bayesRatings

Mariners at Cardinals

MLB · Sunday, Apr 26 · 1:15 PM CT · Busch Stadium · Final SEA 3 – STL 2
← MLB / Apr 26

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
SEA000100101380
STL001001000270
Team box
SEA·STL
8
hits
7
2
home runs
2
0
walks
3
12
strikeouts
5
132
pitches thrown
157
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Nathan ChurchSTL2-4111
Rob RefsnyderSEA1-1111
Cal RaleighSEA1-4111
JJ WetherholtSTL1-5111
Cole YoungSEA2-3001
Connor JoeSEA1-4100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Emerson HancockSEA6.07224
Eduard Bazardo (W)SEA1.10001
Jose Ferrer (S)SEA1.00000
Michael McGreevySTL6.05106
JoJo Romero (L)STL1.01102

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
STL +3
SEA +3
123456789
largest lead: STL 1 · SEA 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SEA 51%, STL 49% · Updated Apr 26

Expected margin
SEA by 0.7
Expected score
SEA 4.8 – 4.2 STL
Expected total
9.0
MarinersThe matchupCardinals
−105Our fair odds+105
4.8Expected runs4.2
+0.08Power rating−0.05
4.1Runs / game4.7
3.9Allowed / game5.3
7.7Hits / game7.9
1.04Home runs / game1.23
4.0Walks drawn / game3.8
13−15Season record14−12
5−5Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SEA chance · STL chance
Our model fair51.1%48.9%
Kalshi56.7%47.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 1:15 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SEASeattle Mariners−10551%−13156.7%———
STLSt. Louis Cardinals+10549%+10947.7%———
SpreadSEA by 0.7
SEASeattle Mariners−0.7our margin————
STLSt. Louis Cardinals+0.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.0
Over9.0our total————
Under9.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Seattle Mariners by 0.7 expected
Seattle Mariners by 14 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 13 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 12 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 11 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 10 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 9 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 8 runs: 2%Seattle Mariners by 7 runs: 3%Seattle Mariners by 6 runs: 4%Seattle Mariners by 5 runs: 5%Seattle Mariners by 4 runs: 6%Seattle Mariners by 3 runs: 8%Seattle Mariners by 2 runs: 10%Seattle Mariners by 1 run: 11%St. Louis Cardinals by 1 run: 17%St. Louis Cardinals by 2 runs: 9%St. Louis Cardinals by 3 runs: 6%St. Louis Cardinals by 4 runs: 5%St. Louis Cardinals by 5 runs: 3%St. Louis Cardinals by 6 runs: 2%St. Louis Cardinals by 7 runs: 2%St. Louis Cardinals by 8 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 9 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 10 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 11 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 12 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 13 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 14 runs: <1%
← SEA wins bySTL wins by →
Seattle Mariners wins by 2 or more43%
Seattle Mariners wins by 3 or more32%
St. Louis Cardinals wins by 2 or more30%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.0 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.558%
Total over 9.540%
Total over 11.525%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
SEAEmerson Hancock SP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 4.50 ERA, 14 Kstarted
STLMichael McGreevy SP · last 3 starts: 16.2 IP, 3.78 ERA, 6 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SEA·STL
Apr 25 at STL
last game
Apr 25 vs SEA
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
3rd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 26+ games
SEA·STL
+0.08
rating (0 = average)
−0.05
4.1
runs / game
4.7
3.9
runs allowed / game
5.3
13−15
season record
14−12
10−7
home record
7−7
3−8
away record
7−5
W3
streak
L3
5−5
last 10
6−4
7.7
hits / game
7.9
1.04
home runs / game
1.23
4.0
walks drawn / game
3.8
9.0
batter strikeouts / game
8.5
8.2
pitcher strikeouts / game
6.5
0.39
errors / game
0.54

Rating Trend

SEA · STL · 32 days
Seattle MarinersSt. Louis Cardinals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · STL 2−8
Apr 25at STLSEA 11 − 9
Apr 24at STLSEA 3 − 2
Sep 10, 2025at SEASEA 4 − 2
Sep 9, 2025at SEASEA 5 − 3
Sep 8, 2025at SEASEA 4 − 2
Sep 8, 2024at STLSEA 10 − 4
Sep 7, 2024at STLSTL 2 − 0
Sep 6, 2024at STLSEA 6 − 1
Apr 23, 2023at SEASTL 7 − 3
Apr 22, 2023at SEASEA 5 − 4

SEA · Last 10

5−5 · streak W3
Apr 25at STL11 − 9W
Apr 24at STL3 − 2W
Apr 22vs ATH5 − 4W
Apr 21vs ATH2 − 5L
Apr 20vs ATH4 − 6L
Apr 19vs TEX5 − 2W
Apr 18vs TEX7 − 3W
Apr 17vs TEX0 − 5L
Apr 16at SD2 − 5L
Apr 15at SD6 − 7L

STL · Last 10

6−4 · streak L3
Apr 25vs SEA9 − 11L
Apr 24vs SEA2 − 3L
Apr 22at MIA1 − 4L
Apr 21at MIA5 − 3W
Apr 20at MIA3 − 5L
Apr 19at HOU7 − 5W
Apr 18at HOU7 − 5W
Apr 17at HOU9 − 4W
Apr 15vs CLE5 − 3W
Apr 14vs CLE6 − 5W