bayesRatings

Cardinals at Marlins

MLB · Tuesday, Apr 21 · 5:40 PM CT · loanDepot park · Final STL 5 – MIA 3
← MLB / Apr 21

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
STL1012100005101
MIA100000020380
Team box
STL·MIA
10
hits
8
1
home runs
1
2
walks
4
12
strikeouts
9
179
pitches thrown
149
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Jakob MarseeMIA3-4111
Nathan ChurchSTL2-4112
Alec BurlesonSTL2-4102
Heriberto HernandezMIA1-1002
Xavier EdwardsMIA2-4100
Nolan GormanSTL1-4001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Dustin May (W)STL5.16115
Riley O'Brien (S)STL1.01001
Chris Paddack (L)MIA4.28517

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIA +4
STL +4
123456789
largest lead: MIA 0 · STL 4lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was STL 49%, MIA 51% · Updated Apr 21

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
STL 4.8 – 4.7 MIA
Expected total
9.5
CardinalsThe matchupMarlins
+104Our fair odds−104
4.8Expected runs4.7
−0.03Power rating−0.08
4.8Runs / game4.6
5.3Allowed / game4.5
7.7Hits / game8.4
1.14Home runs / game0.70
4.1Walks drawn / game3.4
13−9Season record11−12
6−4Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
STL chance · MIA chance
Our model fair49.0%51.0%
Kalshi49.7%54.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
STLSt. Louis Cardinals+10449%+10149.7%———
MIAMiami Marlins−10451%−12154.7%———
Spreadabout even
STLSt. Louis Cardinals−0.1our margin————
MIAMiami Marlins+0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.5
Over9.5our total————
Under9.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
St. Louis Cardinals by 13 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 12 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 11 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 10 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 9 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 8 runs: 2%St. Louis Cardinals by 7 runs: 2%St. Louis Cardinals by 6 runs: 3%St. Louis Cardinals by 5 runs: 4%St. Louis Cardinals by 4 runs: 6%St. Louis Cardinals by 3 runs: 7%St. Louis Cardinals by 2 runs: 10%St. Louis Cardinals by 1 run: 11%Miami Marlins by 1 run: 15%Miami Marlins by 2 runs: 9%Miami Marlins by 3 runs: 7%Miami Marlins by 4 runs: 5%Miami Marlins by 5 runs: 4%Miami Marlins by 6 runs: 3%Miami Marlins by 7 runs: 2%Miami Marlins by 8 runs: 2%Miami Marlins by 9 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 10 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 11 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 12 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 13 runs: <1%
← STL wins byMIA wins by →
St. Louis Cardinals wins by 2 or more38%
St. Louis Cardinals wins by 3 or more28%
Miami Marlins wins by 2 or more36%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.5 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.562%
Total over 9.544%
Total over 11.529%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
STLDustin May SP · last 3 starts: 15.1 IP, 5.28 ERA, 12 Kstarted
MIAChris Paddack SP · last 3 starts: 14.2 IP, 7.36 ERA, 14 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
STL·MIA
Apr 20 at MIA
last game
Apr 20 vs STL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
5th straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 22+ games
STL·MIA
−0.03
rating (0 = average)
−0.08
4.8
runs / game
4.6
5.3
runs allowed / game
4.5
13−9
season record
11−12
7−5
home record
9−5
6−4
away record
2−7
L1
streak
W2
6−4
last 10
3−7
7.7
hits / game
8.4
1.14
home runs / game
0.70
4.1
walks drawn / game
3.4
8.5
batter strikeouts / game
7.9
6.4
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.8
0.55
errors / game
0.83

Rating Trend

STL · MIA · 27 days
St. Louis CardinalsMiami Marlins
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIA 6−4
Apr 20at MIAMIA 5 − 3
Aug 20, 2025at MIAMIA 6 − 2
Aug 19, 2025at MIASTL 7 − 4
Aug 18, 2025at MIASTL 8 − 3
Jul 30, 2025at STLMIA 2 − 0
Jul 29, 2025at STLMIA 5 − 0
Jul 28, 2025at STLSTL 7 − 1
Jun 19, 2024at MIAMIA 4 − 3
Jun 18, 2024at MIAMIA 9 − 8
Jun 17, 2024at MIASTL 7 − 6

STL · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Apr 20at MIA3 − 5L
Apr 19at HOU7 − 5W
Apr 18at HOU7 − 5W
Apr 17at HOU9 − 4W
Apr 15vs CLE5 − 3W
Apr 14vs CLE6 − 5W
Apr 13vs CLE3 − 9L
Apr 12vs BOS3 − 9L
Apr 11vs BOS1 − 7L
Apr 10vs BOS3 − 2W

MIA · Last 10

3−7 · streak W2
Apr 20vs STL5 − 3W
Apr 19vs MIL5 − 3W
Apr 18vs MIL2 − 5L
Apr 17vs MIL5 − 7L
Apr 15at ATL3 − 6L
Apr 14at ATL5 − 6L
Apr 13at ATL10 − 4W
Apr 12at DET2 − 8L
Apr 11at DET1 − 6L
Apr 10at DET0 − 2L