bayesRatings

Cardinals at Marlins

MLB · Monday, Apr 20 · 5:40 PM CT · loanDepot park · Final STL 3 – MIA 5
← MLB / Apr 20

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
STL000101001350
MIA00011201560
Team box
STL·MIA
5
hits
6
0
home runs
1
2
walks
6
13
strikeouts
4
125
pitches thrown
147
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Liam HicksMIA2-4002
Agustin RamirezMIA1-4111
Masyn WinnSTL2-3101
Xavier EdwardsMIA1-2001
Otto LopezMIA1-3201
Ramon UriasSTL1-3001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Michael McGreevy (L)STL5.25423
Max MeyerMIA5.13228
Calvin Faucher (W)MIA0.21001
Pete Fairbanks (S)MIA1.01102

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIA +3
STL +3
123456789
largest lead: MIA 3 · STL 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was STL 49%, MIA 51% · Updated Apr 20

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
STL 4.8 – 4.8 MIA
Expected total
9.6
CardinalsThe matchupMarlins
+103Our fair odds−103
4.8Expected runs4.8
−0.02Power rating−0.08
4.9Runs / game4.5
5.3Allowed / game4.6
7.8Hits / game8.5
1.19Home runs / game0.68
4.2Walks drawn / game3.3
13−8Season record10−12
7−3Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
STL chance · MIA chance
Our model fair49.2%50.8%
Kalshi47.7%58.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
STLSt. Louis Cardinals+10349%+10947.7%———
MIAMiami Marlins−10351%−14258.7%———
Spreadabout even
STLSt. Louis Cardinals−0.1our margin————
MIAMiami Marlins+0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.6
Over9.6our total————
Under9.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
St. Louis Cardinals by 14 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 13 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 12 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 11 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 10 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 9 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 8 runs: 2%St. Louis Cardinals by 7 runs: 2%St. Louis Cardinals by 6 runs: 3%St. Louis Cardinals by 5 runs: 4%St. Louis Cardinals by 4 runs: 6%St. Louis Cardinals by 3 runs: 7%St. Louis Cardinals by 2 runs: 9%St. Louis Cardinals by 1 run: 11%Miami Marlins by 1 run: 15%Miami Marlins by 2 runs: 9%Miami Marlins by 3 runs: 7%Miami Marlins by 4 runs: 5%Miami Marlins by 5 runs: 4%Miami Marlins by 6 runs: 3%Miami Marlins by 7 runs: 2%Miami Marlins by 8 runs: 2%Miami Marlins by 9 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 10 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 11 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 12 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 13 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 14 runs: <1%
← STL wins byMIA wins by →
St. Louis Cardinals wins by 2 or more38%
St. Louis Cardinals wins by 3 or more28%
Miami Marlins wins by 2 or more36%
Decided by one run26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.6 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 6%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.563%
Total over 9.545%
Total over 11.530%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
STLMichael McGreevy SP · last 3 starts: 15.2 IP, 3.45 ERA, 7 Kstarted
MIAMax Meyer SP · last 3 starts: 14.2 IP, 3.68 ERA, 15 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
STL·MIA
Apr 19 at HOU
last game
Apr 19 vs MIL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
4th straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 21+ games
STL·MIA
−0.02
rating (0 = average)
−0.08
4.9
runs / game
4.5
5.3
runs allowed / game
4.6
13−8
season record
10−12
7−5
home record
8−5
6−3
away record
2−7
W5
streak
W1
7−3
last 10
3−7
7.8
hits / game
8.5
1.19
home runs / game
0.68
4.2
walks drawn / game
3.3
8.3
batter strikeouts / game
8.0
6.5
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.6
0.57
errors / game
0.86

Rating Trend

STL · MIA · 26 days
St. Louis CardinalsMiami Marlins
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIA 6−4
Aug 20, 2025at MIAMIA 6 − 2
Aug 19, 2025at MIASTL 7 − 4
Aug 18, 2025at MIASTL 8 − 3
Jul 30, 2025at STLMIA 2 − 0
Jul 29, 2025at STLMIA 5 − 0
Jul 28, 2025at STLSTL 7 − 1
Jun 19, 2024at MIAMIA 4 − 3
Jun 18, 2024at MIAMIA 9 − 8
Jun 17, 2024at MIASTL 7 − 6
Apr 7, 2024at STLMIA 10 − 3

STL · Last 10

7−3 · streak W5
Apr 19at HOU7 − 5W
Apr 18at HOU7 − 5W
Apr 17at HOU9 − 4W
Apr 15vs CLE5 − 3W
Apr 14vs CLE6 − 5W
Apr 13vs CLE3 − 9L
Apr 12vs BOS3 − 9L
Apr 11vs BOS1 − 7L
Apr 10vs BOS3 − 2W
Apr 8at WSH6 − 1W

MIA · Last 10

3−7 · streak W1
Apr 19vs MIL5 − 3W
Apr 18vs MIL2 − 5L
Apr 17vs MIL5 − 7L
Apr 15at ATL3 − 6L
Apr 14at ATL5 − 6L
Apr 13at ATL10 − 4W
Apr 12at DET2 − 8L
Apr 11at DET1 − 6L
Apr 10at DET0 − 2L
Apr 9vs CIN8 − 1W