bayesRatings

Cardinals at Marlins

MLB · Wednesday, Apr 22 · 11:10 AM CT · loanDepot park · Final STL 1 – MIA 4
← MLB / Apr 22

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
STL000000001141
MIA020110004121
Team box
STL·MIA
4
hits
12
1
home runs
0
2
walks
3
9
strikeouts
5
132
pitches thrown
112
1
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Ivan HerreraSTL1-4111
Jakob MarseeMIA1-4002
Javier SanojaMIA3-4000
Agustin RamirezMIA2-3101
Heriberto HernandezMIA2-4100
Owen CaissieMIA1-4001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Kyle Leahy (L)STL5.08432
Janson Junk (W)MIA5.01012
Pete Fairbanks (S)MIA0.20001

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIA +4
STL +4
123456789
largest lead: MIA 4 · STL 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was STL 50%, MIA 50% · Updated Apr 22

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
STL 4.8 – 4.7 MIA
Expected total
9.4
CardinalsThe matchupMarlins
+102Our fair odds−102
4.8Expected runs4.7
−0.02Power rating−0.08
4.8Runs / game4.5
5.2Allowed / game4.5
7.8Hits / game8.4
1.13Home runs / game0.71
4.0Walks drawn / game3.4
14−9Season record11−13
6−4Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
STL chance · MIA chance
Our model fair49.5%50.5%
Kalshi44.7%59.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 11:10 AM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
STLSt. Louis Cardinals+10250%+12444.7%———
MIAMiami Marlins−10250%−14859.7%———
Spreadabout even
STLSt. Louis Cardinals−0.1our margin————
MIAMiami Marlins+0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.4
Over9.4our total————
Under9.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
St. Louis Cardinals by 13 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 12 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 11 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 10 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 9 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 8 runs: 2%St. Louis Cardinals by 7 runs: 2%St. Louis Cardinals by 6 runs: 3%St. Louis Cardinals by 5 runs: 4%St. Louis Cardinals by 4 runs: 6%St. Louis Cardinals by 3 runs: 7%St. Louis Cardinals by 2 runs: 10%St. Louis Cardinals by 1 run: 12%Miami Marlins by 1 run: 15%Miami Marlins by 2 runs: 9%Miami Marlins by 3 runs: 7%Miami Marlins by 4 runs: 5%Miami Marlins by 5 runs: 4%Miami Marlins by 6 runs: 3%Miami Marlins by 7 runs: 2%Miami Marlins by 8 runs: 2%Miami Marlins by 9 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 10 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 11 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 12 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 13 runs: <1%
← STL wins byMIA wins by →
St. Louis Cardinals wins by 2 or more38%
St. Louis Cardinals wins by 3 or more28%
Miami Marlins wins by 2 or more36%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.4 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.561%
Total over 9.543%
Total over 11.528%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
STLKyle Leahy SP · last 3 starts: 14.0 IP, 4.50 ERA, 12 Kstarted
MIAJanson Junk SP · last 3 starts: 17.2 IP, 4.58 ERA, 10 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
STL·MIA
Apr 21 at MIA
last game
Apr 21 vs STL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
6th straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 23+ games
STL·MIA
−0.02
rating (0 = average)
−0.08
4.8
runs / game
4.5
5.2
runs allowed / game
4.5
14−9
season record
11−13
7−5
home record
9−6
7−4
away record
2−7
W1
streak
L1
6−4
last 10
3−7
7.8
hits / game
8.4
1.13
home runs / game
0.71
4.0
walks drawn / game
3.4
8.7
batter strikeouts / game
7.9
6.5
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.0
0.57
errors / game
0.79

Rating Trend

STL · MIA · 28 days
St. Louis CardinalsMiami Marlins
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIA 6−4
Apr 21at MIASTL 5 − 3
Apr 20at MIAMIA 5 − 3
Aug 20, 2025at MIAMIA 6 − 2
Aug 19, 2025at MIASTL 7 − 4
Aug 18, 2025at MIASTL 8 − 3
Jul 30, 2025at STLMIA 2 − 0
Jul 29, 2025at STLMIA 5 − 0
Jul 28, 2025at STLSTL 7 − 1
Jun 19, 2024at MIAMIA 4 − 3
Jun 18, 2024at MIAMIA 9 − 8

STL · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Apr 21at MIA5 − 3W
Apr 20at MIA3 − 5L
Apr 19at HOU7 − 5W
Apr 18at HOU7 − 5W
Apr 17at HOU9 − 4W
Apr 15vs CLE5 − 3W
Apr 14vs CLE6 − 5W
Apr 13vs CLE3 − 9L
Apr 12vs BOS3 − 9L
Apr 11vs BOS1 − 7L

MIA · Last 10

3−7 · streak L1
Apr 21vs STL3 − 5L
Apr 20vs STL5 − 3W
Apr 19vs MIL5 − 3W
Apr 18vs MIL2 − 5L
Apr 17vs MIL5 − 7L
Apr 15at ATL3 − 6L
Apr 14at ATL5 − 6L
Apr 13at ATL10 − 4W
Apr 12at DET2 − 8L
Apr 11at DET1 − 6L