bayesRatings

Mariners at Cardinals

MLB · Saturday, Apr 25 · 1:15 PM CT · Busch Stadium · Final SEA 11 – STL 9
← MLB / Apr 25

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
SEA22011102211190
STL2140002009140
Team box
SEA·STL
19
hits
14
3
home runs
5
3
walks
2
6
strikeouts
7
145
pitches thrown
177
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Nathan ChurchSTL2-4224
Julio RodriguezSEA3-6212
Pedro PagesSTL3-3112
Cole YoungSEA3-4311
JJ WetherholtSTL3-5111
Will WilsonSEA1-2112
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Bryan WooSEA3.09701
Matt Brash (W)SEA1.00001
Andres Munoz (S)SEA1.00011
Matthew LiberatoreSTL3.18513
Riley O'Brien (L)STL1.04211

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
STL +3
SEA +3
123456789
largest lead: STL 3 · SEA 2lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SEA 51%, STL 49% · Updated Apr 25

Expected margin
SEA by 0.6
Expected score
SEA 4.6 – 4.0 STL
Expected total
8.7
MarinersThe matchupCardinals
−103Our fair odds+103
4.6Expected runs4.0
+0.07Power rating−0.04
3.9Runs / game4.6
3.7Allowed / game5.0
7.3Hits / game7.6
0.96Home runs / game1.08
4.1Walks drawn / game3.8
12−15Season record14−11
4−6Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SEA chance · STL chance
Our model fair50.6%49.4%
Kalshi59.7%45.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 1:15 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SEASeattle Mariners−10351%−14859.7%———
STLSt. Louis Cardinals+10349%+11945.7%———
SpreadSEA by 0.6
SEASeattle Mariners−0.6our margin————
STLSt. Louis Cardinals+0.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.7
Over8.7our total————
Under8.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Seattle Mariners by 0.6 expected
Seattle Mariners by 13 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 12 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 11 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 10 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 9 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 8 runs: 2%Seattle Mariners by 7 runs: 3%Seattle Mariners by 6 runs: 4%Seattle Mariners by 5 runs: 5%Seattle Mariners by 4 runs: 6%Seattle Mariners by 3 runs: 8%Seattle Mariners by 2 runs: 10%Seattle Mariners by 1 run: 11%St. Louis Cardinals by 1 run: 17%St. Louis Cardinals by 2 runs: 9%St. Louis Cardinals by 3 runs: 6%St. Louis Cardinals by 4 runs: 5%St. Louis Cardinals by 5 runs: 3%St. Louis Cardinals by 6 runs: 2%St. Louis Cardinals by 7 runs: 2%St. Louis Cardinals by 8 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 9 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 10 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 11 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 12 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 13 runs: <1%
← SEA wins bySTL wins by →
Seattle Mariners wins by 2 or more41%
Seattle Mariners wins by 3 or more31%
St. Louis Cardinals wins by 2 or more30%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.7 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.567%
Total over 8.547%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
SEABryan Woo SP · last 3 starts: 19.0 IP, 2.84 ERA, 11 Kstarted
STLMatthew Liberatore SP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 5.06 ERA, 12 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SEA·STL
Apr 24 at STL
last game
Apr 24 vs SEA
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 25+ games
SEA·STL
+0.07
rating (0 = average)
−0.04
3.9
runs / game
4.6
3.7
runs allowed / game
5.0
12−15
season record
14−11
10−7
home record
7−6
2−8
away record
7−5
W2
streak
L2
4−6
last 10
6−4
7.3
hits / game
7.6
0.96
home runs / game
1.08
4.1
walks drawn / game
3.8
9.1
batter strikeouts / game
8.5
8.2
pitcher strikeouts / game
6.6
0.41
errors / game
0.56

Rating Trend

SEA · STL · 31 days
Seattle MarinersSt. Louis Cardinals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · STL 2−8
Apr 24at STLSEA 3 − 2
Sep 10, 2025at SEASEA 4 − 2
Sep 9, 2025at SEASEA 5 − 3
Sep 8, 2025at SEASEA 4 − 2
Sep 8, 2024at STLSEA 10 − 4
Sep 7, 2024at STLSTL 2 − 0
Sep 6, 2024at STLSEA 6 − 1
Apr 23, 2023at SEASTL 7 − 3
Apr 22, 2023at SEASEA 5 − 4
Apr 21, 2023at SEASEA 5 − 2

SEA · Last 10

4−6 · streak W2
Apr 24at STL3 − 2W
Apr 22vs ATH5 − 4W
Apr 21vs ATH2 − 5L
Apr 20vs ATH4 − 6L
Apr 19vs TEX5 − 2W
Apr 18vs TEX7 − 3W
Apr 17vs TEX0 − 5L
Apr 16at SD2 − 5L
Apr 15at SD6 − 7L
Apr 14at SD1 − 4L

STL · Last 10

6−4 · streak L2
Apr 24vs SEA2 − 3L
Apr 22at MIA1 − 4L
Apr 21at MIA5 − 3W
Apr 20at MIA3 − 5L
Apr 19at HOU7 − 5W
Apr 18at HOU7 − 5W
Apr 17at HOU9 − 4W
Apr 15vs CLE5 − 3W
Apr 14vs CLE6 − 5W
Apr 13vs CLE3 − 9L