bayesRatings

Royals at Mariners

MLB · Friday, May 1 · 8:45 PM CT · T-Mobile Park · Final KC 7 – SEA 6
← MLB / May 1

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
KC4000020107100
SEA200011200661
Team box
KC·SEA
10
hits
6
2
home runs
4
2
walks
5
7
strikeouts
13
161
pitches thrown
134
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Julio RodriguezSEA2-4224
Vinnie PasquantinoKC2-5212
Salvador PerezKC2-4202
Jac CaglianoneKC1-3111
Connor JoeSEA1-2111
Randy ArozarenaSEA1-4111
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Cole RagansKC5.14438
Daniel Lynch IV (W)KC1.02202
Lucas Erceg (S)KC1.00001
Bryan WooSEA6.07602
Jose Ferrer (L)SEA1.03101

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SEA +4
KC +4
123456789
largest lead: SEA 0 · KC 4lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was KC 45%, SEA 55% · Updated May 1

Expected margin
SEA by 0.6
Expected score
SEA 4.3 – 3.8 KC
Expected total
8.1
RoyalsThe matchupMariners
+123Our fair odds−123
3.8Expected runs4.3
−0.04Power rating+0.08
4.1Runs / game4.2
4.8Allowed / game4.0
7.9Hits / game7.8
1.00Home runs / game1.06
3.7Walks drawn / game3.9
12−19Season record16−16
5−5Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
KC chance · SEA chance
Our model fair44.9%55.1%
Kalshi45.7%58.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:45 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
KCKansas City Royals+12345%+11945.7%———
SEASeattle Mariners−12355%−14258.7%———
SpreadSEA by 0.6
KCKansas City Royals+0.6our margin————
SEASeattle Mariners−0.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.1
Over8.1our total————
Under8.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Seattle Mariners by 0.6 expected
Kansas City Royals by 13 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 12 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 11 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 10 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 9 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 8 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 7 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 6 runs: 2%Kansas City Royals by 5 runs: 3%Kansas City Royals by 4 runs: 5%Kansas City Royals by 3 runs: 6%Kansas City Royals by 2 runs: 9%Kansas City Royals by 1 run: 15%Seattle Mariners by 1 run: 15%Seattle Mariners by 2 runs: 11%Seattle Mariners by 3 runs: 8%Seattle Mariners by 4 runs: 6%Seattle Mariners by 5 runs: 5%Seattle Mariners by 6 runs: 3%Seattle Mariners by 7 runs: 2%Seattle Mariners by 8 runs: 2%Seattle Mariners by 9 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 10 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 11 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 12 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 13 runs: <1%
← KC wins bySEA wins by →
Seattle Mariners wins by 2 or more40%
Seattle Mariners wins by 3 or more30%
Kansas City Royals wins by 2 or more30%
Decided by one run30%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.1 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 8%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.562%
Total over 8.542%
Total over 10.525%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
KCCole Ragans SP · last 3 starts: 16.1 IP, 4.41 ERA, 18 Kstarted
SEABryan Woo SP · last 3 starts: 17.0 IP, 6.35 ERA, 10 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
KC·SEA
Apr 30 at ATH
last game
Apr 29 at MIN
0 days
days of rest
1 day
6
games in last 7 days
6
4th straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 31+ games
KC·SEA
−0.04
rating (0 = average)
+0.08
4.1
runs / game
4.2
4.8
runs allowed / game
4.0
12−19
season record
16−16
9−7
home record
10−7
3−12
away record
6−9
L2
streak
W2
5−5
last 10
7−3
7.9
hits / game
7.8
1.00
home runs / game
1.06
3.7
walks drawn / game
3.9
8.3
batter strikeouts / game
9.0
8.5
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.1
0.29
errors / game
0.38

Rating Trend

KC · SEA · 37 days
Kansas City RoyalsSeattle Mariners
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SEA 5−5
Sep 18, 2025at KCSEA 2 − 0
Sep 17, 2025at KCKC 7 − 5
Sep 16, 2025at KCSEA 12 − 5
Jul 3, 2025at SEAKC 3 − 2
Jul 2, 2025at SEASEA 3 − 2
Jul 1, 2025at SEAKC 6 − 3
Jun 30, 2025at SEASEA 6 − 2
Jun 9, 2024at KCSEA 6 − 5
Jun 8, 2024at KCKC 8 − 4
Jun 7, 2024at KCKC 10 − 9

KC · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
Apr 30at ATH3 − 6L
Apr 29at ATH2 − 5L
Apr 28at ATH4 − 1W
Apr 26vs LAA11 − 9W
Apr 25vs LAA12 − 1W
Apr 24vs LAA6 − 3W
Apr 22vs BAL6 − 8L
Apr 21vs BAL6 − 5W
Apr 20vs BAL5 − 7L
Apr 19at NYY0 − 7L

SEA · Last 10

7−3 · streak W2
Apr 29at MIN5 − 3W
Apr 28at MIN7 − 1W
Apr 27at MIN4 − 11L
Apr 26at STL3 − 2W
Apr 25at STL11 − 9W
Apr 24at STL3 − 2W
Apr 22vs ATH5 − 4W
Apr 21vs ATH2 − 5L
Apr 20vs ATH4 − 6L
Apr 19vs TEX5 − 2W