bayesRatings

Mariners at Cardinals

MLB · Friday, Apr 24 · 7:15 PM CT · Busch Stadium · Final SEA 3 – STL 2
← MLB / Apr 24

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
SEA010101000340
STL000200000280
Team box
SEA·STL
4
hits
8
1
home runs
0
5
walks
1
10
strikeouts
5
123
pitches thrown
144
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Masyn WinnSTL2-4002
Josh NaylorSEA1-3211
Dominic CanzoneSEA1-3001
Cole YoungSEA1-4001
Nolan GormanSTL2-4100
Randy ArozarenaSEA1-4100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
George Kirby (W)SEA6.05212
Andres Munoz (S)SEA1.01002
Andre Pallante (L)STL5.14338

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
STL +3
SEA +3
123456789
largest lead: STL 0 · SEA 2lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SEA 50%, STL 50% · Updated Apr 24

Expected margin
SEA by 0.6
Expected score
SEA 4.7 – 4.1 STL
Expected total
8.8
MarinersThe matchupCardinals
−101Our fair odds+101
4.7Expected runs4.1
+0.06Power rating−0.03
3.9Runs / game4.7
3.8Allowed / game5.1
7.4Hits / game7.6
0.96Home runs / game1.12
4.0Walks drawn / game4.0
11−15Season record14−10
4−6Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SEA chance · STL chance
Our model fair50.2%49.8%
Kalshi58.7%45.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 7:15 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SEASeattle Mariners−10150%−14258.7%———
STLSt. Louis Cardinals+10150%+11945.7%———
SpreadSEA by 0.6
SEASeattle Mariners−0.6our margin————
STLSt. Louis Cardinals+0.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.8
Over8.8our total————
Under8.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Seattle Mariners by 0.6 expected
Seattle Mariners by 14 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 13 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 12 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 11 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 10 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 9 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 8 runs: 2%Seattle Mariners by 7 runs: 3%Seattle Mariners by 6 runs: 4%Seattle Mariners by 5 runs: 5%Seattle Mariners by 4 runs: 6%Seattle Mariners by 3 runs: 8%Seattle Mariners by 2 runs: 10%Seattle Mariners by 1 run: 11%St. Louis Cardinals by 1 run: 17%St. Louis Cardinals by 2 runs: 9%St. Louis Cardinals by 3 runs: 6%St. Louis Cardinals by 4 runs: 5%St. Louis Cardinals by 5 runs: 3%St. Louis Cardinals by 6 runs: 2%St. Louis Cardinals by 7 runs: 2%St. Louis Cardinals by 8 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 9 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 10 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 11 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 12 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 13 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 14 runs: <1%
← SEA wins bySTL wins by →
Seattle Mariners wins by 2 or more42%
Seattle Mariners wins by 3 or more31%
St. Louis Cardinals wins by 2 or more30%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.8 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.568%
Total over 8.548%
Total over 10.531%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
SEAGeorge Kirby SP · last 3 starts: 21.1 IP, 2.53 ERA, 15 Kstarted
STLAndre Pallante SP · last 3 starts: 15.0 IP, 5.40 ERA, 9 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SEA·STL
Apr 22 vs ATH
last game
Apr 22 at MIA
1 day
days of rest
1 day
6
games in last 7 days
6
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 24+ games
SEA·STL
+0.06
rating (0 = average)
−0.03
3.9
runs / game
4.7
3.8
runs allowed / game
5.1
11−15
season record
14−10
10−7
home record
7−5
1−8
away record
7−5
W1
streak
L1
4−6
last 10
6−4
7.4
hits / game
7.6
0.96
home runs / game
1.12
4.0
walks drawn / game
4.0
9.1
batter strikeouts / game
8.7
8.3
pitcher strikeouts / game
6.4
0.42
errors / game
0.58

Rating Trend

SEA · STL · 30 days
Seattle MarinersSt. Louis Cardinals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · STL 2−7
Sep 10, 2025at SEASEA 4 − 2
Sep 9, 2025at SEASEA 5 − 3
Sep 8, 2025at SEASEA 4 − 2
Sep 8, 2024at STLSEA 10 − 4
Sep 7, 2024at STLSTL 2 − 0
Sep 6, 2024at STLSEA 6 − 1
Apr 23, 2023at SEASTL 7 − 3
Apr 22, 2023at SEASEA 5 − 4
Apr 21, 2023at SEASEA 5 − 2

SEA · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Apr 22vs ATH5 − 4W
Apr 21vs ATH2 − 5L
Apr 20vs ATH4 − 6L
Apr 19vs TEX5 − 2W
Apr 18vs TEX7 − 3W
Apr 17vs TEX0 − 5L
Apr 16at SD2 − 5L
Apr 15at SD6 − 7L
Apr 14at SD1 − 4L
Apr 13vs HOU6 − 2W

STL · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Apr 22at MIA1 − 4L
Apr 21at MIA5 − 3W
Apr 20at MIA3 − 5L
Apr 19at HOU7 − 5W
Apr 18at HOU7 − 5W
Apr 17at HOU9 − 4W
Apr 15vs CLE5 − 3W
Apr 14vs CLE6 − 5W
Apr 13vs CLE3 − 9L
Apr 12vs BOS3 − 9L