cleveland Guardians by 13 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 12 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 11 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 10 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 9 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 8 runs: 2%Cleveland Guardians by 7 runs: 2%Cleveland Guardians by 6 runs: 3%Cleveland Guardians by 5 runs: 4%Cleveland Guardians by 4 runs: 6%Cleveland Guardians by 3 runs: 7%Cleveland Guardians by 2 runs: 10%Cleveland Guardians by 1 run: 13%Athletics by 1 run: 16%Athletics by 2 runs: 9%Athletics by 3 runs: 7%Athletics by 4 runs: 5%Athletics by 5 runs: 4%Athletics by 6 runs: 3%Athletics by 7 runs: 2%Athletics by 8 runs: 1%Athletics by 9 runs: 1%Athletics by 10 runs: 1%Athletics by 11 runs: <1%Athletics by 12 runs: <1%Athletics by 13 runs: <1%
← CLE wins byATH wins by →
Cleveland Guardians wins by 2 or more39%
Cleveland Guardians wins by 3 or more29%
Athletics wins by 2 or more33%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.8 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.568%
Total over 8.548%
Total over 10.531%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CLEParker Messick SP · last 3 starts: 18.2 IP, 2.89 ERA, 22 Kstarted
ATHAaron Civale RP · last 3 starts: 15.0 IP, 4.80 ERA, 12 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CLE·ATH
May 2 at ATH
last game
May 2 vs CLE
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
3rd straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 33+ games
CLE·ATH
+0.07
rating (0 = average)
−0.06
4.3
runs / game
4.3
4.2
runs allowed / game
4.8
18−16
season record
17−16
9−7
home record
7−8
9−9
away record
10−8
W3
streak
L2
5−5
last 10
5−5
7.7
hits / game
8.5
1.03
home runs / game
1.06
4.0
walks drawn / game
3.8
7.8
batter strikeouts / game
8.6
9.1
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.0
0.47
errors / game
0.21

Rating Trend

CLE · ATH · 39 days
Cleveland GuardiansAthletics
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ATH 2−8
May 2at ATHCLE 14 − 6
May 1at ATHCLE 8 − 5
Jul 20, 2025at CLECLE 8 − 2
Jul 19, 2025at CLEATH 8 − 2
Jul 18, 2025at CLECLE 8 − 6
Jun 22, 2025at ATHCLE 3 − 0
Jun 21, 2025at ATHCLE 4 − 2
Jun 20, 2025at ATHATH 5 − 1
Apr 21, 2024at CLECLE 6 − 2
Apr 20, 2024at CLECLE 6 − 3

CLE · Last 10

5−5 · streak W3
May 2at ATH14 − 6W
May 1at ATH8 − 5W
Apr 29vs TB3 − 1W
Apr 28vs TB0 − 1L
Apr 27vs TB2 − 3L
Apr 26at TOR2 − 4L
Apr 25at TOR3 − 5L
Apr 24at TOR8 − 6W
Apr 22vs HOU0 − 2L
Apr 21vs HOU8 − 5W

ATH · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
May 2vs CLE6 − 14L
May 1vs CLE5 − 8L
Apr 30vs KC6 − 3W
Apr 29vs KC5 − 2W
Apr 28vs KC1 − 4L
Apr 26at TEX2 − 1W
Apr 25at TEX3 − 4L
Apr 24at TEX8 − 1W
Apr 22at SEA4 − 5L
Apr 21at SEA5 − 2W